Patriots vs Broncos Prediction: Odds, Picks & Betting Preview Week 16 – December 24, 2023

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On Sunday, December 24, 2023, the New England Patriots (3-11) go on the road to match up against the Denver Broncos (7-7) at Empower Field at Mile High.

Broncos vs. Patriots Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 7.5 points, with oddsmakers listing the Broncos as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Broncos have -345 odds to pick up the win, while the Patriots are listed at +275 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 37.5 points.

Game Info

How to Watch Broncos vs. Patriots Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, December 24, 2023
  • Game Time: 8:15 PM ET
  • TV Channel: NFLN
  • Location: Denver, Colorado
  • Stadium: Empower Field at Mile High

Betting Preview


With 382.4 yards allowed per game on defense, which ranks third-worst in the NFL, the Broncos have been forced to lean on their 25th-ranked offense (299.8 yards per contest) to keep them in games. Despite having a bottom-five scoring defense that ranks third-worst in the NFL (25.1 points allowed per game), the Broncos have put up better results offensively, ranking 15th in the NFL by totaling 21.7 points per game.

The Broncos are totaling 187.1 passing yards per game offensively this season (25th in NFL), and they are allowing 235.5 passing yards per game (23rd) on defense. The Broncos sport the 14th-ranked rushing offense this year (112.7 rushing yards per game), and they’ve been less effective on the other side of the ball, ranking worst with 146.9 rushing yards allowed per game.

The Broncos rank 21st in third-down conversion rate this year (37.1%), but they’ve been shining on the other side of the ball, ranking second-best in the NFL with a 33.3% third-down percentage allowed. Despite having a bottom-five defense in terms of yards per play that ranks third-worst in the NFL (6 yards per play allowed), the Broncos have played better on offense, ranking 17th in the NFL by averaging 5.1 yards per play. With 24 forced turnovers (third in NFL) against 19 turnovers committed (16th in NFL), the Broncos (+5) own the eighth-ranked turnover margin in the NFL.


The Patriots rank fifth-worst in total yards per game (285.3), but they’ve been more productive on the other side of the ball, ranking eighth in the NFL with 308.3 total yards surrendered per contest. The Patriots’ offense has been bottom-five this season, posting 13.3 points per game, which ranks worst in the NFL. On defense, they rank 16th with 21.4 points allowed per contest.

The Patriots are compiling 186.9 passing yards per game on offense this season (26th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are allowing 223.4 passing yards per game (16th-ranked) on defense. The Patriots’ run defense has been leading the way for the team, as they rank second-best in the NFL with 84.9 rushing yards conceded per game. In terms of offense, they are posting 98.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks 24th.

The Patriots’ offense has been sputtering on third down, ranking fourth-worst in the NFL with a 31.9% third-down conversion percentage. They have been better on the defensive side of the ball, allowing a 37.1% third-down rate (12th-ranked). The Patriots rank fifth-worst in yards per play on offense (4.7), but at least they’ve been playing well on the other side of the ball, ranking fourth-best in yards allowed per play (4.8). The Patriots have forced 14 turnovers this season and have turned the ball over 22 times, leading to a -8 turnover margin that is fourth-worst in the NFL.

Broncos vs. Patriots Injury Report


Player Pos. Injury Status
Nik Bonitto OLB Knee Out
Alex Forsyth C Gameday inactive Out
Alex Palczewski OT Hand Questionable
Ben DiNucci QB Gameday inactive Out
Thomas Incoom OLB Gameday inactive Out
Nate Adkins TE Gameday inactive Out


Player Pos. Injury Status
Rhamondre Stevenson RB Ankle Out
Ja’Whaun Bentley LB Knee Probable
Jahlani Tavai LB Ankle Probable
Anfernee Jennings LB Illness Probable
Conor McDermott OT Concussion Out
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Ankle Out
Hunter Henry TE Knee Out
Jonathan Jones DB Knee Probable
Jabrill Peppers DB Hamstring Out
J.C. Jackson DB Personal Out
Matthew Slater WR Hamstring Out
Nathan Rourke QB Gameday inactive Out

Broncos vs. Patriots Betting Analysis

Broncos Betting Insights

The Broncos have put together a 4-8-2 record against the spread this season.

Broncos games have gone over the total six times this season.

Patriots Betting Insights

The Patriots have put together a 3-10-1 record against the spread this year. The Patriots have an ATS record of 1-1-1 when playing as at least 7.5-point underdogs.

This season, Patriots games have hit the over five times. The Patriots have won two of the 10 games they’ve played as underdogs this season.

The Patriots have entered three games this season as the underdog by +275 or more and are 1-2 in those contests.

Broncos vs. Patriots Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 44.7 42 47.4
Implied Team Total AVG 24.7 22.7 26.7
ATS Record 4-8-2 2-4-1 2-4-1
Over/Under Record 6-8-0 3-4-0 3-4-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 4-3 3-3 1-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 3-4 1-0 2-4


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 40.3 41.4 38.8
Implied Team Total AVG 22.4 22.6 22
ATS Record 3-10-1 1-6-1 2-4-0
Over/Under Record 5-9-0 3-5-0 2-4-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 1-3 0-2 1-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-8 1-5 1-3

Players to Watch


  • Russell Wilson has 2,832 passing yards in 14 games this year, averaging 202.3 per game with a 66.3% completion percentage and 24 touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) against eight interceptions.
  • In addition to his passing stats, Wilson also has 321 rushing yards (third on the Broncos), with three rushing touchdowns.
  • Courtland Sutton has 58 receptions for 770 yards and 10 TDs. In 14 games, he is averaging 4.1 catches and 55 yards per game.
  • Javonte Williams has 677 rushing yards with one touchdown (52.1 yards per game through 13 games).
  • Williams has been on the receiving end of 43 targets in the passing game and has 34 catches (2.6 per game) for 173 yards (13.3 per game) and two TDs.
  • Jerry Jeudy averages 3.5 receptions and 44.7 yards per game, and has 581 total receiving yards and 45 catches. He’s gotten 70 total targets, and has caught one touchdown pass.
  • On defense for the Broncos, Alex Singleton has powered the unit with 139 tackles, five TFL, and two sacks in 2023.
  • Jonathon Cooper has 6.5 sacks (second on the Broncos) in addition to his six TFL, 65 tackles, and one interception.
  • Josey Jewell has put up 87 tackles, one TFL, and two sacks this year.
  • Zach Allen has five sacks (third on the Broncos) in addition to his eight TFL and 49 tackles on the season.


  • Mac Jones is averaging 6.1 passing yards per attempt (28th in the NFL) and 192.7 yards per game this year, completing 64.9% of his passes on the way to 2,120 total yards, 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions through 11 games.
  • Ezekiel Elliott averages 37.3 rushing yards per game over 14 games (522 total yards), while scoring two rushing touchdowns.
  • Elliott has also picked up 247 receiving yards (17.6 per game) on 36 catches (2.6 per game). He’s been targeted 45 times and has caught one touchdown pass.
  • So far this season, Demario Douglas has caught 39 passes for 443 receiving yards without a touchdown in the passing game. He has been targeted 60 total times and is averaging 3.5 receptions per game through 11 games played.
  • In seven games, Bailey Zappe has 719 passing yards, with four touchdowns against four interceptions and completing 60.2% of his passes.
  • Kyle Dugger has intercepted two passes and also has 86 tackles, five TFL, 1.5 sacks, and five passes defended in 2023.
  • Ja’Whaun Bentley has 88 tackles, five TFL, four sacks, and three passes defended.
  • Jahlani Tavai has one sack in addition to his four TFL, 87 tackles, and two interceptions.
  • Myles Bryant has put up one sack to go with six TFL, 67 tackles, and one interception through 14 games.

Broncos vs. Patriots Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this contest is the Broncos, and we project that Broncos will cover the spread (Broncos -7.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 37.5 points.

How to Bet on Broncos vs. Patriots

You can bet this Broncos vs. Patriots pick at every legal online sportsbook

You can check our live NFL lines for the latest NFL odds, including money lines, spreads, and over/under totals.

Tip: If you want to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Broncos vs. Patriots picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

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Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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