Saints vs. Falcons Prediction: Week 18 Odds, Picks & Moneyline – January 7, 2024

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An NFC South showdown between the New Orleans Saints (8-8) and Atlanta Falcons (7-9) is slated for Sunday, January 7, 2024 at Caesars Superdome.

Saints vs. Falcons Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3.5 points, with sportsbooks listing the Saints as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Saints have -175 odds to pick up the win, while the Falcons are listed at +145 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 41.5 points.

Game Info

How to Watch Saints vs. Falcons Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, January 7, 2024
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
  • Stadium: Caesars Superdome

Betting Preview

Saints

The Saints are totaling 333.3 yards per game on offense, which ranks them 16th in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, they rank 13th, giving up 323.3 yards per game. From an offensive standpoint, the Saints rank 15th in the NFL with 22.1 points per game. Meanwhile, they rank seventh in points allowed (323.3 points allowed per contest).

The Saints are totaling 234.0 passing yards per game on offense, which ranks them 12th in the NFL. On defense, they rank ninth, surrendering 200.8 passing yards per contest. The Saints are putting up 99.3 rushing yards per game on offense (21st in the NFL), and they rank 21st defensively with 122.5 rushing yards allowed per game.

Defensively, the Saints have been a top-five unit in terms of third-down efficiency, ranking fourth-best by giving up a 34.4% third-down conversion rate. They rank 16th on offense (39.1% third-down conversion rate). The Saints are allowing 5.2 yards per play on the defensive side of the ball (13th in the NFL), while gaining 5.1 per play (18th in the league) on offense this season. The Saints have forced 26 total turnovers (eighth in NFL) this season and have turned it over 18 times (ninth in NFL) for a turnover margin of +8, seventh-ranked in the NFL.

Falcons

The Falcons rank 18th with 330.9 total yards per game on offense, and they rank 11th with 316.1 total yards allowed per game on the defensive side of the ball. With 19.0 points per game on offense, the Falcons rank 26th in the NFL. Defensively, they rank ninth, allowing 20.3 points per contest.

With 200.8 passing yards per game on offense, the Falcons rank 22nd in the NFL. Defensively, they rank eighth, giving up 200.2 passing yards per contest. The Falcons rank eighth in the NFL with 130.1 rushing yards per game on offense, and they rank 19th with 115.9 rushing yards given up per game on the defensive side of the ball.

The Falcons’ third-down defense has been leading the charge for the team, as they rank third-best in the NFL with a 33.9% third-down conversion rate allowed. In terms of offense, they are compiling a 40.2% third-down rate, which ranks 13th. The Falcons rank 18th in the NFL with 5.1 yards per play on offense, and they rank sixth with 4.9 yards ceded per play on the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons have fared poorly in terms of turnovers, as their turnover margin of -9 is fifth-worst in the NFL.

Saints vs. Falcons Injury Report

Saints

Player Pos. Injury Status
Alvin Kamara RB Ankle Out
Khalen Saunders DT Concussion Probable
Juantavius Gray DB Illness Probable
Payton Turner DE Toe Probable
Landon Young OT Knee Out
Nephi Sewell LB Knee Out
Juwan Johnson TE Chest Probable
Keith Kirkwood WR Gameday inactive Out
Monty Rice LB Gameday inactive Out
Lonnie Johnson Jr. CB Knee Out
Kendre Miller RB Ankle Probable
Jake Haener QB Gameday inactive Out
A.T. Perry WR Illness Probable
Kyle Phillips DE Gameday inactive Out

Falcons

Player Pos. Injury Status
Taylor Heinicke QB Ankle Out
Tommy Togiai DT Gameday inactive Out
Troy Andersen ILB Arm Out
Natrone Brooks CB Gameday inactive Out

Saints vs. Falcons Betting Analysis

Saints Betting Insights

The Saints have gone 5-10-1 against the spread this season. The Saints have an ATS record of 2-2 when playing as at least 3.5-point favorites.

This season, five Saints games have gone over the point total.

Falcons Betting Insights

The Falcons have covered the spread in a matchup five times this season (5-11-0). The Falcons have not covered the spread (0-1) when playing as at least 3.5-point underdogs.

This season, six Falcons games have gone over the point total. The Falcons have won two of the five games they’ve played as underdogs this season.

The Falcons have played as an underdog of +145 or more once this season and lost that game.

Saints vs. Falcons Against The Spread & Betting Records

Saints

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 41.8 41.8 41.8
Implied Team Total AVG 22.9 23.6 22.3
ATS Record 5-10-1 2-5-0 3-5-1
Over/Under Record 5-11-0 2-5-0 3-6-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 6-6 4-2 2-4
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-2 0-1 2-1

Falcons

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 40.1 41.4 38.9
Implied Team Total AVG 21.5 22.1 20.9
ATS Record 5-11-0 3-5-0 2-6-0
Over/Under Record 6-10-0 3-5-0 3-5-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 5-6 4-3 1-3
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-3 1-0 1-3

Players to Watch

Saints

  • Derek Carr has 3,614 passing yards in 16 games this year, averaging 225.9 per game with a 67.9% completion percentage and 21 touchdowns against eight interceptions.
  • Alvin Kamara averages 3.9 yards per carry (29th in the NFL) and 53.4 yards per game, and has 694 total rushing yards. He has recorded five rushing TDs this season.
  • Kamara’s 87 targets as part of the passing attack have resulted in 75 catches (5.8 per game) for 466 yards (35.8 per game) and one touchdown.
  • In the passing attack, Chris Olave, has contributed with 1,067 receiving yards and four touchdowns after grabbing 84 balls on 135 targets. Per game, he’s averaging 71.1 yards and 5.6 receptions over 15 games.
  • He has added 350 rushing yards (23.3 per game) and four touchdowns on the ground.
  • Over on the defensive side, Demario Davis has 111 tackles, 10.0 TFL, and 6.5 sacks in 2023.
  • Carl Granderson has 75 tackles, 13.0 TFL, and 8.5 sacks this season.
  • Paulson Adebo has put up 69 tackles and four interceptions this year.
  • Alontae Taylor has 1.0 sack to go with 6.0 TFL, 75 tackles, and one interception this year.

Falcons

  • Bijan Robinson averages 59.3 rushing yards per game this year (948 total yards to rank 10th in the NFL), while scoring four rushing touchdowns.
  • On top of his impact on the ground, Robinson has caught 51 passes (on 78 targets) for 384 yards (fourth on the Falcons), with three receiving touchdowns. He’s averaging 24.0 yards per game.
  • Desmond Ridder has 2,545 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. His completion percentage is 63.4% and he averages 181.8 yards per game and 7.1 per attempt.
  • Ridder also has five rushing touchdowns and 193 rushing yards (third on the Falcons).
  • Tyler Allgeier is averaging 41.2 rushing yards per game this season (659 total yards), while scoring four rushing touchdowns.
  • In addition to his rushing stats, Allgeier has grabbed 15 passes (on 20 targets) for 183 yards (eighth on the Falcons), with one receiving touchdown. He averages 11.4 yards per game.
  • Drake London has 864 receiving yards and two touchdowns from 65 receptions after receiving 101 targets.
  • Jessie Bates III’s 2023 effort includes 128 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and six interceptions in 16 games. He leads the Falcons in tackles.
  • Kaden Elliss has 119 tackles, 11.0 TFL, and 4.0 sacks. He is second on the Falcons in tackles.
  • Nathan Landman has 2.0 sacks in addition to his 6.0 TFL, 100 tackles, and one interception.
  • Richie Grant has totaled 2.0 sacks as well as 2.0 TFL, 92 tackles, and one interception.

Saints vs. Falcons Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this game is the Saints, and we predict that Saints will cover the spread (Saints -3.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 41.5 points.

How to Bet on Saints vs. Falcons

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You can check our live NFL lines for the latest NFL odds, including money lines, spreads, and over/under totals.

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WRITTEN BY

Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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