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The Miami Dolphins (11-6) take the field against the Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) in the AFC Wild Card round of the playoffs at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday, January 13, 2024.
Chiefs vs. Dolphins Odds
Point Spread
The spread for this matchup is set at 4.5 points, with bookmakers listing the Chiefs as the favorites.
Moneyline
As for the moneyline, the Chiefs have -230 odds to pick up the win, while the Dolphins are listed at +190 to claim victory.
Over/Under
Finally, the total for the game is set at 43.5 points.
Game Info
How to Watch Chiefs vs. Dolphins Live?
- Game Day: Saturday, January 13, 2024
- Game Time: 8:00 PM ET
- TV Channel: PEA
- Location: Kansas City, Missouri
- Stadium: Arrowhead Stadium
Betting Preview
Chiefs
The Chiefs rank ninth in total offense this season (351.3 yards per game), but they’ve been shining on the defensive side of the ball, ranking second-best in the NFL with 289.8 yards allowed per game. The Chiefs rank 15th in points scored this season (21.8 points per game), but they’ve been thriving on defense, ranking second-best in the NFL with 17.3 points allowed per game.
The Chiefs rank sixth in passing yards this season (246.4 per game), but they’ve been playing really well on the defensive side of the ball, ranking fourth-best in the NFL with 176.5 passing yards allowed per game. Offensively, the Chiefs rank 19th in the NFL with 104.9 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, they rank 17th in rushing yards allowed per contest (113.2).
From an offensive standpoint, the Chiefs rank sixth in the NFL with a 43.6% third-down percentage. Meanwhile, they rank 10th in third-down conversion rate allowed (37.1%). The Chiefs are putting up 5.5 yards per play on offense (ninth in the league), while sporting the fourth-best yards per play on defense in the NFL (4.7) this season. With 17 forced turnovers (27th in NFL) against 28 turnovers committed (23rd in NFL), the Chiefs’ -11 turnover margin is the fifth-worst in the league.
Dolphins
The Dolphins’ offense has been thriving, posting 401.3 total yards per contest (best) this season. Defensively, they rank 10th by giving up 318.3 total yards per game. The Dolphins’ offense has been dominant, compiling 29.2 points per game (second-best) this season. Defensively, they rank 22nd by allowing 23 points per game.
The Dolphins’ pass defense ranks 15th in the NFL with 221.2 passing yards surrendered per contest, but they’ve been lifted up by their offense, which ranks best by generating 265.5 passing yards per game. The Dolphins are generating 135.8 rushing yards per game on offense this season (sixth-ranked). Meanwhile, they are allowing 97.1 rushing yards per contest (seventh-ranked) on defense.
With a 42.1% third-down conversion percentage on offense, the Dolphins rank seventh in the NFL. Defensively, they rank 20th, giving up a 38.9% third-down rate. The Dolphins’ offense has been leading the charge for the team, as they rank second-best in the NFL with 6.5 yards per play. In terms of defense, they are allowing 5.1 yards per play, which ranks 10th. The Dolphins sport a +2 turnover margin this season, which ranks 12th in the NFL.
Chiefs vs. Dolphins Injury Report
Chiefs
| Player | Pos. | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kadarius Toney | WR | Hip | Out |
| Keith Taylor | CB | Gameday inactive | Out |
| Neil Farrell Jr. | DE | Gameday inactive | Out |
| Justyn Ross | WR | Hamstring | Out |
| Felix Anudike-Uzomah | DE | Gameday inactive | Out |
| BJ Thompson | DE | Gameday inactive | Out |
Dolphins
| Player | Pos. | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | RB | Knee | Probable |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | Ankle | Probable |
| Skylar Thompson | QB | Gameday inactive | Out |
| Jerome Baker | LB | Wrist | Out |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | LB | Foot | Out |
| Robby Anderson | WR | Gameday inactive | Out |
| Tyler Kroft | TE | Gameday inactive | Out |
| Xavien Howard | CB | Foot | Out |
| Kion Smith | OT | Gameday inactive | Out |
| Cam Smith | CB | Gameday inactive | Out |
| Cameron Goode | LB | Knee | Out |
Chiefs vs. Dolphins Betting Analysis
Chiefs Betting Insights
The Chiefs have put together a record of 9-7-1 against the spread this season. In games they were favored in by 4.5 points or more so far this season, the Chiefs have gone 5-4-1 against the spread.
Chiefs games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under five times this season.
Dolphins Betting Insights
The Dolphins are 10-7-0 against the spread this season.
Games involving Dolphins have hit the over nine times this season. This season, the Dolphins have won one out of the five games in which they’ve been the underdog.
The Dolphins have not been a bigger underdog this season than the +190 moneyline set for this game.
Chiefs vs. Dolphins Against The Spread & Betting Records
Chiefs
| Overall | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Point Total AVG | 45.9 | 47.8 | 43.7 |
| Implied Team Total AVG | 26.1 | 27 | 25.1 |
| ATS Record | 9-7-1 | 5-4-0 | 4-3-1 |
| Over/Under Record | 5-11-1 | 1-7-1 | 4-4-0 |
| Moneyline Favorite Record | 9-6 | 4-4 | 5-2 |
| Moneyline Underdog Record | 2-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
Dolphins
| Overall | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Point Total AVG | 47.2 | 45.7 | 48.8 |
| Implied Team Total AVG | 26.9 | 27.2 | 26.6 |
| ATS Record | 10-7-0 | 6-3-0 | 4-4-0 |
| Over/Under Record | 9-8-0 | 4-5-0 | 5-3-0 |
| Moneyline Favorite Record | 10-2 | 7-1 | 3-1 |
| Moneyline Underdog Record | 1-4 | 0-1 | 1-3 |
Players to Watch
Chiefs
- Patrick Mahomes II ranks sixth in the NFL with 4,183 passing yards through 16 games this year, averaging 261.4 per game with a 67.2% completion percentage and 27 touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) against 14 interceptions.
- He has added 389 rushing yards (24.3 per game) without a touchdown on the ground.
- Isiah Pacheco has put up 935 rushing yards with seven touchdowns (66.8 yards per game through 14 games). His 4.6 yards per attempt rank 11th in the NFL.
- Pacheco’s 49 targets through the air have resulted in 44 catches (3.1 per game) for 244 yards (17.4 per game) and two touchdowns.
- Rashee Rice has seven touchdown catches this season, and has 79 receptions for 938 yards on 102 targets, while averaging 4.9 catches and 58.6 yards per game.
- Travis Kelce averages 6.2 receptions and 65.6 yards per game, and has 984 total receiving yards and 93 catches. He’s gotten 121 total targets, and has caught five touchdown passes.
- On defense, Justin Reid has three sacks to go with five TFL, 95 tackles, and one interception in 2023.
- Trent McDuffie has 80 tackles, three TFL, and three sacks this season.
- This season, L’Jarius Sneed has recorded five TFL, 78 tackles, and two interceptions.
- Chris Jones has 30 tackles, 13 TFL, 10.5 sacks, and four passes defended.
Dolphins
- Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 4,624 yards this year (to rank first in the NFL), with 29 touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) and 14 interceptions. He is completing 69.3% of his passes while averaging 272 yards per game and 8.3 per attempt.
- Tyreek Hill has put together a 2023 campaign that includes 119 catches (second in the NFL) for 1,799 yards (first in the NFL) and 13 receiving touchdowns (first in the NFL) through 16 games played. He has been on the receiving end of 171 targets and is averaging 7.4 receptions per game.
- Raheem Mostert has rushed for 18 touchdowns this year, and has totaled 1,012 rushing yards (67.5 per game and 4.8 per attempt).
- Mostert’s stat sheet includes 25 receptions (1.7 per game) on 32 targets for 175 yards (11.7 per game) and three receiving touchdowns.
- Devon Achane has 800 rushing yards (second on the Dolphins) and eight rushing touchdowns, while averaging 72.7 yards per game and 7.8 per carry.
- Achane has also caught 27 passes for 197 yards (sixth on the Dolphins), with three receiving touchdowns. He’s been targeted 37 times and averages 17.9 yards per game.
- Zach Sieler has intercepted one pass in addition to 63 tackles, 11 TFL, 10 sacks, and four passes defended in 2023.
- Christian Wilkins has nine sacks (third on the Dolphins) to go with 11 TFL and 65 tackles.
- David Long has recorded one sack as well as eight TFL and 110 tackles in the 2023 season.
- Jevon Holland’s season stats include 74 tackles, three TFL, and one interception in 12 games. He is fourth on the Dolphins in tackles.
Chiefs vs. Dolphins Predictions and Pick
Our prediction to win this contest is the Chiefs, and we project that Dolphins will cover the spread (Chiefs -4.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 43.5 points.
How to Bet on Chiefs vs. Dolphins
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