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The Buffalo Bills (9-6), who have won three straight, head into a tilt against the New England Patriots (4-11) on Sunday, December 31, 2023 at Highmark Stadium.
Bills vs. Patriots Odds
Point Spread
The spread for this matchup is set at 15 points, with sportsbooks listing the Bills as the favorites.
Moneyline
As for the moneyline, the Bills have -1200 odds to pick up the win, while the Patriots are listed at +750 to claim victory.
Over/Under
Finally, the total for the game is set at 40 points.
Game Info
How to Watch Bills vs. Patriots Live?
- Game Day: Sunday, December 31, 2023
- Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
- TV Channel: CBS
- Location: Orchard Park, New York
- Stadium: Highmark Stadium
Betting Preview
Bills
The Bills own the 10th-ranked defense this season (310.2 yards allowed per game), and they’ve been better on offense, ranking fourth-best with 374.1 yards per game. The Bills have been a tough matchup for opposing teams, as they rank top-five in both scoring offense (fifth-best with 26.9 points per game) and scoring defense (fourth-best with 18.4 points allowed per game) this year.
The Bills are putting up 243.7 passing yards per game on offense (ninth in the NFL), and they rank ninth defensively with 198.9 passing yards allowed per game. From an offensive standpoint, the Bills rank seventh in the NFL with 130.5 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, they rank 16th in rushing yards allowed per contest (111.3).
On offense, the Bills have been a top-five unit in terms of third-down efficiency, ranking best in the NFL by putting up a 49.2% third-down conversion rate. They rank 16th on defense (38.5% third-down percentage allowed). The Bills rank 11th in yards per play allowed this season (5.1), but they’ve been shining on offense, ranking fourth-best in the NFL with 5.8 yards per play. With 24 forced turnovers (seventh in NFL) against 24 turnovers committed (24th in NFL), the Bills (0) have the 15th-ranked turnover margin in the NFL.
Patriots
The Patriots’ offense has been bottom-five in total offense this season, putting up 285.5 total yards per game, which ranks fifth-worst in the NFL. Defensively, they rank seventh with 306.1 total yards ceded per contest. The Patriots have not been getting things done on offense, ranking worst in the NFL with 14.1 points per game. They have been more productive on the other side of the ball, allowing 21.5 points per contest (15th-ranked).
The Patriots are generating 189.8 passing yards per contest on offense this season (24th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are surrendering 221.3 passing yards per game (15th-ranked) on defense. The Patriots have been thriving on run defense, surrendering just 84.8 rushing yards per contest (second-best). On offense, they rank 25th in the NFL by putting up 95.7 rushing yards per game.
The Patriots’ third-down offense has been a bottom-five unit this season, registering a 31.3% third-down percentage, which ranks third-worst in the NFL. On defense, they rank eighth with a 36.7% third-down rate surrendered. The Patriots rank fourth-worst in yards per play on offense (4.7), but at least they’ve been playing well on defense, ranking fourth-best in yards allowed per play (4.8). After forcing 16 turnovers (24th in NFL) and turning the ball over 23 times (21st in NFL) this season, the Patriots have the 26th-ranked turnover margin of -7.
Bills vs. Patriots Injury Report
Bills
| Player | Pos. | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Von Miller | LB | Gameday inactive | Out |
| A.J. Epenesa | DE | Ribs | Probable |
| DaQuan Jones | DT | Pectoral | Probable |
| Linval Joseph | DT | Gameday inactive | Out |
| Kaiir Elam | CB | Gameday inactive | Out |
| Alec Anderson | OT | Gameday inactive | Out |
Patriots
| Player | Pos. | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | Ankle | Out |
| JaMycal Hasty | RB | Gameday inactive | Out |
| Anfernee Jennings | LB | Illness | Probable |
| Kyle Dugger | DB | Illness | Probable |
| Shaun Wade | CB | Hip | Probable |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | Ankle | Out |
| Hunter Henry | TE | Knee | Out |
| Myles Bryant | DB | Chest | Probable |
| Jonathan Jones | DB | Knee | Probable |
| Jabrill Peppers | DB | Hamstring | Out |
| Matthew Slater | WR | Hamstring | Probable |
| Nathan Rourke | QB | Gameday inactive | Out |
| Kayshon Boutte | WR | Illness | Out |
Bills vs. Patriots Betting Analysis
Bills Betting Insights
The Bills are 6-9-0 against the spread this season. The Bills have yet to cover the spread when they are at least 15-point favorites (0-1).
This season, five Bills games have gone over the point total.
Patriots Betting Insights
The Patriots are 4-10-1 against the spread this season.
This year, six Patriots games have gone over the point total. The Patriots have won three, or 27.3%, of the 11 games they’ve played as underdogs this season.
The Patriots have not entered a game this season with longer moneyline odds than +750.
Bills vs. Patriots Against The Spread & Betting Records
Bills
| Overall | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Point Total AVG | 46.3 | 46.4 | 46.2 |
| Implied Team Total AVG | 26.5 | 27.1 | 25.7 |
| ATS Record | 6-9-0 | 4-4-0 | 2-5-0 |
| Over/Under Record | 5-10-0 | 2-6-0 | 3-4-0 |
| Moneyline Favorite Record | 8-4 | 6-2 | 2-2 |
| Moneyline Underdog Record | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 |
Patriots
| Overall | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Point Total AVG | 40.1 | 41.4 | 38.6 |
| Implied Team Total AVG | 22.3 | 22.6 | 22.0 |
| ATS Record | 4-10-1 | 1-6-1 | 3-4-0 |
| Over/Under Record | 6-9-0 | 3-5-0 | 3-4-0 |
| Moneyline Favorite Record | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Moneyline Underdog Record | 3-8 | 1-5 | 2-3 |
Players to Watch
Bills
- Josh Allen ranks sixth in the NFL with 3,778 passing yards in 15 games this year, averaging 251.9 per game with a 66.5% completion percentage and 27 touchdowns (fourth in the NFL) against 15 interceptions.
- In addition to his passing stats, Allen has 413 rushing yards (second on the Bills), with 13 rushing touchdowns.
- James Cook has collected 1,038 rushing yards (third in the NFL) with two touchdowns (69.2 yards per game through 15 games). His 5.0 yards per attempt rank seventh in the league.
- Cook’s 47 targets in the passing game have resulted in 40 catches (2.7 per game) for 433 yards (28.9 per game) and four touchdowns.
- Stefon Diggs has eight touchdown catches this season (eighth in the NFL), and has 96 receptions (eighth in the NFL) for 1,070 yards on 145 targets, while averaging 6.4 catches and 71.3 yards per game.
- Gabriel Davis averages 2.9 receptions and 48.3 yards per game, and has 725 total receiving yards and 43 catches. He’s gotten 76 total targets, and has caught seven touchdown passes.
- On defense for the Bills, Terrel Bernard has put up 124 tackles, 7.0 TFL, 4.5 sacks, and three interceptions in 2023.
- Taron Johnson has 1.0 sack in addition to his 2.0 TFL and 85 tackles.
- Ed Oliver has put up 48 tackles, 13.0 TFL, 8.5 sacks, and two passes defended.
- This season, Rasul Douglas has 59 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and three interceptions. He’s fifth on the Bills in tackles.
Patriots
- Mac Jones is averaging 6.1 passing yards per attempt (28th in the NFL) and 192.7 yards per game this year, completing 64.9% of his passes on the way to 2,120 total yards, 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions through 11 games.
- Ezekiel Elliott has scored two rushing touchdowns, while totaling 549 rushing yards (3.5 per attempt and 36.6 per game).
- Elliott also has 45 catches for 280 yards (fifth on the Patriots), with two receiving touchdowns. He has been targeted 56 times and averages 18.7 yards per game.
- Hunter Henry has put up 419 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 42 receptions, while being targeted 62 times this season.
- Through eight games, Bailey Zappe has 975 passing yards, with six touchdowns against four interceptions and completing 63.5% of his passes.
- So far in 2023, Kyle Dugger has put up 1.5 sacks to go with 6.0 TFL, 91 tackles, and two interceptions over 15 games.
- Ja’Whaun Bentley’s stat sheet includes 96 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 4.0 sacks, and three passes defended.
- Jahlani Tavai has intercepted two passes on top of 91 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and five passes defended during the 2023 season.
- Christian Barmore has registered 8.5 sacks (first on the Patriots) to go with 11.0 TFL and 49 tackles through 15 games.
Bills vs. Patriots Predictions and Pick
Our pick to win this matchup is the Bills, and we project that Bills will cover the spread (Bills -15). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 40 points.
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