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The Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) and Baltimore Ravens (13-4) square off in the AFC Championship game of the NFL Playoffs at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday, January 28, 2024.
Ravens vs. Chiefs Odds
Point Spread
The spread for this matchup is set at 4.5 points, with oddsmakers listing the Ravens as the favorites.
Moneyline
As for the moneyline, the Ravens have -218 odds to pick up the win, while the Chiefs are listed at +180 to claim victory.
Over/Under
Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 44 points.
Game Info
How to Watch Ravens vs. Chiefs Live?
- Game Day: Sunday, January 28, 2024
- Game Time: 3:00 PM ET
- TV Channel: CBS
- Location: Baltimore, Maryland
- Stadium: M&T Bank Stadium
Betting Preview
Ravens
The Ravens are putting up 370.4 yards per game on offense (sixth in NFL), and they rank sixth on defense with 301.4 yards allowed per game. The Ravens have been a handful for opposing teams, as they rank top-five in both scoring offense (fourth-best with 28.4 points per game) and scoring defense (best with 16.5 points allowed per game) this season.
The Ravens are putting up 213.8 passing yards per game on offense, which ranks them 21st in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, they rank sixth, allowing 191.9 passing yards per contest. The Ravens rank 14th in run defense this year (109.4 rushing yards allowed per game), but they’ve been shining on offense, ranking best in the NFL with 156.5 rushing yards per game.
The Ravens are putting up a 42% third-down conversion rate offensively this season (eighth in NFL), and they are allowing a 36.4% third-down conversion rate (seventh) on the other side of the ball. The Ravens have been a tough matchup for opposing teams in terms of yards per play, as they rank top-five in both offensive yards per play (third-best with 5.9) and yards per play allowed on defense (best at 4.6) this season. The Ravens own the best turnover margin in the NFL at +12, forcing 31 turnovers (first in NFL) while turning it over 19 times (12th in NFL).
Chiefs
The Chiefs have been excelling on the defensive side of the ball, surrendering only 289.8 total yards per game (second-best). On offense, they rank ninth by putting up 351.3 total yards per game. The Chiefs rank 15th in the NFL with 21.8 points per game, but they’ve been carried by their defense, which ranks second-best by allowing only 17.3 points per game.
The Chiefs rank sixth in the NFL with 246.4 passing yards per game, but they’ve been led by their defense, which ranks fourth-best by allowing just 176.5 passing yards per game. With 104.9 rushing yards per game on offense, the Chiefs rank 19th in the NFL. On defense they rank 17th, giving up 113.2 rushing yards per contest.
In terms of third-down efficiency, the Chiefs rank sixth in the NFL (43.6% third-down conversion rate) and 10th on the other side of the ball (37.1% third-down rate allowed). The Chiefs rank ninth in the NFL with 5.5 yards per play, but they’ve been carried by their defense, which ranks fourth-best by surrendering only 4.7 yards per play. The Chiefs own a bottom-five turnover margin this season, fifth-worst at -11.
Ravens vs. Chiefs Injury Report
Ravens
| Player | Pos. | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | QB | Gameday inactive | Out |
| Marlon Humphrey | CB | Calf | Probable |
| Tylan Wallace | WR | Knee | Out |
| Del’Shawn Phillips | LB | Shoulder | Out |
| Sam Mustipher | C | Gameday inactive | Out |
| Rock Ya-Sin | CB | Knee | Out |
| Malik Cunningham | QB | Gameday inactive | Out |
| Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu | OT | Gameday inactive | Out |
Chiefs
| Player | Pos. | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | Ankle | Probable |
| Kadarius Toney | WR | Hip | Out |
| Willie Gay Jr. | LB | Neck | Out |
| Prince Tega Wanogho | OT | Quad | Questionable |
| Joe Thuney | OG | Pectoral | Out |
| Keith Taylor | CB | Gameday inactive | Out |
| Derrick Nnadi | DT | Tricep | Out |
| Ekow Boye-Doe | CB | Gameday inactive | Out |
| Felix Anudike-Uzomah | DE | Gameday inactive | Out |
| BJ Thompson | DE | Gameday inactive | Out |
Ravens vs. Chiefs Betting Analysis
Ravens Betting Insights
The Ravens’ record against the spread during the regular season was 11-6-0. They are 1-0-0 versus the spread in the playoffs. Against the spread as 4.5-point favorites or more, the Ravens are 4-5 (in the regular season and playoffs).
In the regular season, eight of the Ravens’ 17 games hit the over. They are zero of one in terms of topping the over/under in the playoffs. The Ravens were favored on the moneyline 14 total times during the regular season. They went 11-3 in those games. When favored on the moneyline in the playoffs, they are 1-0.
When playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -218 or shorter in the regular season and playoffs, the Ravens have a record of 7-3 (70%).
Chiefs Betting Insights
Against the spread, the Chiefs were 9-7-1 during the regular season and are 2-0-0 in the playoffs.
In 17 Chiefs games during the regular season, five of them went over the total, and it’s been one of two in the playoffs. The Chiefs won both games they played as underdogs in the regular season, and are 0-0 in the playoffs.
The Chiefs have not entered a game in the regular season or playoffs as bigger underdogs than the +180 odds they have in this game.
Ravens vs. Chiefs Against The Spread & Betting Records
Ravens
| Overall | Home | Away | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point Total AVG | 43.2 | 42.6 | 43.9 | 44 |
| Implied Team Total AVG | 24.4 | 24.2 | 24.5 | 27 |
| ATS Record | 11-6-0 | 5-4-0 | 6-2-0 | 1-0-0 |
| Over/Under Record | 8-9-0 | 5-4-0 | 3-5-0 | 0-0-1 |
| Moneyline Favorite Record | 11-3 | 6-2 | 5-1 | 1-0 |
| Moneyline Underdog Record | 2-1 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
Chiefs
| Overall | Home | Away | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point Total AVG | 45.9 | 47.8 | 43.7 | 44.5 |
| Implied Team Total AVG | 26.1 | 27 | 25.1 | 24 |
| ATS Record | 9-7-1 | 5-4-0 | 4-3-1 | 2-0-0 |
| Over/Under Record | 5-11-1 | 1-7-1 | 4-4-0 | 1-1-0 |
| Moneyline Favorite Record | 9-6 | 4-4 | 5-2 | 1-0 |
| Moneyline Underdog Record | 2-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
Players to Watch
Ravens
- Lamar Jackson has 3,678 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions this year. He has completed 67.2% of his passes, averaging 229.9 yards per game and 8 per attempt.
- He has tacked on 821 rushing yards (51.3 per game) and five touchdowns on the ground.
- Gus Edwards has racked up 810 rushing yards with 13 touchdowns (47.6 yards per game across 17 games). His 4.1 yards per attempt rank 23rd in the NFL.
- He has also caught 12 passes (on 13 targets) for 180 receiving yards with zero touchdowns. He’s averaging 10.6 receiving yards and 0.7 catches per game.
- In the passing attack, Zay Flowers, has totaled 858 receiving yards and five touchdowns after pulling down 77 balls on 108 targets. Per game, he’s averaging 53.6 yards and 4.8 receptions in 16 games.
- Mark Andrews has 45 receptions for 544 yards and six touchdowns. He’s been targeted 61 times in the passing game, and averages 4.5 receptions and 54.4 yards through 10 games played.
- On the defensive side, Roquan Smith has 158 tackles, five TFL, 1.5 sacks, and one interception in 2023. His tackle total leads the Ravens and is sixth in the NFL.
- Patrick Queen has 3.5 sacks (fifth on the Ravens) in addition to his nine TFL, 133 tackles, and one interception.
- This season, Justin Madubuike has put up 13 sacks (ninth in the NFL) as well as 12 TFL and 56 tackles.
- Kyle Hamilton has three sacks as well as 10 TFL, 81 tackles, and four interceptions on the season.
Chiefs
- Through 16 games played this year, Patrick Mahomes II has racked up 4,183 passing yards (sixth-best in the NFL), while throwing 27 touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) against 14 interceptions and completing 67.2% of his passes.
- On the ground, Mahomes has added 389 rushing yards (second on the Chiefs).
- Isiah Pacheco has scored seven rushing touchdowns, while totaling 935 rushing yards (4.6 per carry and 66.8 per game).
- Pacheco has also picked up 244 receiving yards (17.4 per game) on 44 catches (3.1 per game). He’s been targeted 49 times and has caught two touchdown passes.
- Rashee Rice has recorded 938 receiving yards and seven touchdowns on 79 receptions, while being targeted 102 times this season.
- Travis Kelce has been targeted 121 times, resulting in 93 catches for 984 yards .
- Justin Reid has put up three sacks to go with five TFL, 95 tackles, and one interception over 16 games in 2023.
- Trent McDuffie has registered three sacks in addition to his three TFL and 80 tackles through 16 games.
- L’Jarius Sneed has 78 tackles, five TFL, and two interceptions in the 2023 season. He is third on the Chiefs in tackles.
- Chris Jones has totaled 10.5 sacks (first on the Chiefs) as well as 13 TFL and 30 tackles.
Ravens vs. Chiefs Predictions and Pick
Our pick to win this contest is the Ravens, and we predict that Ravens will cover the spread (Ravens -4.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 44 points.
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