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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) and Detroit Lions (12-5) take the field in the NFC Divisional round of the NFL Playoffs at Ford Field on Sunday, January 21, 2024.
Lions vs. Buccaneers Odds
Point Spread
The spread for this matchup is set at 6 points, with oddsmakers listing the Lions as the favorites.
Moneyline
As for the moneyline, the Lions have -278 odds to pick up the win, while the Buccaneers are listed at +225 to claim victory.
Over/Under
Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 49.5 points.
Game Info
How to Watch Lions vs. Buccaneers Live?
- Game Day: Sunday, January 21, 2024
- Game Time: 3:00 PM ET
- TV Channel: NBC
- Location: Detroit, Michigan
- Stadium: Ford Field
Betting Preview
Lions
The Lions rank 19th in total defense this year (336.1 yards allowed per game), but they’ve been thriving on the other side of the ball, ranking third-best in the NFL with 394.8 total yards per game. Offensively, the Lions have been a top-five unit, ranking fifth-best in the NFL by compiling 27.1 points per game. They rank 23rd on defense (23.2 points allowed per game).
The Lions rank 27th in pass defense this year (247.4 passing yards allowed per game), but they’ve been shining on the offensive side of the ball, ranking second-best in the NFL with 258.9 passing yards per game. The Lions have been clicking on all fronts in the running game this season, as they rank fifth-best in rushing offense (135.9 rushing yards per game) and second-best in rushing defense (88.8 rushing yards allowed per game).
The Lions are putting up a 41.5% third-down conversion rate on offense (10th in the NFL), and they rank 10th on defense with a 37.1% third-down conversion rate allowed. The Lions rank 24th in yards per play allowed this year (5.5), but they’ve been shining on the other side of the ball, ranking third-best in the NFL with 5.9 yards per play. The Lions have forced 23 total turnovers (18th in NFL) this season and have turned it over 23 times (19th in NFL) for a turnover margin of an even, 16th-ranked in the league.
Buccaneers
From an offensive angle, the Buccaneers are generating 313 total yards per contest (23rd-ranked). They rank 23rd in the NFL defensively (344.2 total yards surrendered per game). The Buccaneers are accumulating 20.5 points per game on offense this season (20th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are surrendering 19.1 points per game (sixth-ranked) on defense.
The Buccaneers have been struggling in pass defense, ranking fourth-worst with 248.9 passing yards allowed per game. They have been more effective offensively, regstering 224.2 passing yards per contest (17th-ranked). On the offensive side of the ball, the Buccaneers are a bottom-five run offense, accumulating only 88.8 rushing yards per game (worst). Fortunately, they are excelling on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 95.3 rushing yards per contest (fifth-best).
From an offensive standpoint, the Buccaneers are putting up a 41.5% third-down conversion percentage (10th-ranked). They rank 23rd in the NFL on the other side of the ball (40.9% third-down rate allowed). In terms of yards per play, the Buccaneers rank 19th in the NFL (5.1) and 20th on the other side of the ball (5.4 yards allowed per play). With 26 forced turnovers (12th in NFL) and 18 turnovers committed (sixth in NFL) this season, the Buccaneers rank ninth in the NFL with a turnover margin of +8.
Lions vs. Buccaneers Injury Report
Lions
| Player | Pos. | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalif Raymond | WR | Knee | Out |
| James Houston IV | LB | Ankle | Out |
| Hendon Hooker | QB | Gameday inactive | Out |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | Knee | Probable |
| Steven Gilmore | CB | Gameday inactive | Out |
Buccaneers
| Player | Pos. | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Edmonds | RB | Toe | Probable |
| John Wolford | QB | Illness | Out |
| JJ Russell | ILB | Gameday inactive | Out |
| Shaquil Barrett | OLB | Ankle | Probable |
| Patrick Laird | RB | Gameday inactive | Out |
| Markees Watts | OLB | Gameday inactive | Out |
| Rakim Jarrett | WR | Gameday inactive | Out |
Lions vs. Buccaneers Betting Analysis
Lions Betting Insights
Against the spread, the Lions were 12-5-0 during the season. They have an ATS record of 0-1-0 in the postseason. The Lions have two wins ATS (2-2) as a 6-point favorite or greater this season (regular season and playoffs).
In 17 Lions games in the regular season, 11 hit the over. Meanwhile, they have topped the point total in zero of one game in the postseason. The Lions won 11 of the 14 games they were favored on the moneyline during the regular season (78.6%). They are 1-0 as the moneyline favorite in the postseason.
The Lions have a 3-1 record (winning 75% of their games) in the regular season and playoffs when they have played as a moneyline favorite of -278 or shorter.
Buccaneers Betting Insights
Against the spread, the Buccaneers were 11-6-0 during the regular season and are 1-0-0 in the playoffs. As 6-point underdogs or more in the regular season and playoffs, the Buccaneers have two wins ATS (2-1).
Out of the 17 Buccaneers games during the regular season, six went over the total, and zero of one in the playoffs. The Buccaneers were underdogs in 11 games during the regular season and won five (45.5%) of those contests. They’ve gone 0-0 in the playoffs.
The Buccaneers have not won as underdogs of +225 or more in two such games, including the regular season and postseason.
Lions vs. Buccaneers Against The Spread & Betting Records
Lions
| Overall | Home | Away | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point Total AVG | 47.2 | 46.9 | 47.4 | 53 |
| Implied Team Total AVG | 25.9 | 26.6 | 25.3 | 28 |
| ATS Record | 12-5-0 | 5-3-0 | 7-2-0 | 0-1-0 |
| Over/Under Record | 11-6-0 | 6-2-0 | 5-4-0 | 0-1-0 |
| Moneyline Favorite Record | 11-3 | 6-2 | 5-1 | 1-0 |
| Moneyline Underdog Record | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Buccaneers
| Overall | Home | Away | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point Total AVG | 41.3 | 41 | 41.6 | 43 |
| Implied Team Total AVG | 23.1 | 22.3 | 23.8 | 23 |
| ATS Record | 11-6-0 | 3-5-0 | 8-1-0 | 1-0-0 |
| Over/Under Record | 6-11-0 | 2-6-0 | 4-5-0 | 0-1-0 |
| Moneyline Favorite Record | 4-2 | 3-2 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Moneyline Underdog Record | 5-6 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 1-0 |
Players to Watch
Lions
- Jared Goff has thrown for 4,575 yards (second in the NFL), 30 touchdowns (fourth in the NFL) and 12 interceptions this year. He averages 269.1 yards per game and 7.6 per attempt, while completing 67.3% of his passes.
- He has also rushed for 21 yards (seventh on the Lions) and added two touchdowns on the ground, while averaging 1.2 rushing yards per game.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has caught 119 passes (second in the NFL) on 164 targets for 1,515 total yards (third in the NFL) and 10 touchdowns. He is averaging 7.4 catches and 94.7 yards per game in 16 games.
- David Montgomery has 1,015 rushing yards (ninth in the NFL) with 13 touchdowns (72.5 yards per game across 14 games).
- Jahmyr Gibbs has run for 945 yards, averaging 63 yards per game and scoring 10 touchdowns.
- He has added 52 catches (on 71 targets) for 316 receiving yards with one touchdown. He’s averaging 21.1 receiving yards and 3.5 receptions per game.
- On defense, Aidan Hutchinson has 11.5 sacks (first on the Lions) to go with 14 TFL, 51 tackles, and one interception in 2023.
- Alex Anzalone has 129 tackles, seven TFL, and three sacks this season.
- Brian Branch has recorded 74 tackles, seven TFL, one sack, and three interceptions this year.
- Kerby Joseph has one TFL, 80 tackles, and four interceptions on the season.
Buccaneers
- Baker Mayfield is averaging 7.1 passing yards per attempt (15th in the NFL) and 237.9 yards per game this year, completing 64.3% of his passes on the way to 4,044 total yards (ninth in the NFL), 28 touchdowns (seventh in the NFL) and 10 interceptions through 17 games.
- He’s added 163 yards on the ground (third on the Buccaneers), while scoring one rushing touchdown. He’s averaging 9.6 yards per game and 2.6 per attempt.
- Rachaad White has 990 rushing yards (leading the Buccaneers) and six rushing touchdowns, while averaging 58.2 yards per game and 3.6 per carry (40th in the NFL).
- White has also picked up 549 receiving yards (32.3 per game) on 64 catches (3.8 per game). He’s been targeted 70 times and has caught three touchdown passes.
- This season, Mike Evans has caught 79 passes for 1,255 receiving yards (ninth in the NFL) with 13 touchdowns through the air (first in the NFL). He has been targeted 135 total times and is averaging 4.6 receptions per game over 17 games played.
- Chris Godwin has 1,024 receiving yards and two touchdowns from 83 receptions after getting 131 targets.
- Antoine Winfield Jr. has amassed six sacks (second on the Buccaneers) to go with six TFL, 122 tackles, and three interceptions over 17 games in 2023.
- Lavonte David has 133 tackles, 17 TFL, 4.5 sacks, and five passes defended.
- Devin White has 2.5 sacks in addition to his five TFL, 83 tackles, and two interceptions.
- Shaquil Barrett has put up 4.5 sacks (fifth on the Buccaneers) to go with three TFL, 52 tackles, and one interception over 16 games.
Lions vs. Buccaneers Predictions and Pick
Our prediction to win this matchup is the Lions, and we predict that Lions will cover the spread (Lions -6). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 49.5 points.
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