Cowboys vs Commanders Prediction: Week 18 Picks, Live Odds & Start Time – January 7, 2024

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As they aim to halt a seven-game losing streak, the Washington Commanders (4-12) host the Dallas Cowboys (11-5) at FedExField on Sunday, January 7, 2024.

Cowboys vs. Commanders Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 13 points, with bookmakers listing the Cowboys as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Cowboys have -850 odds to pick up the win, while the Commanders are listed at +575 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the total for the game is set at 47 points.

Game Info

How to Watch Cowboys vs. Commanders Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, January 7, 2024
  • Game Time: 4:25 PM ET
  • TV Channel: FOX
  • Location: Landover, Maryland
  • Stadium: FedExField

Betting Preview

Cowboys

From an offensive standpoint, the Cowboys rank sixth in the NFL with 367.3 yards per game. Meanwhile, they rank eighth in total defense (307.2 yards allowed per contest). The Cowboys have been a difficult matchup for opposing teams, as they rank top-five in both scoring offense (second-best with 29.4 points per game) and scoring defense (fifth-best with 19.1 points allowed per game) this year.

The Cowboys have been making things happen on both sides of the ball in the passing game this year, as they rank fourth-best in passing offense (255.5 passing yards per game) and fifth-best in passing defense (190.9 passing yards allowed per game). The Cowboys are totaling 111.8 rushing yards per game on offense (14th in the NFL), and they rank 20th on defense with 116.3 rushing yards allowed per game.

The Cowboys have the 16th-ranked defense this year in terms of third-down efficiency (38.3% third-down conversion rate allowed), and they’ve been better offensively, ranking third-best with a 47.7% third-down percentage. The Cowboys are averaging 5.6 yards per play on offense, which ranks them seventh in the NFL. Defensively, they rank 10th, allowing 5.1 yards per play. The Cowboys have the seventh-ranked turnover margin in the league at +8, forcing 23 turnovers (17th in NFL) while turning it over 15 times (second in NFL).

Commanders

The Commanders rank 21st in total yards per game (321), but they’ve been worse on the defensive side of the ball, ranking worst in the NFL with 385.8 total yards surrendered per contest. The Commanders’ defense has been a bottom-five unit in scoring defense this season, surrendering 30 points per game, which ranks worst in the NFL. On offense, they rank 23rd with 19.9 points per contest.

The Commanders rank 18th in passing yards per game (224.6), but they’ve been less productive on the defensive side of the ball, ranking second-worst in the NFL with 259.3 passing yards allowed per contest. From an offensive angle, the Commanders are accumulating 96.4 rushing yards per contest (24th-ranked). They rank 26th in the NFL on the other side of the ball (126.5 rushing yards given up per game).

The Commanders rank 23rd in the NFL with a 36.4% third-down conversion percentage on offense, and 23rd with a 40.7% third-down percentage allowed on defense. The Commanders’ defense has been struggling in terms of yards allowed per play, ranking second-worst at 5.9. They have been better on offense, compiling 5.1 yards per play (18th-ranked). Regarding turnover margin, the Commanders are the worst team in the NFL this season. Their margin sits at -12, as they’ve forced 17 turnovers and committed 29.

Cowboys vs. Commanders Injury Report

Cowboys

Player Pos. Injury Status
Trey Lance QB Gameday inactive Out
Dorance Armstrong Jr. DE Ankle Probable
Chauncey Golston DE Illness Probable
Tyler Biadasz C Illness Probable
Zack Martin OG Illness Out
Johnathan Hankins DT Ankle Probable
Noah Igbinoghene CB Gameday inactive Out
Eric Scott Jr. CB Gameday inactive Out
Viliami Fehoko DE Gameday inactive Out
Deuce Vaughn RB Ankle Out

Commanders

Player Pos. Injury Status
Jacoby Brissett QB Gameday inactive Out
Christian Holmes CB Concussion Out
Jonathan Allen DT Knee Out
Casey Toohill DE Shoulder Out
Tariq Castro-Fields CB Shoulder Out
Andrew Wylie OG Elbow Out
Cole Turner TE Gameday inactive Out
Kendall Fuller CB Knee Out
Andre Jones Jr. DE Gameday inactive Out

Cowboys vs. Commanders Betting Analysis

Cowboys Betting Insights

The Cowboys have put together a 9-7-0 record against the spread this season. The Cowboys are a perfect 2-0 ATS when playing as at least 13-point favorites.

Cowboys games have gone over the total eight times this season.

The Cowboys played as a moneyline favorite of -850 or shorter in just two games last season, and they won both.

Commanders Betting Insights

The Commanders have compiled a 6-9-1 record against the spread this year. The Commanders have not covered the spread when playing as at least 13-point underdogs (0-2).

Games involving Commanders have hit the over nine times this year. The Commanders have been underdogs in 12 games this season and won three (25%) of those contests.

The Commanders have played as an underdog of +575 or more once this season and lost that game.

Cowboys vs. Commanders Against The Spread & Betting Records

Cowboys

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 46 45.8 46.3
Implied Team Total AVG 26.6 27.5 25.6
ATS Record 9-7-0 6-2-0 3-5-0
Over/Under Record 8-7-1 5-3-0 3-4-1
Moneyline Favorite Record 11-1 8-0 3-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-4 0-0 0-4

Commanders

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 42.8 43.9 41.9
Implied Team Total AVG 24.8 26 23.9
ATS Record 6-9-1 0-6-1 6-3-0
Over/Under Record 9-7-0 4-3-0 5-4-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 1-3 1-2 0-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 3-9 0-4 3-5

Players to Watch

Cowboys

  • Dak Prescott ranks fourth in the NFL with 4,237 passing yards in 16 games this year, averaging 264.8 per game with a 68.4% completion percentage and 32 touchdowns (first in the NFL) against eight interceptions.
  • In addition to his passing stats, Prescott has 242 rushing yards (third on the Cowboys), with two rushing touchdowns.
  • CeeDee Lamb has 122 catches (first in the NFL) for 1,651 yards (second in the NFL) and 10 TDs. In 16 games, he is averaging 7.6 catches and 103.2 yards per game.
  • Tony Pollard’s output on the ground this season includes 935 yards and five TDs. He is averaging 58.4 yards per game and 4 per attempt (25th in the NFL).
  • Pollard has totaled 53 catches on 65 targets for 295 yards, though he has yet to score a touchdown in the passing game.
  • Brandin Cooks has racked up 618 receiving yards and seven touchdowns with 48 catches on 73 targets. He’s averaging 3.2 receptions and 41.2 yards per game.
  • On defense, Micah Parsons has 59 tackles, 17 TFL, 13 sacks, and two passes defended in 2023.
  • Daron Bland has 66 tackles, three TFL, and eight interceptions this season.
  • Damone Clark has recorded 103 tackles and four TFL this year. His tackle total leads the Cowboys.
  • This season, Markquese Ball has 92 tackles and three TFL.

Commanders

  • Sam Howell is averaging 6.5 passing yards per attempt (23rd in the NFL) and 237 yards per game this year, completing 63.1% of his passes on the way to 3,792 total yards, 20 touchdowns and 19 interceptions through 16 games.
  • He’s added 264 yards on the ground (second on the Commanders), while scoring five rushing touchdowns. He’s averaging 16.5 yards per game and 6 per attempt.
  • Brian Robinson Jr. has 708 rushing yards (leading the Commanders) and five rushing touchdowns, while averaging 50.6 yards per game and 4.2 per attempt (19th in the NFL).
  • Robinson has added 33 receptions (2.4 per game) for 357 yards (25.5 per game) with three receiving touchdowns. He’s been targeted 40 times in the passing game.
  • In 16 games played this season, Terry McLaurin has 73 catches (4.6 receptions per game on 7.6 targets per game) for 946 yards and four receiving touchdowns.
  • Curtis Samuel has 60 catches for 598 yards and four receiving touchdowns. He averages four yards per game through 15 games and has been targeted 87 times.
  • Cody Barton’s 2023 output includes 112 tackles, three TFL, and one interception in 12 games. He is second on the Commanders in tackles.
  • Da’Ron Payne has 50 tackles, 13 TFL, four sacks, and four passes defended.
  • Benjamin St-Juste has 63 tackles, one TFL, one sack, and one interception in the 2023 campaign. He is fifth on the Commanders in tackles.
  • David Mayo has totaled two sacks (fifth on the Commanders) to go with six TFL and 50 tackles through 16 games.

Cowboys vs. Commanders Predictions and Pick

Our pick to win this contest is the Cowboys, and we project that Cowboys will cover the spread (Cowboys -13). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 47 points.

How to Bet on Cowboys vs. Commanders

You can bet this Cowboys vs. Commanders pick at every legal online sportsbook

You can check our live NFL lines for the latest NFL odds, including money lines, spreads, and over/under totals.

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WRITTEN BY

Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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