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In the NFC Championship game of the NFL Playoffs, the Detroit Lions (12-5) and San Francisco 49ers (12-5) meet on Sunday, January 28, 2024 at Levi’s Stadium.
49ers vs. Lions Odds
Point Spread
The spread for this matchup is set at 7.5 points, with sportsbooks listing the 49ers as the favorites.
Moneyline
As for the moneyline, the 49ers have -325 odds to pick up the win, while the Lions are listed at +260 to claim victory.
Over/Under
Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 52.5 points.
Game Info
How to Watch 49ers vs. Lions Live?
- Game Day: Sunday, January 28, 2024
- Game Time: 6:30 PM ET
- TV Channel: FOX
- Location: Santa Clara, California
- Stadium: Levi’s Stadium
Betting Preview
49ers
The 49ers sport the eighth-ranked defense this season (303.9 yards allowed per game), and they’ve been better on the other side of the ball, ranking second-best with 398.4 yards per game. The 49ers have been thriving on both sides of the ball, ranking third-best in scoring offense (28.9 points per game) and third-best in scoring defense (17.5 points allowed per game).
The 49ers own the 14th-ranked defense this season in terms of passing yards (214.2 allowed per game), and they’ve been better on offense, ranking fourth-best with 257.9 passing yards per game. The 49ers have been a difficult matchup for opposing teams in the running game, as they rank top-five in both rushing offense (third-best with 140.5 rushing yards per game) and rushing defense (third-best with 89.7 rushing yards allowed per game) this season.
The 49ers own the 23rd-ranked defense this season in terms of third-down efficiency (40.9% third-down conversion rate allowed), and they’ve been more effective offensively, ranking fourth-best with a 47.5% third-down conversion rate. The 49ers rank seventh in yards per play allowed this year (5), but they’ve been thriving on the other side of the ball, ranking best in the NFL with 6.6 yards per play. With 28 forced turnovers (fifth in NFL) against 18 turnovers committed (sixth in NFL), the 49ers’ +10 turnover margin is the fifth-best in the NFL.
Lions
The Lions’ offensive attack has been leading the charge for the team, as they rank third-best in the NFL with 394.8 total yards per contest. In terms of defense, they are ceding 336.1 total yards per game, which ranks 19th. The Lions’ offense has been excelling, racking up 27.1 points per game (fifth-best) this season. On defense, they rank 23rd by giving up 23.2 points per game.
The Lions’ pass defense ranks 27th in the NFL with 247.4 passing yards surrendered per contest, but they’ve been lifted up by their offense, which ranks second-best by racking up 258.9 passing yards per game. In terms of rushing, the Lions have excelled on both offense and defense this season, ranking fifth-best in rushing yards per game (135.9) and second-best in rushing yards surrendered per game (88.8).
From an offensive angle, the Lions are generating a 41.5% third-down conversion percentage (10th-ranked). They rank 10th in the NFL defensively (37.1% third-down rate allowed). The Lions’ offense has been paving the way for the team, as they rank third-best in the NFL with 5.9 yards per play. In terms of defense, they are allowing 5.5 yards per play, which ranks 24th. The Lions have produced 23 forced turnovers (18th in NFL) and committed 23 turnovers (19th in NFL) this season for a 0 turnover margin that ranks 16th in the NFL.
49ers vs. Lions Injury Report
49ers
| Player | Pos. | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oren Burks | LB | Shoulder | Questionable |
Lions
| Player | Pos. | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalif Raymond | WR | Knee | Out |
| Chase Lucas | CB | Illness | Questionable |
| Jonah Jackson | OG | Knee | Out |
| Brock Wright | TE | Forearm | Out |
| Hendon Hooker | QB | Tooth | Out |
| Jermar Jefferson | RB | Ankle | Out |
| Steven Gilmore | CB | Gameday inactive | Out |
49ers vs. Lions Betting Analysis
49ers Betting Insights
The 49ers had nine wins in 17 games against the spread during the regular season. Against the spread in the playoffs, they are 0-1-0. As 7.5-point favorites or more, the 49ers are 4-5 against the spread (in the regular season and playoffs).
Out of 17 49ers games during the regular season, nine went over the total. In the playoffs, they have topped the point total in zero of one contest. The 49ers finished with a 12-5 record in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite in the regular season (winning 70.6% of those games), and they have a record of 1-0 when favored on the moneyline in the postseason.
The 49ers have a 9-2 record (winning 81.8% of their games) in the regular season and playoffs when they have played as a moneyline favorite of -325 or shorter.
Lions Betting Insights
The Lions’ record against the spread in the regular season was 12-5-0, and in the playoffs it is 1-1-0.
There were 11 Lions games (out of 17) that went over the total in the regular season, and one (of two) in the playoffs. In the regular season, the Lions were underdogs three times and won one of those games. They have gone 0-0 in the playoffs.
The Lions have not entered a game in the regular season or playoffs with longer moneyline odds than +260.
49ers vs. Lions Against The Spread & Betting Records
49ers
| Overall | Home | Away | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point Total AVG | 44 | 43.9 | 44.1 | 50.5 |
| Implied Team Total AVG | 26.2 | 26.8 | 25.8 | 31 |
| ATS Record | 9-8-0 | 3-5-0 | 6-3-0 | 0-1-0 |
| Over/Under Record | 9-7-1 | 5-3-0 | 4-4-1 | 0-1-0 |
| Moneyline Favorite Record | 12-5 | 5-3 | 7-2 | 1-0 |
| Moneyline Underdog Record | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Lions
| Overall | Home | Away | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point Total AVG | 47.2 | 46.9 | 47.4 | 51.3 |
| Implied Team Total AVG | 25.9 | 26.6 | 25.3 | 28 |
| ATS Record | 12-5-0 | 5-3-0 | 7-2-0 | 1-1-0 |
| Over/Under Record | 11-6-0 | 6-2-0 | 5-4-0 | 1-1-0 |
| Moneyline Favorite Record | 11-3 | 6-2 | 5-1 | 2-0 |
| Moneyline Underdog Record | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Players to Watch
49ers
- Christian McCaffrey has totaled 1,459 rushing yards (first in the NFL) with 14 touchdowns (91.2 yards per game through 16 games). His 5.4 yards per attempt rank second in the league.
- McCaffrey has been targeted 83 times in the passing game and has 67 catches (4.2 per game) for 564 yards (35.3 per game) and seven TDs.
- Brock Purdy has thrown for 4,280 yards (fifth in the NFL), 31 touchdowns (third in the NFL) and 11 interceptions this year. He is averaging 267.5 yards per game and 9.6 per attempt, while completing 69.4%.
- He has also rushed for 144 yards (fifth on the 49ers) and added two touchdowns on the ground, while averaging 9 rushing yards per game.
- In 15 games played, Deebo Samuel is averaging 59.5 yards and four receptions per game on the way to 892 receiving yards and 60 catches. He’s been targeted 89 times, and has seven receiving touchdowns.
- Brandon Aiyuk has 75 catches for 1,342 yards (seventh in the NFL) and seven touchdowns. He’s been targeted 105 times in the passing game, and averages 4.7 receptions and 83.9 yards through 16 games played.
- On the defensive side for the 49ers, Fred Warner has powered the unit with 133 tackles, six TFL, three sacks, and four interceptions in 2023.
- Nick Bosa has 10 sacks (first on the 49ers) in addition to his 16 TFL and 53 tackles.
- Dre Greenlaw has recorded 120 tackles, five TFL, 1.5 sacks, and four passes defended.
- Charvarius Ward has five interceptions (fourth in the NFL) while adding 72 tackles, two TFL, and 23 passes defended.
Lions
- Jared Goff is averaging 7.6 passing yards per attempt (seventh in the NFL) and 269.1 yards per game this year, completing 67.3% of his passes on the way to 4,575 total yards (second in the NFL), 30 touchdowns (fourth in the NFL) and 12 interceptions through 17 games.
- Goff has also rushed for two touchdowns and 21 yards (seventh on the Lions).
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has 1,515 receiving yards (third in the NFL) and 10 touchdowns (fourth in the NFL) on 119 receptions (second in the NFL), while being targeted 164 times.
- David Montgomery has rushed for 13 touchdowns this year, and has totaled 1,015 rushing yards (72.5 per game and 4.6 per carry).
- Jahmyr Gibbs has 945 rushing yards (second on the Lions) and 10 rushing touchdowns, while averaging 63 yards per game and 5.2 per attempt (fifth in the NFL).
- Gibbs has tacked on 52 catches (3.5 per game) for 316 yards (21.1 per game) and one receiving touchdown. He has been on the receiving end of 71 targets.
- Aidan Hutchinson has intercepted one pass in addition to 51 tackles, 14 TFL, 11.5 sacks, and seven passes defended in 2023.
- Alex Anzalone has 129 tackles, seven TFL, and three sacks. He leads the Lions in tackles.
- Brian Branch has one sack in addition to his seven TFL, 74 tackles, and three interceptions.
- Kerby Joseph’s season stats include 80 tackles, one TFL, and four interceptions in 15 games. He is third on the Lions in tackles.
49ers vs. Lions Predictions and Pick
Our prediction to win this game is the 49ers, and we project that 49ers will cover the spread (49ers -7.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 52.5 points.
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