Bills vs Jets Prediction: Week 1 Picks, Live Odds & Start Time – September 11, 2023

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Two AFC East rivals clash on Monday, September 11, 2023 at MetLife Stadium when the Buffalo Bills (0-0) and the New York Jets (0-0) square off.

Bills vs. Jets Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 2.5 points, with bookmakers listing the Bills as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Bills have -135 odds to pick up the win, while the Jets are listed at +114 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 44.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Bills vs. Jets Live?

  • Game Day: Monday, September 11, 2023
  • Game Time: 8:15 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ABC
  • Location: East Rutherford, New Jersey
  • Stadium: MetLife Stadium

Betting Preview


The Bills averaged 9.8 more points scored last season (28.4) than the Jets allowed (18.6). In games where the Bills scored more than 18.6 points last season, they were 13-2 overall and 8-7 against the spread.

The Bills’ offense averaged 397.6 yards per game last season, 86.5 more than the 311.1 the Jets’ defense allowed. The Bills earned 6.1 yards per play, while the Jets allowed 4.8.

The Bills’ record last year when they accumulated more than the Jets’ season average in total yards allowed (311.1): 12-3 overall, 8-7 ATS.

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The Jets’ average points scored last season (17.4) and the Bills’ average points allowed (17.9) were within 0.5 points of each other. When they went over what the Bills gave up last year (17.9 points per game), the Jets were 6-1 overall and 6-1 against the spread. The Bills’ defense surrendered 319.1 yards per game last year, just 0.9 yards more than the 318.2 the Jets’ offense gained. The Jets picked up 5.0 yards per play, while the Bills conceded 5.1.

In contests when the Jets offense accumulated more than the Bills’ average yard allowance last year (319.1), the team was 4-5 against the spread and 4-5 overall.

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Bills vs. Jets Injury Report


Player Pos. Injury Status
Kingsley Jonathan DE Gameday inactive Out
Baylon Spector LB Hamstring Out
Kaiir Elam CB Gameday inactive Out
Alec Anderson OT Gameday inactive Out
Justin Shorter WR Hamstring Out


Player Pos. Injury Status
Breece Hall RB Knee Probable
Kenny Yeboah TE Hamstring Out
Duane Brown OT Shoulder Probable
Jason Brownlee WR Gameday inactive Out
Carter Warren OT Undisclosed Out
Mekhi Becton OT Illness Probable
Irvin Charles WR Gameday inactive Out
Zaire Barnes LB Gameday inactive Out
Israel Abanikanda RB Gameday inactive Out

Bills vs. Jets Betting Analysis

Bills Betting Insights

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The Bills had eight wins in 16 games against the spread last year. Against the spread, as 2.5-point favorites or more, the Bills went 8-10 last year.

In 16 Bills games last year, six went over the total.

Jets Betting Insights

Against the spread, the Jets were 8-9-0 last year. The Jets’ ATS record as underdogs of 2.5 points or more was 6-6 last season.

Last season, New York was the underdog 12 times and won five, or 41.7%, of those games. New York entered 12 games last season as the underdog by +114 or more and were 5-7 in those contests. The Jets had five of their 17 games hit the over last year.

The Jets were underdogs in 12 games last season and won five (41.7%) of those contests. The Jets had a record of 5-7 in games where bookmakers had them as underdogs of at least +114 on the moneyline.

Bills vs. Jets Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 47.8 46.2 49.5
Implied Team Total AVG 27.6 27.9 27.4
ATS Record 8-8-0 4-4-0 4-4-0
Over/Under Record 6-10-0 5-3-0 1-7-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 13-3 7-1 6-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 41.5 42.3 40.8
Implied Team Total AVG 23.3 23.9 22.8
ATS Record 8-9-0 3-5-0 5-4-0
Over/Under Record 5-12-0 2-6-0 3-6-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 2-3 1-2 1-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 5-7 2-3 3-4

Players to Watch


  • Josh Allen averaged 7.6 passing yards per attempt (sixth in the NFL) and 267.7 yards per game last year, completing 63.3% of his passes on the way to 4,283 total yards (seventh in the NFL), 35 touchdowns (second in the NFL) and 14 interceptions in 16 games.
  • Allen also rushed for seven touchdowns and 762 yards.
  • Stefon Diggs had 1,429 receiving yards (fifth in the NFL) and 11 touchdowns (third in the NFL) on 108 receptions (fourth in the NFL), while being targeted 154 times.
  • Last season over 13 games, Latavius Murray churned out 760 rushing yards and scored six rushing touchdowns. He averaged 58.5 yards per game and 4.4 per attempt (25th in the NFL).
  • Murray’s stat sheet included 27 receptions (2.1 per game) on 35 targets for 132 yards (10.2 per game), but he did not found the end zone through the air.
  • Gabriel Davis had 48 catches for 836 yards and seven receiving touchdowns. He averaged 3.2 yards per game over 15 games and was targeted 93 times.
  • Matt Milano’s 2022 effort included 99 tackles, 12.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and three interceptions in 15 games.
  • For the Rams last season, Leonard Floyd had 9.0 sacks to go with 10.0 TFL and 59 tackles.
  • Taron Johnson intercepted one pass on top of89 tackles, 6.0 TFL, and nine passes defended during the 2022 season.
  • For the Rams, Taylor Rapp intercepted two passes to go with 92 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and six passes defended.


  • In addition to his 3,695 passing yards and 64.6% completion percentage last year for the Packers, Aaron Rodgers tallied 26 touchdowns against 12 interceptions.
  • Rodgers also helped the offense on the ground, rushing for 94 yards (2.8 YPC) and one touchdown.
  • Dalvin Cook put up 1,173 rushing yards (4.4 yards per carry) for the Vikings last season, and eight TDs.
  • Cook had 39 receptions (2.3 per game) for 295 yards (17.4 per game) and two TDs.
  • Garrett Wilson was a key part of the air attack last year, tallying 83 receptions for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns.
  • Allen Lazard got 100 targets last season with the Packers, and converted them into 60 catches (4.0 per game) for 788 yards and six TDs.
  • Last season C.J. Mosley compiled 158 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and one interception in 17 games.
  • Quinnen Williams was on the field for 16 games, posting 55 tackles, 12.0 TFL, 12.0 sacks, and four passes defended.
  • With 106 tackles, 12.0 TFL, and 3.0 sacks, Quincy Williams was a significant contributor last year on defense.
  • Adrian Amos was an important player on D last season for the Packers, with one interception to go with 97 tackles, 7.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and five passes defended.

Bills vs. Jets Predictions and Pick

Our pick to win this game is the Bills, and we project that Bills will cover the spread (Bills -2.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 44.5 points.

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How to Bet on Bills vs. Jets

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