Bills vs. Patriots Prediction: Week 13 Odds, Picks & Moneyline – December 1, 2022

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The Buffalo Bills (8-3) visit a fellow AFC East opponent on Thursday, December 1, 2022, when they take on the New England Patriots (6-5) at Gillette Stadium.

Bills vs. Patriots Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3.5 points, with sportsbooks listing the Bills as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Bills have -190 odds to pick up the win, while the Patriots are listed at +160 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the total for the game is set at 43.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Bills vs. Patriots Live?

  • Game Day: Thursday, December 1, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:15 PM ET
  • TV Channel: AMAZON
  • Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
  • Stadium: Gillette Stadium

Betting Preview

Bills

The Bills rank 12th in total defense this season (327.3 yards allowed per game), but they’ve been thriving on the other side of the ball, ranking second-best in the NFL with 415.9 total yards per game. The Bills have been a tough opponent for opposing teams, as they rank top-five in both scoring offense (second-best with 28.1 points per game) and scoring defense (fifth-best with 18.1 points allowed per game) this season.

The Bills sport the 19th-ranked defense this year in terms of passing yards (221.6 allowed per game), and they’ve been more effective on offense, ranking third-best with 279.2 passing yards per game. The Bills are putting up 136.7 rushing yards per game on offense (eighth in the NFL), and they rank seventh on the other side of the ball with 105.6 rushing yards allowed per game.

The Bills rank 18th in third-down defense this season (40.0% third-down percentage allowed), but they’ve been thriving on the offensive side of the ball, ranking second-best in the NFL with a 50.8% third-down conversion rate. On offense, the Bills have been a top-five unit in terms of yards per play, ranking second-best in the NFL by averaging 6.3 yards per play. They rank ninth on defense (5.2 yards per play allowed). With 20 forced turnovers (second in NFL) against 19 turnovers committed (30th in NFL), the Bills (+1) own the 13th-ranked turnover margin in the league.

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Patriots

The Patriots’ defensive unit has been paving the way for the team, as they rank fourth-best in the NFL with 307.8 total yards surrendered per game. In terms of offense, they are accumulating 325.9 total yards per game, which ranks 21st. In terms of points scored the Patriots rank 18th in the NFL (21.7 points per game), and they are sixth on the other side of the ball (18.4 points allowed per contest).

In terms of passing, the Patriots rank 19th in the NFL (216.9 passing yards per game) and ninth on defense (198.5 passing yards allowed per game). The Patriots rank 23rd in the NFL with 109.0 rushing yards per contest on offense, and they rank ninth with 109.3 rushing yards ceded per game on the defensive side of the ball.

In terms of third-down efficiency, the Patriots rank 25th in the NFL (37.1% third-down conversion percentage) and 10th on defense (38.5% third-down rate allowed). With 5.4 yards per play on offense, the Patriots rank 17th in the NFL. Defensively they rank seventh, giving up 5.0 yards per play. With 18 forced turnovers (fifth in NFL) and 17 turnovers committed (27th in NFL) this season, the Patriots rank 13th in the NFL with a turnover margin of +1.

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Bills vs. Patriots Injury Report

Bills

Player Pos. Injury Status
Von Miller LB Knee Out
Christian Benford CB Oblique Out
Dion Dawkins OT Ankle Out
Ike Boettger OG Achilles Questionable

Patriots

Player Pos. Injury Status
Damien Harris RB Thigh Out
Jakobi Meyers WR Shoulder Questionable
Jabrill Peppers DB Illness Questionable
Jalen Mills CB Groin Questionable
David Andrews C Thigh Questionable
Marcus Jones DB Ankle Questionable

Bills vs. Patriots Betting Analysis

Bills Betting Insights

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The Bills have covered the spread in a game five times this season (5-6-0). In games they were favored in by 3.5 points or more so far this season, the Bills have gone 3-6 against the spread.

This season, Bills games have hit the over three times. The Bills won 64.3% of the games last season when they were the moneyline favorite (9-5).

The Bills finished 8-4 last year (winning 66.7% of their games) when they played as a moneyline favorite of -190 or shorter.

Patriots Betting Insights

The Patriots have put together a 6-4-1 record against the spread this season. The Patriots have a perfect 1-0 ATS record when playing as at least 3.5-point underdogs.

This year, Patriots games have hit the over five times. The Patriots have been underdogs in five games this season and won one (20%) of those contests.

The Patriots have played as an underdog of +160 or more once this season and lost that game.

Bills vs. Patriots Against The Spread & Betting Records

Bills

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 49.9 47.4 51.9
Implied Total AVG 28.6 28.8 28.5
ATS Record 5-6-0 3-2-0 2-4-0
Over/Under Record 3-8-0 3-2-0 0-6-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 8-3 4-1 4-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0

Patriots

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 42.0 42.1 41.8
Implied Total AVG 23.2 23.2 23.2
ATS Record 6-4-1 3-2-0 3-2-1
Over/Under Record 5-6-0 2-3-0 3-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 5-1 3-1 2-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-4 0-1 1-3

Players to Watch

Bills

  • Josh Allen ranks second in the NFL with 3,183 passing yards in 11 games this year, averaging 289.4 per game with a 63.9% completion percentage and 23 touchdowns (second in the NFL) against 11 interceptions.
  • He has also rushed for 561 yards (first on the Bills) and added five touchdowns on the ground, while averaging 51.0 rushing yards per game.
  • Stefon Diggs has caught 84 passes (second in the NFL) on 118 targets for 1,110 total yards (third in the NFL) and nine touchdowns. He is averaging 7.6 catches and 100.9 yards per game in 11 games.
  • Devin Singletary has 552 rushing yards with three touchdowns (50.2 yards per game through 11 games).
  • Singletary has 31 catches on 41 targets for 226 yards, with one receiving TD.
  • Gabriel Davis has 650 receiving yards and five touchdowns with 33 catches on 59 targets. He’s averaging 3.3 receptions and 65.0 yards per game.
  • Over on the defensive side, Matt Milano has two interceptions to go with 62 tackles, 11.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and seven passes defended in 2022.
  • Damar Hamlin has 1.5 sacks (fifth on the Bills) as well as 4.0 TFL and 70 tackles.
  • Tremaine Edmunds has totaled 66 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and 1.0 sack so far this year.
  • Taron Johnson has 3.0 TFL, 63 tackles, and one interception on the season.

Patriots

  • Rhamondre Stevenson averages 61.8 rushing yards per game this year (680 total yards), while scoring four rushing touchdowns.
  • On top of his impact in the run game, Stevenson has caught 50 passes (on 60 targets) for 359 yards (third on the Patriots), with one receiving touchdown. He’s averaging 32.6 yards per game.
  • Mac Jones has 1,768 passing yards, six touchdowns and seven interceptions. His completion percentage is 69.2% and he averages 221.0 yards per game and 7.6 per attempt.
  • Jones also has one rushing touchdown and 81 rushing yards (third on the Patriots).
  • So far this season, DeVante Parker has caught 21 passes for 420 receiving yards with one touchdown through the air. He has been targeted 34 total times and is averaging 2.1 receptions per game through 10 games played.
  • Hunter Henry has 323 receiving yards and two touchdowns from 23 receptions after getting 34 targets.
  • So far in 2022, Matthew Judon has recorded 13.0 sacks to go with 10.0 TFL and 41 tackles through 11 games. He ranks first in the NFL in sacks.
  • Deatrich Wise has 41 tackles, 6.0 TFL, and 6.5 sacks. He is fourth on the Patriots in tackles.
  • Ja’Whaun Bentley has intercepted one pass on top of 68 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 2.0 sacks, and one pass defended in the 2022 campaign.
  • Devin McCourty has registered 54 tackles and two interceptions through 11 games.

Bills vs. Patriots Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this game is the Bills, and we expect that Patriots will cover the spread (Bills -3.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 43.5 points.

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How to Bet on Bills vs. Patriots

You can bet on Bills vs. Patriots at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Bills vs. Patriots picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Luis Escalante

Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014 and is currently the Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. Luis comes from an analytics background, leveraging his data skills with multiple years of experience in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting.

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