Packers vs. Bears Prediction: Week 18 Odds, Picks & Moneyline – January 7, 2024

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On Sunday, January 7, 2024, the Chicago Bears (7-9) hit the road for an NFC North battle against the Green Bay Packers (8-8) at Lambeau Field.

Packers vs. Bears Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 2.5 points, with bookmakers listing the Packers as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Packers have -155 odds to pick up the win, while the Bears are listed at +130 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 46 points.

Game Info

How to Watch Packers vs. Bears Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, January 7, 2024
  • Game Time: 4:25 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Green Bay, Wisconsin
  • Stadium: Lambeau Field

Betting Preview

Packers

The Packers are compiling 340.1 yards per game on offense (13th in NFL), and they rank 22nd defensively with 344.0 yards allowed per game. The Packers are compiling 22.9 points per game on offense (11th in NFL), and they rank 14th defensively with 21.3 points allowed per game.

The Packers are averaging 228.8 passing yards per game on offense, which ranks them 17th in the NFL. On defense, they rank 11th, giving up 212.4 passing yards per contest. Despite having a bottom-five run defense that ranks fifth-worst in the NFL (131.6 rushing yards allowed per game), the Packers have played better on offense, ranking 15th in the NFL by putting up 111.3 rushing yards per game.

The Packers sport the 24th-ranked defense this year in terms of third-down efficiency (41.8% third-down percentage allowed), and they’ve been better on offense, ranking fifth-best with a 46.0% third-down conversion rate. This season, the Packers are putting up 5.5 yards per play (ninth in the league), while giving up 5.4 per play on the defensive side of the ball (20th in the NFL). The Packers have the 15th-ranked turnover margin in the league at +1, forcing 18 turnovers (23rd in NFL) while turning it over 17 times (fifth in NFL).

Bears

In terms of total offense, the Bears rank 17th in the NFL (331.4 total yards per game) and 12th on the other side of the ball (317.4 total yards allowed per game). The Bears are compiling 21.9 points per contest on offense this season (16th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are giving up 22.6 points per contest (20th-ranked) on defense.

The Bears rank 26th in the NFL with 186.2 passing yards per contest on offense, and they rank 22nd with 233.4 passing yards ceded per game on the defensive side of the ball. The Bears have been top-five in rushing on both offense and defense this season, as they rank second-best in rushing yards per game (145.3) and best in rushing yards surrendered per game (84.0).

The Bears have been struggling on third down, ranking fourth-worst with a 42.9% third-down conversion rate allowed per game. They have been more effective on the other side of the ball, putting up a 41.9% third-down rate (10th-ranked). From an offensive angle, the Bears are accumulating 5.0 yards per play (22nd-ranked). They rank 13th in the NFL on the other side of the ball (5.2 yards allowed per play). The Bears have compiled 27 forced turnovers (third in NFL) and committed 25 turnovers (23rd in NFL) this season for a +2 turnover margin that ranks 12th in the NFL.

Packers vs. Bears Injury Report

Packers

Player Pos. Injury Status
A.J. Dillon RB Thumb Out
Christian Watson WR Hamstring Out
Preston Smith LB Ankle Probable
Elgton Jenkins OG Knee Probable
Samori Toure WR Knee Out
Isaiah McDuffie LB Concussion Out
Caleb Jones OT Gameday inactive Out
Dontayvion Wicks WR Chest Probable
Jayden Reed WR Chest Probable
Brenton Cox Jr. LB Gameday inactive Out
Grant DuBose WR Gameday inactive Out

Bears

Player Pos. Injury Status
D’Onta Foreman RB Gameday inactive Out
Khalil Herbert RB Back Probable
Cole Kmet TE Knee Probable
Darnell Mooney WR Concussion Out
Greg Stroman CB Gameday inactive Out
Patrick Scales LS Foot Probable
Lucas Patrick C Calf Out
Kyler Gordon DB Calf Probable
Jaylon Johnson CB Shoulder Out
Tyson Bagent QB Gameday inactive Out
Quindell Johnson SS Gameday inactive Out

Packers vs. Bears Betting Analysis

Packers Betting Insights

The Packers have gone 8-7-1 against the spread this season. The Packers have an ATS record of 1-3 when playing as at least 2.5-point favorites.

Games involving the Packers have hit the over 10 times this season.

Bears Betting Insights

The Bears have covered the spread eight times over 16 games with a set spread. In games they were an underdog in by 2.5 points or more so far this year, the Bears have gone 6-5-1 against the spread.

This season, nine Bears games have gone over the point total. The Bears have entered the game as underdogs 12 times this season and won four, or 33.3%, of those games.

The Bears have entered nine games this season as the underdog by +130 or more and are 3-6 in those contests.

Packers vs. Bears Against The Spread & Betting Records

Packers

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 41.8 42.1 41.6
Implied Team Total AVG 22.5 22.7 22.3
ATS Record 8-7-1 4-3-0 4-4-1
Over/Under Record 10-6-0 3-4-0 7-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 2-2 1-1 1-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 5-6 3-2 2-4

Bears

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 43.0 41.8 44.1
Implied Team Total AVG 24.1 22.5 25.6
ATS Record 8-6-2 4-2-2 4-4-0
Over/Under Record 9-7-0 5-3-0 4-4-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 3-1 3-1 0-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 4-8 2-2 2-6

Players to Watch

Packers

  • Jordan Love has 3,843 passing yards (10th in the NFL), 30 touchdowns (third in the NFL) and 11 interceptions this year. He has completed 63.1% of his passes, averaging 240.2 yards per game and 7.0 per attempt.
  • In addition to his passing statistics, Love has 248 rushing yards (third on the Packers), with four rushing touchdowns.
  • Jayden Reed has 60 catches for 681 yards and eight TDs. In 15 games, he is averaging 4.0 catches and 45.4 yards per game.
  • Through 16 games played, Romeo Doubs is averaging 42.1 yards and 3.7 receptions per game to total 674 receiving yards and 59 catches. He’s been targeted 95 times, and has eight receiving touchdowns (eighth in the NFL).
  • Aaron Jones has run for 545 yards, averaging 54.5 yards per game and scoring two touchdowns.
  • Jones has been targeted 38 times to the tune of 25 receptions, 203 yards and one TD.
  • On defense for the Packers, Quay Walker has racked up 109 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and one interception in 2023.
  • Rashan Gary has 9.0 sacks (first on the Packers) to go with 6.0 TFL and 42 tackles.
  • Preston Smith has put up 46 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 8.0 sacks, and four passes defended.
  • Keisean Nixon has 0.5 sacks to go with his 3.0 TFL, 75 tackles, and one interception on the season.

Bears

  • In 12 games played this year, Justin Fields has totaled 2,414 passing yards, while throwing 16 touchdowns against nine interceptions and completing 61.0% of his attempts.
  • He’s added 630 yards on the ground (first on the Bears), while scoring four rushing touchdowns. He’s averaging 52.5 yards per game and 5.4 per attempt.
  • D.J. Moore has put together a 2023 stat sheet that includes 92 catches for 1,300 yards (seventh in the NFL) and eight receiving touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) over 16 games played. He has been on the receiving end of 130 targets and is averaging 5.8 receptions per game.
  • So far this season, Cole Kmet has caught 70 passes for 678 receiving yards with six touchdowns through the air. He has been targeted 86 total times and is averaging 4.4 receptions per game over 16 games played.
  • Khalil Herbert has scored two touchdowns on the ground, while running for 583 total yards (4.9 per attempt and 53.0 per game).
  • Herbert has also caught 18 passes for 121 yards (sixth on the Bears), with one receiving touchdown. He’s been targeted 29 times and averages 11.0 yards per game.
  • In 2023, T.J. Edwards has 2.5 sacks to go with 8.0 TFL, 143 tackles, and three interceptions over 16 games.
  • Montez Sweat has 54 tackles, 13.0 TFL, 12.5 sacks, and four passes defended.
  • Tremaine Edmunds has intercepted four passes on top of 103 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and seven passes defended in the 2023 season. His interception total ranks seventh in the NFL.
  • Jaquan Brisker’s stats include one interception as well as 97 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and nine passes defended in 14 games

Packers vs. Bears Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this contest is the Packers, and we project that Packers will cover the spread (Packers -2.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 46 points.

How to Bet on Packers vs. Bears

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WRITTEN BY

Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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