Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction: Odds, Picks & Betting Preview Week 2 – September 17, 2023

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An AFC East showdown between the Miami Dolphins (1-0) and New England Patriots (0-1) is slated for Sunday, September 17, 2023 at Gillette Stadium.

Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 2 points, with bookmakers listing the Dolphins as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Dolphins have -125 odds to pick up the win, while the Patriots are listed at +105 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 46.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Dolphins vs. Patriots Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, September 17, 2023
  • Game Time: 8:20 PM ET
  • TV Channel: NBC
  • Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
  • Stadium: Gillette Stadium

Betting Preview


The Dolphins, on average, scored three more points (23.4) than the Patriots allowed (20.4) last year. In games where the Dolphins scored more than 20.4 points last season, they were 6-2 overall and 5-1-2 against the spread.

The Dolphins’ offense averaged 364.5 yards per game last season, 42.5 more than the 322 the Patriots’ defense allowed. The Dolphins earned 6.1 yards per play, while the Patriots allowed 5.

When the Dolphins offense put together a game with more than the Patriots’ average yardage allowed (322) last year, they were 6-5 overall and 4-5-2 against the spread.

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The Patriots’ average points scored last season (21.4) and the Dolphins’ average points allowed (23.5) were within 2.1 points. When they exceeded what the Dolphins gave up last season (23.5 points per game), the Patriots were 4-4 overall and 5-3 against the spread. The Patriots’ offense gained 314.6 yards per game last year, 23.2 yards fewer than the 337.8 surrendered by the Dolphins’ defense. The Patriots accumulated 5.3 yards per play, while the Dolphins allowed 5.3.

In contests when the Patriots offense accumulated more than the Dolphins’ average yard allowance last year (337.8), the team was 2-3-1 against the spread and 3-3 overall.

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Dolphins vs. Patriots Injury Report


Player Pos. Injury Status
Skylar Thompson QB Gameday inactive Out
Cedrick Wilson WR Gameday inactive Out
Elijah Campbell DB Knee Out
Jaelan Phillips LB Back Out
Terron Armstead OT Back Out
Kelvin Joseph CB Personal Out
Julian Hill TE Ankle Out


Player Pos. Injury Status
DeVante Parker WR Knee Questionable
Jonathan Jones DB Ankle Out
Ameer Speed DB Gameday inactive Out

Dolphins vs. Patriots Betting Analysis

Dolphins Betting Insights

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The Dolphins had seven wins in 17 games against the spread last season. As 2-point favorites or greater, the Dolphins went 3-5-2 against the spread last season.

In 17 Dolphins games last year, eight went over the total.

Patriots Betting Insights

Patriots posted a 7-9-1 record against the spread last year. The Patriots had two wins ATS (2-7) as a 2-point underdog or more last season.

Last season, New England won one out of the nine games in which it was the underdog. New England entered nine games last season as the underdog by +105 or more and were 1-8 in those contests. Last season, eight of the Patriots’ 17 games hit the over.

The Patriots won one of the nine games they played as underdogs last season. The Patriots had a record of 1-8 in games where bookmakers had them as underdogs of at least +105 on the moneyline.

Dolphins vs. Patriots Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 46.8 46.5 47
Implied Team Total AVG 25.9 26.1 25.8
ATS Record 7-8-2 4-3-1 3-5-1
Over/Under Record 8-9-0 1-7-0 7-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 7-3 5-1 2-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-5 1-1 1-4


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 42.4 42.2 42.7
Implied Team Total AVG 23.3 23 23.6
ATS Record 7-9-1 3-5-0 4-4-1
Over/Under Record 8-9-0 3-5-0 5-4-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 7-1 4-1 3-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-8 0-3 1-5

Players to Watch


  • Tua Tagovailoa averaged 8.9 passing yards per attempt (first in the NFL) and 272.9 yards per game last year, completing 64.8% of his passes on the way to 3,548 total yards, 25 touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) and eight interceptions in 13 games.
  • Tyreek Hill had 1,710 receiving yards (second in the NFL) and seven touchdowns on 119 receptions (second in the NFL), while being targeted 170 times.
  • Last season, Jaylen Waddle caught 75 passes for 1,356 receiving yards (seventh in the NFL) with eight touchdowns through the air. He was targeted 117 total times and averaged 4.4 receptions per game over 17 games played.
  • Raheem Mostert scored three touchdowns on the ground, while running for 891 total yards (4.9 per attempt and 55.7 per game).
  • Mostert also caught 31 passes for 202 yards with two receiving touchdowns. He was targeted 42 times and averaged 12.6 yards per game.
  • In 2022, Christian Wilkins put up 98 tackles, 16 TFL, and 3.5 sacks through 17 games.
  • Jerome Baker’s stat sheet included 100 tackles, six TFL, four sacks, and four passes defended.
  • Jaelan Phillips had 60 tackles, eight TFL, and seven sacks in the 2022 season.
  • Jevon Holland’s stats included two interceptions as well as 93 tackles, one TFL, 1.5 sacks, and seven passes defended in 17 games


  • Last year Rhamondre Stevenson ran for 1,040 yards (61.2 yards per carry) and five rushing touchdowns.
  • Stevenson made a difference in the passing attack too, catching 69 balls on 88 targets for 421 yards and one touchdown.
  • Mac Jones played 14 games last season, and totaled 2,997 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and a 65.2% completion percentage.
  • When he wasn’t moving the ball through the air, Jones ran for 102 yards (7.3 yards per game) and one touchdown.
  • Ezekiel Elliott scampered for 876 yards (58.4 yards per game) and 12 TDs with the Cowboys last season.
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster was targeted 101 times with the Chiefs last season, leading to 78 receptions, 933 yards and three touchdowns in 16 games.
  • Last season Matthew Judon totaled 60 tackles, 14 TFL, and 15.5 sacks in 17 games.
  • With one interception to go with 122 tackles, five TFL, three sacks, and two passes defended in 17 games, Ja’Whaun Bentley was a key player on defense last year.
  • In 15 games, Kyle Dugger recorded 72 tackles, five TFL, one sack, and three interceptions.
  • With 68 tackles and four interceptions, Jonathan Jones made a big difference on D.

Dolphins vs. Patriots Predictions and Pick

Our pick to win this matchup is the Dolphins, and we expect that Dolphins will cover the spread (Dolphins -2). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 46.5 points.

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How to Bet on Dolphins vs. Patriots

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