Bills vs Dolphins Prediction: Week 3 Picks, Live Odds & Start Time – September 2022

httpscdn.dataskrive.comapiasset9dVEEP7buffalo bills vs miami dolphins Betsperts Media & Technology

The Buffalo Bills (2-0) and the Miami Dolphins (2-0) — two AFC East foes — play on Sunday, September 25, 2022 at Hard Rock Stadium.

Bills vs. Dolphins Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 4.5 points, with oddsmakers listing the Bills as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Bills have -205 odds to pick up the win, while the Dolphins are listed at +175 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 53.5 points.

Caesars Promo Code
$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

Game Info

How to Watch Bills vs. Dolphins Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, September 25, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
  • Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium

Betting Preview


The Bills have been clicking on all fronts this season, as they rank third-best in total offense (413.5 yards per game) and second-best in total defense (215.0 yards allowed per game). The Bills have been a difficult matchup for opposing teams, as they rank top-five in both scoring offense (best with 36.0 points per game) and scoring defense (second-best with 8.5 points allowed per game) this season. The Bills have been a tough opponent for opposing teams in the passing game, as they rank top-five in both passing offense (third-best with 302.5 passing yards per game) and passing defense (second-best with 149.0 passing yards allowed per game) this year. The Bills rank 14th in rushing yards this season (111.0 rushing yards per game), but they’ve been shining on the defensive side of the ball, ranking best in the NFL with 66.0 rushing yards allowed per game. The Bills rank 20th in third-down defense this season (40.0% third-down conversion rate allowed), but they’ve been shining on the offensive side of the ball, ranking best in the NFL with a 60.9% third-down percentage. The Bills have been firing on all cylinders in terms of yards per play this season, as they rank second-best in offensive yards per play (6.7) and best in yards per play allowed on defense (3.6). The Bills have forced seven total turnovers (first in NFL) this season and have turned it over four times (22nd in NFL) for a turnover margin of +3, the third-best in the NFL.


The Dolphins’ offensive attack has been leading the way for the team, as they rank second-best in the NFL with 427.0 total yards per game. In terms of defense, they are surrendering 372.0 total yards per game, which ranks 21st. The Dolphins’ offense has been dominant, racking up 31.0 points per contest (fourth-best) this season. On defense, they rank 18th by surrendering 22.5 points per game. The Dolphins’ pass defense ranks 25th in the NFL with 255.5 passing yards allowed per game, but they’ve been bolstered by their offense, which ranks best by compiling 351.5 passing yards per contest. The Dolphins rank fifth-worst in rushing yards per game (75.5), but they’ve been more productive defensively, ranking 17th in the NFL with 116.5 rushing yards allowed per contest. The Dolphins’ third-down offense has been excelling, putting up a 52.0% third-down conversion rate (fifth-best) this season. Defensively, they rank 16th by allowing a 36.8% third-down rate. The Dolphins are worst in yards per play allowed on defense (6.9), but at least they’ve been excelling on offense, second-best in yards per play (6.7). With three forced turnovers (10th in NFL) and two turnovers committed (10th in NFL) this season, the Dolphins rank 11th in the NFL with a turnover margin of +1.

Bills vs. Dolphins Injury Report


Bills: OT Bobby Hart: Out (Suspension), DT Ed Oliver: Out (Ankle), DT Tim Settle: Questionable (Calf), WR Gabriel Davis: Questionable (Ankle), C Mitch Morse: Questionable (Elbow), FB Jordan Poyer: Questionable (Foot), TE Dawson Knox: Questionable (Foot), DT Jordan Phillips: Out (Hamstring), CB Dane Jackson: Out (Neck), FB Micah Hyde: Out (Neck)


Dolphins: TE Cethan Carter: Out (Head), TE Hunter Long: Out (Ankle), DT Raekwon Davis: Questionable (Undisclosed), OT Terron Armstead: Questionable (Toe), WR Cedrick Wilson: Questionable (Ribs), FB John Lovett: Out (Knee), CB Xavien Howard: Questionable (Groin)

Bills vs. Dolphins Betting Analysis

Bills Betting Insights

The Bills have covered the spread two times this season (2-0-0). In games they have played as 4.5-point favorites or more, the Bills have a perfect ATS record of 1-0. Bills games have gone over the total once this season. The Bills finished with a 9-5 record in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite last season (winning 64.3% of those games). The Bills had an 8-4 record last year (winning 66.7% of their games) when they played as a moneyline favorite of -205 or shorter.

Dolphins Betting Insights

The Dolphins have covered the spread two times in two games with a set spread. Dolphins games have gone over the total once this season. The Dolphins won the only game they’ve played as the underdog this season. The Dolphins have not entered a game this season with longer moneyline odds than +175.

Caesars Promo Code
$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

Bills vs. Dolphins Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 49.8 47.5 52.0
Implied Total AVG 28.0 29.0 27.0
ATS Record 2-0-0 1-0-0 1-0-0
Over/Under Record 1-1-0 1-0-0 0-1-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 2-0 1-0 1-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 44.8 46.0 43.5
Implied Total AVG 24.5 25.0 24.0
ATS Record 2-0-0 1-0-0 1-0-0
Over/Under Record 1-1-0 0-1-0 1-0-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 1-0 1-0 0-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-0 0-0 1-0

Players to Watch


  • Josh Allen has 614 passing yards (third in the NFL), seven touchdowns (first in the NFL) and two interceptions this year. He has completed 75.4% of his passes, averaging 307.0 yards per game and 8.9 per attempt.
  • In addition to his passing stats, Allen has 66 rushing yards (second on the Bills), with one rushing touchdown.
  • Stefon Diggs‘ 270 receiving yards this season (second in the NFL) have come from 23 targets and 20 receptions (third in the NFL). He’s averaging 135.0 receiving yards and 10.0 catches per game, with four receiving touchdowns (first in the NFL).
  • Gabriel Davis has one touchdown catch this season, and has four receptions for 88 yards on five targets, while averaging 4.0 catches and 88.0 yards per game.
  • Isaiah McKenzie averages 2.0 receptions and 28.0 yards per game, and has 56 total receiving yards and four catches. He’s gotten six total targets, and has caught one touchdown pass.
  • On the defensive side, Matt Milano has one interception (sixth in the NFL) to go with 10 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and two passes defended in 2022.
  • Tremaine Edmunds has 12 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and 1.0 sack so far this season. He’s second on the Bills in tackles.
  • Gregory Rousseau has recorded eight tackles, 2.0 TFL, and 2.0 sacks this year.
  • This season, Jordan Poyer has six tackles, 1.0 TFL, and two interceptions.


  • Tua Tagovailoa is averaging 8.9 passing yards per attempt (third in the NFL) and 369.5 yards per game this year, completing 71.1% of his passes on the way to 739 total yards (first in the NFL), seven touchdowns (first in the NFL) and two interceptions through two games.
  • Jaylen Waddle has put together a 2022 campaign that includes 15 catches (seventh in the NFL) for 240 yards (third in the NFL) and three receiving touchdowns (second in the NFL) through two games played. He has been on the receiving end of 24 targets and is averaging 7.5 receptions per game.
  • This season, Tyreek Hill has caught 19 passes (fourth in the NFL) for 284 receiving yards (first in the NFL) with two touchdowns in the passing game (seventh in the NFL). He has been targeted 25 total times and is averaging 9.5 receptions per game through two games played.
  • Raheem Mostert has 67 rushing yards (leading the Dolphins), without scoring a rushing touchdown, while averaging 33.5 yards per game and 4.2 per attempt (28th in the NFL).
  • Mostert has added four catches (2.0 per game) for 44 yards (22.0 per game), without a receiving touchdown. He has been on the receiving end of four targets.
  • Brandon Jones’ 2022 showing includes 15 tackles and 1.0 sack in two games. He leads the Dolphins in tackles.
  • Christian Wilkins has 2.0 TFL and 13 tackles.
  • Melvin Ingram has four tackles and 1.0 TFL in the 2022 campaign.
  • Jevon Holland has intercepted one pass and also has five tackles and one pass defended. He’s sixth in the league in interceptions.

Bills vs. Dolphins Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this matchup is the Dolphins, and we predict that Dolphins will cover the spread (Bills -4.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 53.5 points.

Caesars Promo Code
$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

How to Bet on Bills vs. Dolphins

You can bet on Bills vs. Dolphins at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Bills vs. Dolphins picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Luis Escalante

Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014 and is currently the Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. Luis comes from an analytics background, leveraging his data skills with multiple years of experience in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting.

Deals of the Day

See All