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The Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) and San Francisco 49ers (12-5) square off to determine the Super Bowl champion at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday, February 11, 2024 as the NFL Playoffs finish out.
49ers vs. Chiefs Odds
Point Spread
The spread for this matchup is set at 1.5 points, with sportsbooks listing the 49ers as the favorites.
Moneyline
As for the moneyline, the 49ers have -120 odds to pick up the win, while the Chiefs are listed at +100 to claim victory.
Over/Under
Finally, the total for the game is set at 47.5 points.
Game Info
How to Watch 49ers vs. Chiefs Live?
- Game Day: Sunday, February 11, 2024
- Game Time: 6:30 PM ET
- TV Channel: CBS
- Location: Paradise, Nevada
- Stadium: Allegiant Stadium
Betting Preview
49ers
The 49ers rank eighth in total defense this year (303.9 yards allowed per game), but they’ve been playing really well on the offensive side of the ball, ranking second-best in the NFL with 398.4 total yards per game. The 49ers have been thriving on both sides of the ball, ranking third-best in scoring offense (28.9 points per game) and third-best in scoring defense (17.5 points allowed per game).
On offense, the 49ers have been a top-five unit in terms of passing yards, ranking fourth-best in the NFL by putting up 257.9 per game. They rank 14th on defense (214.2 passing yards allowed per game). The 49ers have been firing on all cylinders in the running game this year, as they rank third-best in rushing offense (140.5 rushing yards per game) and third-best in rushing defense (89.7 rushing yards allowed per game).
Offensively, the 49ers have been a top-five unit in terms of third-down efficiency, ranking fourth-best in the NFL by putting up a 47.5% third-down percentage. They rank 23rd on defense (40.9% third-down percentage allowed). On offense, the 49ers have been a top-five unit in terms of yards per play, ranking best in the NFL by totaling 6.6 yards per play. They rank seventh on defense (5 yards per play allowed). The 49ers have forced 28 total turnovers (fifth in NFL) this season and have turned it over 18 times (sixth in NFL) for a turnover margin of +10, the fifth-best in the league.
Chiefs
The Chiefs rank ninth in the NFL with 351.3 total yards per contest, but they’ve been carried by their defense, which ranks second-best by allowing just 289.8 total yards per contest. The Chiefs’ defense has been leading the way for the team, as they rank second-best in the NFL with 17.3 points allowed per contest. In terms of offense, they are generating 21.8 points per game, which ranks 15th.
The Chiefs have been excelling on pass defense, allowing just 176.5 passing yards per contest (fourth-best). On offense, they rank sixth in the NFL by putting up 246.4 passing yards per game. From an offensive standpoint, the Chiefs are compiling 104.9 rushing yards per contest (19th-ranked). They rank 17th in the NFL on the other side of the ball (113.2 rushing yards allowed per game).
In terms of third-down efficiency, the Chiefs rank sixth in the NFL (43.6% third-down conversion rate) and 10th on the other side of the ball (37.1% third-down rate allowed). The Chiefs rank ninth in the NFL with 5.5 yards per play, but they’ve been carried by their defense, which ranks fourth-best by surrendering just 4.7 yards per play. The Chiefs have struggled in terms of turnovers, as their turnover margin of -11 is fifth-worst in the NFL.
49ers vs. Chiefs Injury Report
49ers
| Player | Pos. | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| – | – | – | – |
Chiefs
| Player | Pos. | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Thuney | OG | Pectoral | Out |
| Prince Tega Wanogho | OT | Quad | Out |
| Jerick McKinnon | RB | Groin | Questionable |
| Charles Omenihu | DE | Knee | Out |
49ers vs. Chiefs Betting Analysis
49ers Betting Insights
The 49ers’ record against the spread during the regular season was 9-8-0. They are 0-2-0 versus the spread in the postseason. As 1.5-point favorites or more, the 49ers are 9-10 against the spread (in the regular season and playoffs).
Out of 17 49ers games during the regular season, nine went over the total. In the playoffs, they have topped the point total in one of two contests. The 49ers were favored on the moneyline 17 total times during the regular season. They finished 12-5 in those games. When favored on the moneyline in the playoffs, they are 2-0.
In games they have played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -120 or shorter in the regular season and playoffs, the 49ers have gone 14-5 (73.7%).
Chiefs Betting Insights
The Chiefs beat the spread nine times in 17 games during the regular season, and are 3-0-0 ATS in the postseason. The Chiefs are yet to lose ATS (3-0) as 1.5-point underdogs or greater in the regular season and playoffs.
In the regular season, five of the Chiefs’ 17 games hit the over, and it’s been one of three in the postseason. The Chiefs won both games they played as underdogs in the regular season, and are 0-0 in the playoffs.
The Chiefs have been at least +100 moneyline underdogs three times in the regular season and playoffs, and won each of those games.
49ers vs. Chiefs Against The Spread & Betting Records
49ers
| Overall | Home | Away | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point Total AVG | 44 | 43.9 | 44.1 | 51.5 |
| Implied Team Total AVG | 26.2 | 26.8 | 25.8 | 30.5 |
| ATS Record | 9-8-0 | 3-5-0 | 6-3-0 | 0-2-0 |
| Over/Under Record | 9-7-1 | 5-3-0 | 4-4-1 | 1-1-0 |
| Moneyline Favorite Record | 12-5 | 5-3 | 7-2 | 2-0 |
| Moneyline Underdog Record | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Chiefs
| Overall | Home | Away | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point Total AVG | 45.9 | 47.8 | 43.7 | 44.3 |
| Implied Team Total AVG | 26.1 | 27 | 25.1 | 24 |
| ATS Record | 9-7-1 | 5-4-0 | 4-3-1 | 3-0-0 |
| Over/Under Record | 5-11-1 | 1-7-1 | 4-4-0 | 1-2-0 |
| Moneyline Favorite Record | 9-6 | 4-4 | 5-2 | 1-0 |
| Moneyline Underdog Record | 2-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 2-0 |
Players to Watch
49ers
- Christian McCaffrey’s rushing stat line this season includes 1,459 yards (first in the NFL) and 14 TDs. He is averaging 91.2 yards per game and 5.4 per attempt (second in the NFL).
- McCaffrey has been targeted 83 times in the receiving game and has 67 catches (4.2 per game) for 564 yards (35.3 per game) and seven TDs.
- Brock Purdy has 4,280 passing yards (fifth in the NFL), 31 touchdowns (third in the NFL) and 11 interceptions this year. He has completed 69.4% of his attempts, averaging 267.5 yards per game and 9.6 per attempt.
- He has also rushed for 144 yards (fifth on the 49ers) and added two touchdowns on the ground, while averaging 9 rushing yards per game.
- Deebo Samuel has seven touchdown catches this season, and has 60 catches for 892 yards on 89 targets, while averaging four catches and 59.5 yards per game.
- Brandon Aiyuk averages 4.7 receptions and 83.9 yards per game, and has 1,342 total receiving yards (seventh in the NFL) and 75 catches. He’s gotten 105 total targets, and has caught seven touchdown passes.
- Over on defense, Fred Warner has 133 tackles, six TFL, three sacks, and four interceptions in 2023. His tackle total leads the 49ers.
- Nick Bosa has 53 tackles, 16 TFL, 10 sacks, and four passes defended.
- Dre Greenlaw has put up 120 tackles, five TFL, and 1.5 sacks this year.
- So far this season, Charvarius Ward has 72 tackles, two TFL, and five interceptions.
Chiefs
- Patrick Mahomes II has passed for 4,183 yards this year (to rank sixth in the NFL), with 27 touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) and 14 interceptions. He is completing 67.2% of his attempts while averaging 261.4 yards per game and 7 per attempt.
- He’s added 389 yards on the ground (second on the Chiefs), while scoring zero rushing touchdowns. He’s averaging 24.3 yards per game and 5.2 per attempt.
- Isiah Pacheco averages 66.8 rushing yards per game over 14 games (935 total yards), while scoring seven rushing touchdowns.
- Pacheco has also collected 244 receiving yards (17.4 per game) on 44 catches (3.1 per game). He’s been targeted 49 times and has caught two touchdown passes.
- Rashee Rice has recorded 938 receiving yards and seven touchdowns on 79 receptions, while being targeted 102 times on the season.
- Travis Kelce has been targeted 121 times, resulting in 93 catches for 984 yards .
- So far in 2023, Justin Reid has recorded three sacks to go with five TFL, 95 tackles, and one interception through 16 games.
- Trent McDuffie has 80 tackles, three TFL, and three sacks. He is second on the Chiefs in tackles.
- L’Jarius Sneed has five TFL, 78 tackles, and two interceptions in the 2023 season.
- Chris Jones has 10.5 sacks (first on the Chiefs) as well as 13 TFL and 30 tackles.
49ers vs. Chiefs Predictions and Pick
Our pick to win this game is the 49ers, and we project that 49ers will cover the spread (49ers -1.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 47.5 points.
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