Oklahoma City vs. Dallas Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Tuesday, May 7, 2024

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In Game 1 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs, the Oklahoma City Thunder will face the Dallas Mavericks.

The Thunder enter their game as a 3.5-point favorite against the Mavericks. The matchup features a point total of 218.

Thunder vs. Mavericks Odds

Point Spread for Thunder vs. Mavericks

The spread for this matchup is set at 3.5 points, with bookmakers listing the Thunder as the favorite.

Oklahoma City vs. Dallas Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Oklahoma City has -162 odds to win the game, while Dallas is listed at +136 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 218 points.

Game Time and How to Watch

  • When: Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 9:30 PM ET
  • Where: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
  • TV: TNT

Thunder vs. Mavericks Betting Trends

The Thunder have covered the spread in a game 46 times this season (46-35-1). Oklahoma City has entered the game as favorites 61 times this season and won 47, or 77%, of those games. Thunder games have gone over the total 43 times this season.

The Mavericks have registered a 48-34-0 record against the spread this year. Dallas has come away with 12 wins in the 31 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season. Mavericks games have gone over the total 36 times this season.

Thunder vs. Mavericks Key Players to Watch

Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s numbers for the season are 30.1 points, 6.2 assists and 5.5 boards per game. Chet Holmgren’s numbers on the season are 16.5 points, 2.4 assists and 7.9 boards per contest. Jalen Williams posts 19.1 points, 4.0 boards and 4.5 assists per game, shooting 54.0% from the floor and 42.7% from downtown (ninth in NBA), with 1.5 made 3-pointers per game. Josh Giddey puts up 12.3 points, 6.4 boards and 4.8 assists per contest, shooting 47.5% from the floor and 33.7% from beyond the arc, with 1.0 made 3-pointers per game.

Mavericks

Luka Doncic gets the Mavericks 33.9 points, 9.2 boards and 9.8 assists per game. He also averages 1.4 steals (seventh in league) and 0.5 blocks. Kyrie Irving’s averages on the season are 25.6 points, 5.0 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game, making 49.7% of his shots from the field and 41.1% from 3-point range, with 3.0 treys per game (ninth in NBA). Daniel Gafford’s numbers for the season are 11.0 points, 7.6 rebounds and 1.6 assists per contest, making 72.5% of his shots from the floor (first in NBA). P.J. Washington’s averages for the season are 12.9 points, 5.6 rebounds and 1.9 assists, making 43.6% of his shots from the field and 32.0% from beyond the arc, with 1.8 triples per contest.

What you need to know about the Thunder

The Thunder are ceding 112.7 points per game this year (11th-ranked in NBA), but they’ve really thrived on offense, posting 120.1 points per contest (third-best). The Thunder are averaging just 42.0 boards per game (fourth-worst in NBA), and they are allowing 44.7 rebounds per contest (23rd-ranked). So far this season, the Thunder rank 11th in the league in assists, putting up 27.1 per game.

Oklahoma City averages 123.1 points per game when playing at home, compared to 117.0 points per game on the road, a difference of 6.1 points per contest. With a 38.9% three-point percentage this season, Oklahoma City ranks best in the NBA. It ranks eighth in the league by sinking 13.3 treys per contest. Oklahoma City ranks 22nd in the NBA with 13.4 threes allowed per game this season. Meanwhile, it ranks 12th with a 36.1% shooting percentage allowed from three-point land.

The Thunder are 7-3 against the spread and 9-1 overall over their last 10 contests. Oklahoma City has gone over the total in four of its last 10 contests. The Thunder have been putting up 115.3 points per game in their last 10 times on the court, an average that’s a little lower than the 120.1 they’ve scored over the course of the 2023-24 season. The last 10 games have seen Oklahoma City allow 13.8 fewer points per game (98.9) than its season-long average (112.7).

What you need to know about the Mavericks

In 2023-24, the Mavericks are seventh in the league on offense (117.9 points scored per game) and 20th on defense (115.6 points conceded). With 42.9 rebounds per game and 45.1 rebounds conceded, Dallas is 21st and 25th in the NBA, respectively. With 25.7 assists per game, the Mavericks are 19th in the league.

The Mavericks score 118.7 points per game at home, and 117.0 on the road. Beyond the arc, the Mavericks are third-best in the league in 3-pointers made per game (14.6). They are 13th in 3-point percentage at 36.9%. Dallas gives up 13.1 3-pointers per game and concedes 36.8% from beyond the arc, ranking 18th and 18th, respectively, in the NBA.

The Mavericks have a 6-4 record against the spread while finishing 6-4 overall in their past 10 games. In its past 10 contests, Dallas has gone over the total four times. Dallas is posting 105.8 points per contest in its past 10 games, which is 12.1 fewer points than its average for the season (117.9). The Mavericks are ceding 104.0 points per contest over their past 10 games, which is 11.6 fewer points than they are allowing for the season (115.6).

Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction & Pick

Our pick to win this contest is Thunder, and we expect that Thunder will cover the spread (Thunder -3.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 218 points.

How to bet Thunder vs. Mavericks

You can bet on Oklahoma City vs. Dallas at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Oklahoma City vs. Dallas picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

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WRITTEN BY

Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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