Eagles vs Chiefs Prediction: Super Bowl Picks, Live Odds & Start Time

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The NFL Playoffs conclude with a Super Bowl matchup at State Farm Stadium between the Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) and the Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) on Sunday, February 12, 2023.

Eagles vs. Chiefs Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 1.5 points, with bookmakers listing the Eagles as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Eagles have -120 odds to pick up the win, while the Chiefs are listed at +100 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 51 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Eagles vs. Chiefs Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, February 12, 2023
  • Game Time: 6:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: FOX
  • Location: Glendale, Arizona
  • Stadium: State Farm Stadium

Betting Preview

Eagles

The Eagles have been finding success on both offense and defense, ranking third-best in total offense (389.1 yards per game) and second-best in total defense (301.4 yards allowed per game). The Eagles rank seventh in scoring defense this season (20.2 points allowed per game), but they’ve been playing really well on the other side of the ball, ranking third-best in the NFL with 28.1 points per game.

On defense, the Eagles have been a top-five unit in terms of passing yards, ranking best by surrendering only 179.6 passing yards per game. They rank ninth on offense (241.5 passing yards per game). The Eagles rank 17th in run defense this year (121.7 rushing yards allowed per game), but they’ve been playing really well on the other side of the ball, ranking fifth-best in the NFL with 147.6 rushing yards per game.

The Eagles own the 14th-ranked defense this season in terms of third-down efficiency (38.6% third-down percentage allowed), and they’ve been more effective on offense, ranking fourth-best with a 45.9% third-down conversion rate. The Eagles have been a handful for opposing teams in terms of yards per play, as they rank top-five in both offensive yards per play (fourth-best with 5.9) and yards per play allowed on defense (best at 4.8) this season. With 27 forced turnovers (fourth in NFL) against 19 turnovers committed (fifth in NFL), the Eagles’ +8 turnover margin is the third-best in the league.

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Chiefs

The Chiefs’ offense has been dominant, racking up 413.6 total yards per contest (best) this season. Defensively, they rank 11th by giving up 328.2 total yards per game. The Chiefs’ offense has been paving the way for the team, as they rank best in the NFL with 29.2 points per game. In terms of defense, they are allowing 21.7 points per game, which ranks 16th.

The Chiefs’ pass offense has been excelling, compiling 297.8 passing yards per game (best) this season. Defensively, they rank 18th by allowing 220.9 passing yards per game. In terms of rushing, the Chiefs rank 20th in the NFL on offense (115.9 rushing yards per game) and eighth defensively (107.2 rushing yards allowed per contest).

The Chiefs’ third-down defense ranks 13th in the NFL with a 38.3% third-down conversion percentage given up, but they’ve been lifted up by their offense, which ranks second-best by posting a 48.7% third-down rate. The Chiefs’ defense ranks seventh in the NFL with 5.1 yards surrendered per play, but they’ve been led by their offense, which ranks best by racking up 6.4 yards per play. The Chiefs have registered 20 forced turnovers (20th in NFL) and committed 23 turnovers (17th in NFL) this season for a -3 turnover margin that ranks 22nd in the NFL.

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Eagles vs. Chiefs Injury Report

Eagles

Player Pos. Injury Status
Britain Covey WR Hamstring Questionable
Josh Sills OG Commissioner’s exempt list Out

Chiefs

Player Pos. Injury Status
Mecole Hardman WR Pelvis Out

Eagles vs. Chiefs Betting Analysis

Eagles Betting Insights

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The Eagles’ record against the spread during the regular season was 8-9-0. They are 2-0-0 versus the spread in the postseason. As 1.5-point favorites or more, the Eagles are 10-8 against the spread (in the regular season and playoffs).

The Eagles had 10 of their 17 games go over the point total during the season. Meanwhile, they have exceeded the over in zero of two games in the postseason. The Eagles won 87.5% of the games in the regular season when they were the moneyline favorite (14-2). As moneyline favorites in the postseason, they have a record of 2-0.

When they have played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -120 or shorter in the regular season and playoffs, the Eagles have gone 16-2 (88.9%).

Chiefs Betting Insights

Against the spread, the Chiefs were 6-10-1 during the regular season and are 1-1-0 in the playoffs. The Chiefs have won once ATS (1-1) as 1.5-point underdogs or more including both the regular season and playoffs.

In 17 Chiefs games during the regular season, eight of them went over the total, and it’s been zero of two in the playoffs. The Chiefs split the two games they played as underdogs in the regular season, and are 0-0 in the playoffs.

The Chiefs are 1-1 in the regular season and playoffs when entering a game as underdogs by +100 or more.

Eagles vs. Chiefs Against The Spread & Betting Records

Eagles

Overall Home Away Playoffs
Point Total AVG 45.4 44.1 46.9 46.5
Implied Team Total AVG 26.6 26.0 27.3 26.0
ATS Record 8-9-0 6-3-0 2-6-0 2-0-0
Over/Under Record 10-7-0 6-3-0 4-4-0 0-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 14-2 7-2 7-0 2-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-0

Chiefs

Overall Home Away Playoffs
Point Total AVG 49.6 49.1 50.1 50.0
Implied Team Total AVG 28.6 29.3 28.1 28.0
ATS Record 6-10-1 2-5-1 4-5-0 1-1-0
Over/Under Record 8-9-0 2-6-0 6-3-0 0-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 13-2 7-0 6-2 2-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-1 0-1 1-0 0-0

Players to Watch

Eagles

  • Jalen Hurts has 3,701 passing yards (10th in the NFL), 22 touchdowns and six interceptions this year. He has completed 66.5% of his attempts, averaging 246.7 yards per game and 8.0 per attempt.
  • He has also rushed for 760 yards (second on the Eagles) and added 13 touchdowns on the ground, while averaging 50.7 rushing yards per game.
  • A.J. Brown has caught 88 passes on 146 targets for 1,496 total yards (fourth in the NFL) and 11 touchdowns. He is averaging 5.2 catches and 88.0 yards per game in 17 games.
  • Miles Sanders‘ output on the ground this season includes 1,269 yards (fifth in the NFL) and 11 TDs. He is averaging 74.6 yards per game and 4.9 per attempt (11th in the NFL).
  • DeVonta Smith has 95 receptions for 1,196 yards (ninth in the NFL) and seven touchdowns. He’s been targeted 136 times in the passing game, and averages 5.6 receptions and 70.4 yards in 17 games played.
  • On the defensive side, T.J. Edwards has 159 tackles, 10.0 TFL, and 2.0 sacks in 2022. His tackle total leads the Eagles and is sixth in the NFL.
  • Haason Reddick has 48 tackles, 10.0 TFL, and 16.0 sacks this season.
  • Josh Sweat has recorded one interception and added 47 tackles, 14.0 TFL, 11.0 sacks, and one pass defended.
  • Javon Hargrave has 60 tackles, 10.0 TFL, 11.0 sacks, and two passes defended.

Chiefs

  • Patrick Mahomes II has passed for 5,250 yards this year (to rank first in the NFL), with 41 touchdowns (first in the NFL) and 12 interceptions. He is completing 67.1% of his attempts while averaging 308.8 yards per game and 8.1 per attempt.
  • He’s added 358 yards on the ground (second on the Chiefs), with four rushing touchdowns. He’s averaging 21.1 yards per game and 5.9 per attempt.
  • Travis Kelce has put together a 2022 campaign that includes 110 catches (third in the NFL) for 1,338 yards (eighth in the NFL) and 12 receiving touchdowns (second in the NFL) over 17 games played. He has been on the receiving end of 152 targets and is averaging 6.5 receptions per game.
  • This season in 17 games, Jerick McKinnon has racked up 291 rushing yards (fifth on the Chiefs) and scored one rushing touchdown. He averages 17.1 yards per game and 4.0 per carry.
  • McKinnon has helped out in the passing game, amassing 512 receiving yards (30.1 per game) on 56 catches (3.3 per game), while being targeted 71 times. He has nine receiving touchdowns.
  • Isiah Pacheco has scored five touchdowns on the ground, while running for 830 total yards (4.9 per attempt and 48.8 per game).
  • Nick Bolton’s 2022 output includes 179 tackles, 8.0 TFL, 2.0 sacks, and two interceptions through 17 games. He leads the Chiefs and is second in the NFL in tackles.
  • L’Jarius Sneed has registered 3.5 sacks in addition to his 4.0 TFL, 107 tackles, and three interceptions through 17 games.
  • Chris Jones has 44 tackles, 16.0 TFL, 15.5 sacks, and four passes defended in the 2022 campaign.
  • Willie Gay Jr. has totaled 2.5 sacks as well as 9.0 TFL, 87 tackles, and one interception.

Eagles vs. Chiefs Predictions and Pick

Our pick to win this contest is the Eagles, and we project that Eagles will cover the spread (Eagles -1.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 51 points.

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How to Bet on Eagles vs. Chiefs

You can bet on Eagles vs. Chiefs at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Eagles vs. Chiefs picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Luis Escalante

Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014 and is currently the Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. Luis comes from an analytics background, leveraging his data skills with multiple years of experience in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting.

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