Bills vs Chiefs Prediction: AFC Divisional Picks, Live Odds & Start Time

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The Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) meet the Buffalo Bills (11-6) in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, January 21, 2024.

Bills vs. Chiefs Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 2.5 points, with oddsmakers listing the Bills as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Bills have -148 odds to pick up the win, while the Chiefs are listed at +124 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 45.5 points.

Game Info

How to Watch Bills vs. Chiefs Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, January 21, 2024
  • Game Time: 6:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Orchard Park, New York
  • Stadium: Highmark Stadium

Betting Preview


The Bills have the ninth-ranked defense this season (307.2 yards allowed per game), and they’ve been more effective offensively, ranking fourth-best with 374.5 yards per game. The Bills rank sixth in points scored this season (26.5 points per game), but they’ve been thriving on defense, ranking fourth-best in the NFL with 18.3 points allowed per game.

The Bills are putting up 244.4 passing yards per game on offense (eighth in the NFL), and they rank seventh on the other side of the ball with 196.6 passing yards allowed per game. The Bills are totaling 130.1 rushing yards per game on offense, which ranks them seventh in the NFL. On defense, they rank 15th, allowing 110.6 rushing yards per contest.

The Bills have the 18th-ranked defense this season in terms of third-down efficiency (38.6% third-down percentage allowed), and they’ve been better offensively, ranking best with a 49.8% third-down conversion rate. Offensively, the Bills have been a top-five unit in terms of yards per play, ranking fifth-best in the NFL by putting up 5.7 yards per play. They rank 10th on defense (5.1 yards per play allowed). The Bills own the 12th-ranked turnover margin in the NFL at +2, forcing 30 turnovers (third in NFL) while turning it over 28 times (23rd in NFL).


The Chiefs rank ninth in the NFL with 351.3 total yards per contest, but they’ve been carried by their defense, which ranks second-best by giving up only 289.8 total yards per game. The Chiefs’ defensive unit has been paving the way for the team, as they rank second-best in the NFL with 17.3 points conceded per game. In terms of offense, they are accumulating 21.8 points per game, which ranks 15th.

The Chiefs rank sixth in the NFL with 246.4 passing yards per game, but they’ve been lifted up by their defense, which ranks fourth-best by allowing just 176.5 passing yards per game. From an offensive perspective, the Chiefs are generating 104.9 rushing yards per contest (19th-ranked). They rank 17th in the NFL on the other side of the ball (113.2 rushing yards surrendered per game).

The Chiefs are putting up a 43.6% third-down conversion percentage on offense this season (sixth-ranked). Meanwhile, they are surrendering a 37.1% third-down rate (10th-ranked) on defense. The Chiefs have been dominant on defense in terms of yards per play, surrendering just 4.7 (fourth-best). Offensively, they rank ninth in the NFL by racking up 5.5 yards per play. The Chiefs sport a bottom-five turnover margin this season, fifth-worst at -11.

Bills vs. Chiefs Injury Report


Player Pos. Injury Status
Poona Ford DT Gameday inactive Out
Rasul Douglas CB Knee Probable
Baylon Spector LB Back Out
Sam Martin P Hamstring Probable
Gabriel Davis WR Knee Out
Taron Johnson CB Concussion Probable
Christian Benford CB Knee Out
Terrel Bernard LB Ankle Out
Alec Anderson OT Gameday inactive Out


Player Pos. Injury Status
Kadarius Toney WR Hip Out
Skyy Moore WR Knee Questionable
Charles Omenihu DE Illness Probable
Willie Gay Jr. LB Neck Probable
Derrick Nnadi DT Tricep Out
Neil Farrell Jr. DE Gameday inactive Out
Justyn Ross WR Hamstring Probable
Ekow Boye-Doe CB Gameday inactive Out
Felix Anudike-Uzomah DE Gameday inactive Out
BJ Thompson DE Gameday inactive Out
Cam Jones LB Chest Out

Bills vs. Chiefs Betting Analysis

Bills Betting Insights

The Bills’ record against the spread during the regular season was 7-10-0. They are 1-0-0 versus the spread in the postseason. The Bills’ ATS record as 2.5-point favorites or more is 7-8 (in the regular season and playoffs).

The Bills had six of their 17 games hit the over during the regular season. Meanwhile, they have eclipsed the over in one of one game in the postseason. The Bills put together a 10-4 record in games they were favored on the moneyline in the regular season (winning 71.4% of those games), and they have a record of 1-0 when favored on the moneyline in the postseason.

When they have played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -148 or shorter in the regular season and playoffs, the Bills have a 9-3 record (winning 75% of their games).

Chiefs Betting Insights

The Chiefs covered the spread nine times in 17 games during the regular season, and are 1-0-0 ATS in the postseason. The Chiefs are yet to lose ATS (1-0) as 2.5-point underdogs or more in the regular season and playoffs.

In 17 Chiefs games during the regular season, five of them hit the over, and it’s been zero of one in the playoffs. The Chiefs won both games they played as underdogs in the regular season, and are 0-0 in the playoffs.

The Chiefs have been underdogs of +124 or more once, including the regular season and playoffs, and they won that game.

Bills vs. Chiefs Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away Playoffs
Point Total AVG 46.1 45.7 46.4 39.0
Implied Team Total AVG 26.5 27.2 25.6 25.0
ATS Record 7-10-0 4-5-0 3-5-0 1-0-0
Over/Under Record 6-11-0 3-6-0 3-5-0 1-0-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 10-4 7-2 3-2 1-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-2 0-0 1-2 0-0


Overall Home Away Playoffs
Point Total AVG 45.9 47.8 43.7 43.5
Implied Team Total AVG 26.1 27.0 25.1 24.0
ATS Record 9-7-1 5-4-0 4-3-1 1-0-0
Over/Under Record 5-11-1 1-7-1 4-4-0 0-1-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 9-6 4-4 5-2 1-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-0 1-0 1-0 0-0

Players to Watch


  • Josh Allen ranks fourth in the NFL with 4,306 passing yards in 17 games this year, averaging 253.3 per game with a 66.5% completion percentage and 29 touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) against 18 interceptions.
  • He has tacked on 524 rushing yards (30.8 per game) and 15 touchdowns on the ground.
  • James Cook’s rushing output this season includes 1,122 yards (fourth in the NFL) and two TDs. He is averaging 66.0 yards per game and 4.7 per attempt (ninth in the NFL).
  • Cook’s 54 targets through the air have turned into 44 catches (2.6 per game) for 445 yards (26.2 per game) and four touchdowns.
  • In 17 games played, Stefon Diggs is averaging 69.6 yards and 6.3 receptions per game on the way to 1,183 receiving yards and 107 catches (seventh in the NFL). He’s been targeted 160 times, and has eight receiving touchdowns (eighth in the NFL).
  • Dalton Kincaid has 73 catches for 673 yards and two touchdowns. He’s been targeted 91 times in the air attack, and averages 4.6 receptions and 42.1 yards through 16 games played.
  • On the defensive side for the Bills, Terrel Bernard has powered the unit with 143 tackles, 10.0 TFL, 6.5 sacks, and three interceptions in 2023.
  • Taron Johnson has 98 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and 1.0 sack this season. He’s third on the Bills in tackles.
  • Ed Oliver has put up 51 tackles, 14.0 TFL, 9.5 sacks, and one interception this year.
  • Rasul Douglas has five interceptions (fourth in the NFL) while tacking on 61 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and 14 passes defended.


  • In 16 games played this year, Patrick Mahomes II has racked up 4,183 passing yards (sixth-best in the NFL), with 27 touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) against 14 interceptions and completing 67.2% of his passes.
  • On the ground, Mahomes has added 389 rushing yards (second on the Chiefs).
  • Isiah Pacheco has 935 rushing yards (leading the Chiefs) and seven rushing touchdowns, while averaging 66.8 yards per game and 4.6 per attempt (11th in the NFL).
  • Pacheco also has 44 catches for 244 yards (sixth on the Chiefs), with two receiving touchdowns. He has been targeted 49 times and averages 17.4 yards per game.
  • So far this season, Rashee Rice has caught 79 passes for 938 receiving yards with seven touchdowns in the passing game. He has been targeted 102 total times and is averaging 4.9 receptions per game in 16 games played.
  • Travis Kelce has 93 catches for 984 yards and five receiving touchdowns. He averages 6.2 yards per game through 15 games and has been targeted 121 times.
  • Justin Reid’s 2023 showing includes 95 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 3.0 sacks, and one interception through 16 games. He leads the Chiefs in tackles.
  • Trent McDuffie has 80 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and 3.0 sacks. He is second on the Chiefs in tackles.
  • L’Jarius Sneed has 78 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and two interceptions in the 2023 campaign. He is third on the Chiefs in tackles.
  • Chris Jones’ season stats include 30 tackles, 13.0 TFL, and 10.5 sacks in 16 games.

Bills vs. Chiefs Predictions and Pick

Our pick to win this matchup is the Bills, and we predict that Bills will cover the spread (Bills -2.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 45.5 points.

How to Bet on Bills vs. Chiefs

You can bet this Bills vs. Chiefs pick at every legal online sportsbook

You can check our live NFL lines for the latest NFL odds, including money lines, spreads, and over/under totals.

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Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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