Buccaneers vs Saints Prediction: Week 17 Picks, Live Odds & Start Time – December 31, 2023

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On Sunday, December 31, 2023, the New Orleans Saints (7-8) visit a red-hot Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7) team at Raymond James Stadium. The Buccaneers are looking to keep on rolling after winning four games in a row.

Buccaneers vs. Saints Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3 points, with sportsbooks listing the Buccaneers as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Buccaneers have -148 odds to pick up the win, while the Saints are listed at +124 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 42.5 points.

Game Info

How to Watch Buccaneers vs. Saints Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, December 31, 2023
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: FOX
  • Location: Tampa, Florida
  • Stadium: Raymond James Stadium

Betting Preview

Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are compiling 316.3 yards per game on offense (23rd in NFL), and they rank 24th defensively with 356.2 yards allowed per game. The Buccaneers are putting up 21.7 points per game on offense (17th in NFL), and they rank 11th on defense with 20.1 points allowed per game.

Despite having a bottom-five pass defense that ranks worst in the NFL (264.1 passing yards allowed per game), the Buccaneers have played better on the other side of the ball, ranking 17th in the NFL by averaging 227.0 passing yards per game. While the Buccaneers’ run defense ranks seventh with 92.1 rushing yards allowed per game, they’ve been less successful on offense, ranking third-worst (89.3 rushing yards per game).

The Buccaneers are putting up a 42.5% third-down conversion rate on offense (eighth in the NFL), and they rank 26th on defense with a 42.1% third-down conversion rate allowed. The Buccaneers are averaging 5.1 yards per play on offense, which ranks them 16th in the NFL. Defensively, they rank 26th, surrendering 5.6 yards per play. The Buccaneers have forced 24 total turnovers (seventh in NFL) this season and have turned it over 14 times (first in NFL) for a turnover margin of +10, the best in the league.

Saints

The Saints rank 14th with 334.8 total yards per game on offense, and they rank 14th with 321.6 total yards given up per contest on defense. The Saints rank 13th in the NFL with 22.1 points per game on offense, and they rank ninth with 19.8 points given up per contest on defense.

From an offensive standpoint, the Saints are generating 236.1 passing yards per contest (12th-ranked). They rank seventh in the NFL on the other side of the ball (194.7 passing yards allowed per game). The Saints are generating 98.7 rushing yards per game on offense this season (21st-ranked). Meanwhile, they are allowing 126.9 rushing yards per game (25th-ranked) on defense.

The Saints rank 16th in the NFL with a 38.6% third-down conversion percentage, but they’ve been lifted up by their defense, which ranks fourth-best by surrendering a 34.8% third-down rate. The Saints rank 16th in the NFL with 5.1 yards per play on offense, and they rank 11th with 5.1 yards surrendered per play on the defensive side of the ball. The Saints own a +4 turnover margin this season, which ranks ninth in the NFL.

Buccaneers vs. Saints Injury Report

Buccaneers

Player Pos. Injury Status
John Wolford QB Gameday inactive Out
Shaquil Barrett OLB Groin Out
JJ Russell ILB Gameday inactive Out
Ko Kieft TE Shoulder Out
Carlton Davis CB Concussion Out

Saints

Player Pos. Injury Status
Alvin Kamara RB Illness Probable
Ryan Ramczyk OT Knee Out
Monty Rice LB Gameday inactive Out
Cameron Dantzler CB Gameday inactive Out
Lonnie Johnson Jr. CB Knee Out
Kendre Miller RB Ankle Out
Isaiah Foskey DE Quad Out
Lou Hedley P Illness Probable
Jake Haener QB Gameday inactive Out

Buccaneers vs. Saints Betting Analysis

Buccaneers Betting Insights

The Buccaneers have compiled a 10-5-0 record against the spread this season. The Buccaneers are winless against the spread when they are 3-point favorites or more (0-2).

Buccaneers games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under six times this season.

Saints Betting Insights

The Saints have covered the spread four times this season (4-10-1). The Saints have yet to cover the spread when playing as at least 3-point underdogs (0-2).

Games involving Saints have hit the over five times this year. The Saints have entered the game as underdogs three times this season and won once.

The Saints have not won as an underdog of +124 or more on the moneyline this season in two such games.

Buccaneers vs. Saints Against The Spread & Betting Records

Buccaneers

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 41.5 40.8 42.2
Implied Team Total AVG 23.2 22.1 24.1
ATS Record 10-5-0 3-4-0 7-1-0
Over/Under Record 6-9-0 2-5-0 4-4-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 3-1 3-1 0-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 5-6 1-2 4-4

Saints

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 41.8 41.8 41.8
Implied Team Total AVG 22.9 23.6 22.3
ATS Record 4-10-1 2-5-0 2-5-1
Over/Under Record 5-10-0 2-5-0 3-5-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 6-6 4-2 2-4
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-2 0-1 1-1

Players to Watch

Buccaneers

  • Baker Mayfield has 3,598 passing yards, 26 touchdowns (sixth in the NFL) and eight interceptions this year. He has completed 64.3% of his passes, averaging 239.9 yards per game and 7.2 per attempt.
  • In addition to his passing statistics, Mayfield also has 157 rushing yards (second on the Buccaneers), with one rushing touchdown.
  • Mike Evans has 73 receptions for 1,163 yards (ninth in the NFL) and 13 TDs. Through 15 games, he is averaging 4.9 catches and 77.5 yards per game.
  • In 15 games, Rachaad White has amassed 873 yards on the ground, averaging 58.2 yards per game and scoring six touchdowns.
  • White has totaled 56 catches on 62 targets for 507 yards, with three receiving TDs.
  • Chris Godwin has 74 receptions for 892 yards and one touchdown. He’s been targeted 119 times in the passing game, and averages 4.9 receptions and 59.5 yards through 15 games played.
  • On the defensive side, Antoine Winfield Jr. has three interceptions to go with 110 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 5.0 sacks, and 12 passes defended in 2023.
  • Lavonte David has 113 tackles, 17.0 TFL, and 4.5 sacks this season. He leads the Buccaneers in tackles.
  • Devin White has put up 73 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 2.5 sacks, and two interceptions this year.
  • This season, Yaya Diaby has 31 tackles, 9.0 TFL, and 6.5 sacks.

Saints

  • Derek Carr is averaging 7.0 passing yards per attempt (16th in the NFL) and 227.8 yards per game this year, completing 67.4% of his passes on the way to 3,417 total yards, 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions through 15 games.
  • Alvin Kamara averages 54.1 rushing yards per game through 12 games (649 total yards), while scoring five rushing touchdowns.
  • Kamara has also collected 462 receiving yards (38.5 per game) on 73 catches (6.1 per game). He’s been targeted 85 times and has caught one touchdown pass.
  • Chris Olave has put up 1,041 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 81 receptions, while being targeted 129 times on the season.
  • Rashid Shaheed has 640 receiving yards and four touchdowns from 41 receptions after getting 68 targets.
  • Demario Davis has 107 tackles, 9.0 TFL, 6.5 sacks, and four passes defended in 2023.
  • Carl Granderson’s stats include 74 tackles, 13.0 TFL, 8.5 sacks, and one pass defended.
  • Paulson Adebo has 65 tackles and four interceptions.
  • Alontae Taylor has totaled 1.0 sack as well as 6.0 TFL and 71 tackles.

Buccaneers vs. Saints Predictions and Pick

Our pick to win this matchup is the Buccaneers, and we expect that Buccaneers will cover the spread (Buccaneers -3). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 42.5 points.

How to Bet on Buccaneers vs. Saints

You can bet this Buccaneers vs. Saints pick at every legal online sportsbook

You can check our live NFL lines for the latest NFL odds, including money lines, spreads, and over/under totals.

Tip: If you want to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Buccaneers vs. Saints picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

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WRITTEN BY

Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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