Bills vs Steelers Prediction: AFC Wild Card Picks, Live Odds & Start Time

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The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) and Buffalo Bills (11-6) square off in the AFC Wild Card round of the NFL Playoffs at Highmark Stadium on Monday, January 15, 2024.

Bills vs. Steelers Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 10 points, with bookmakers listing the Bills as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Bills have -470 odds to pick up the win, while the Steelers are listed at +360 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the total for the game is set at 39 points.

Game Info

How to Watch Bills vs. Steelers Live?

  • Game Day: Monday, January 15, 2024
  • Game Time: 4:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Orchard Park, New York
  • Stadium: Highmark Stadium

Betting Preview

Bills

The Bills own the ninth-ranked defense this season (307.2 yards allowed per game), and they’ve been better offensively, ranking fourth-best with 374.5 yards per game. The Bills own the sixth-ranked offense this year (26.5 points per game), and they’ve been better on defense, ranking fourth-best with just 18.3 points allowed per game.

The Bills are putting up 244.4 passing yards per game on offense this year (eighth in NFL), and they are giving up 196.6 passing yards per game (seventh) on the other side of the ball. The Bills are averaging 130.1 rushing yards per game on offense, which ranks them seventh in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, they rank 15th, surrendering 110.6 rushing yards per contest.

The Bills have the 18th-ranked defense this season in terms of third-down efficiency (38.6% third-down percentage allowed), and they’ve been more effective on the other side of the ball, ranking best with a 49.8% third-down percentage. The Bills rank 10th in yards per play allowed this year (5.1), but they’ve been thriving on the other side of the ball, ranking fifth-best in the NFL with 5.7 yards per play. The Bills have forced 30 total turnovers (third in NFL) this season and have turned it over 28 times (23rd in NFL) for a turnover margin of +2, 12th-ranked in the league.

Steelers

The Steelers are accumulating 304.3 total yards per game on offense this season (25th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are surrendering 342.1 total yards per contest (21st-ranked). The Steelers rank 27th in the NFL with 17.9 points per contest on offense, and they rank sixth with 19.1 points ceded per game on the defensive side of the ball.

The Steelers are compiling 186.1 passing yards per game on offense this season (25th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are giving up 227.1 passing yards per contest (17th-ranked) on defense. The Steelers are compiling 118.2 rushing yards per contest on offense this season (13th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are giving up 115.1 rushing yards per game (19th-ranked) on defense.

In terms of third-down efficiency, the Steelers rank 22nd in the NFL (36.6% third-down conversion rate) and 21st defensively (39.1% third-down rate allowed). In terms of yards per play, the Steelers rank 22nd in the NFL (5) and 20th defensively (5.4 yards allowed per play). The Steelers have fared really well in terms of turnovers, as their turnover margin of +11 ranks third-best in the NFL, with 27 forced turnovers (eighth in league) and 16 turnovers committed (second in league).

Bills vs. Steelers Injury Report

Bills

Player Pos. Injury Status
Kingsley Jonathan DE Gameday inactive Out
Poona Ford DT Gameday inactive Out
Rasul Douglas CB Knee Out
Tyrel Dodson LB Shoulder Out
Gabriel Davis WR Knee Out
Alec Anderson OT Gameday inactive Out

Steelers

Player Pos. Injury Status
Mitchell Trubisky QB Gameday inactive Out
T.J. Watt LB Mcl Out
Trenton Thompson DB Neck Out
Blake Martinez LB Gameday inactive Out
DeMarvin Leal DE Gameday inactive Out
Darius Rush CB Gameday inactive Out
Dylan Cook OT Gameday inactive Out

Bills vs. Steelers Betting Analysis

Bills Betting Insights

The Bills have covered the spread seven times over 17 games with a set spread. The Bills have yet to cover the spread (0-4) when they are at least 10-point favorites.

Bills games have gone over the total six times this season.

Steelers Betting Insights

The Steelers have registered a 10-7-0 record against the spread this year.

This season, Steelers games have hit the over six times. This season, the Steelers have won six out of the 10 games in which they’ve been the underdog.

The Steelers have not entered a game this season with longer moneyline odds than +360.

Bills vs. Steelers Against The Spread & Betting Records

Bills

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 46.1 45.7 46.4
Implied Team Total AVG 26.5 27.2 25.6
ATS Record 7-10-0 4-5-0 3-5-0
Over/Under Record 6-11-0 3-6-0 3-5-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 10-4 7-2 3-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-2 0-0 1-2

Steelers

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 38.8 38.4 39.3
Implied Team Total AVG 21.2 21.2 21.3
ATS Record 10-7-0 5-4-0 5-3-0
Over/Under Record 6-11-0 4-5-0 2-6-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 4-3 2-2 2-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 6-4 3-2 3-2

Players to Watch

Bills

  • Josh Allen has thrown for 4,306 yards (fourth in the NFL), 29 touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) and 18 interceptions this year. He averages 253.3 yards per game and 7.4 per attempt, while completing 66.5% of his attempts.
  • In addition to his passing statistics, Allen has 524 rushing yards (second on the Bills), with 15 rushing touchdowns.
  • James Cook has put up 1,122 rushing yards (fourth in the NFL) with two touchdowns (66 yards per game across 17 games). His 4.7 yards per attempt rank ninth in the league.
  • He has caught 44 passes (on 54 targets) for 445 receiving yards with four touchdowns. He’s averaging 26.2 receiving yards and 2.6 catches per game.
  • Stefon Diggs has eight touchdown catches this season (eighth in the NFL), and has 107 catches (seventh in the NFL) for 1,183 yards on 160 targets, while averaging 6.3 catches and 69.6 yards per game.
  • Dalton Kincaid has 73 catches for 673 yards and two touchdowns. He’s been targeted 91 times in the air attack, and averages 4.6 receptions and 42.1 yards in 16 games played.
  • On the defensive side for the Bills, Terrel Bernard has put up 143 tackles, 10 TFL, 6.5 sacks, and three interceptions in 2023.
  • Taron Johnson has 98 tackles, three TFL, and one sack this season.
  • Ed Oliver has put up 51 tackles, 14 TFL, 9.5 sacks, and one interception this year.
  • This season, Jordan Poyer has 100 tackles, two TFL, and one sack.

Steelers

  • This year in 17 games, Najee Harris has racked up 1,035 rushing yards (leading the Steelers and seventh in the NFL) and scored eight rushing touchdowns. He averages 60.9 yards per game and 4.1 per attempt (23rd in the NFL).
  • George Pickens has 63 catches for 1,140 yards and five receiving touchdowns. He has been targeted 106 times and averages 3.7 receptions per game in 17 games played.
  • Jaylen Warren has rushed for four touchdowns this year, and has totaled 784 rushing yards (46.1 per game and 5.3 per carry).
  • Warren’s offensive output includes 61 receptions (3.6 per game) on 74 targets for 370 yards (21.8 per game), though he has not scored a touchdown in the passing game.
  • Kenny Pickett has 2,070 passing yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions. His completion percentage is 62% and he averages 172.5 yards per game and 6.4 per attempt.
  • Pickett also has one rushing touchdown and 54 rushing yards (fourth on the Steelers).
  • Alex Highsmith has put up seven sacks (second on the Steelers) to go with eight TFL, 57 tackles, and two interceptions over 17 games in 2023.
  • Elandon Roberts has 100 tackles, 10 TFL, and 2.5 sacks. He leads the Steelers in tackles.
  • During the 2023 season, Damontae Kazee has 61 tackles and two interceptions through 14 games.
  • Larry Ogunjobi has registered three sacks (fourth on the Steelers) to go with three TFL and 43 tackles over 17 games.

Bills vs. Steelers Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this matchup is the Bills, and we project that Steelers will cover the spread (Bills -10). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 39 points.

How to Bet on Bills vs. Steelers

You can bet this Bills vs. Steelers pick at every legal online sportsbook

You can check our live NFL lines for the latest NFL odds, including money lines, spreads, and over/under totals.

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WRITTEN BY

Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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