Penn State vs. Michigan State Prediction: Picks & Start Time – November 26, 2022

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The Land Grant Trophy is on the line when the No. 11 Penn State Nittany Lions (9-2) and the Michigan State Spartans (5-6) take the field.

Penn State vs. Michigan State Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 19.5 points, with oddsmakers listing Penn State as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Penn State has -1253 odds to pick up the win, while Michigan State is listed at +714 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the total for the game is set at 53.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Penn State vs. Michigan State Live?

  • Game Day: Saturday, November 26, 2022
  • Game Time: 4:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: Fox Sports 1
  • Location: University Park, Pennsylvania
  • Stadium: Beaver Stadium

Betting Preview

Penn State

On defense, Penn State has been a top-25 unit, ranking 21st-best by allowing only 323.6 yards per game. The offense ranks 36th (434.5 yards per game). Penn State has been finding success on both sides of the ball, ranking 20th-best in scoring offense (35.9 points per game) and 13th-best in scoring defense (18.2 points allowed per game). Penn State is compiling 250.4 passing yards per game on offense (44th in the FBS), and ranks 47th on the other side of the ball with 210.5 passing yards allowed per game. Defensively, Penn State has been a top-25 unit in terms of rushing yards, ranking 22nd-best by surrendering only 113.2 per game. The Nittany Lions rank 46th on offense (184.1 rushing yards per game). Penn State ranks 104th in third-down conversion rate this season (35.1%), but has been shining on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 15th-best in the FBS with a 31.0% third-down conversion rate allowed. Penn State has forced 21 total turnovers (15th in the FBS) this season and have turned it over 14 times (40th in the FBS) for a turnover margin of +7, the 18th-best in college football.

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Michigan State

With 362.0 total yards per game on offense, Michigan State ranks 91st in the FBS in 2022. On defense, it ranks 103rd, allowing 417.1 total yards per game. Michigan State ranks 86th in the FBS with 25.2 points per contest on offense, and it ranks 72nd with 26.7 points ceded per contest on the defensive side of the ball. In terms of passing, Michigan State ranks 55th in the FBS (241.0 passing yards per game) and 87th on defense (236.8 passing yards allowed per contest). In terms of rushing, Michigan State ranks 104th in the FBS on offense (121.0 rushing yards per game) and 99th on defense (180.3 rushing yards allowed per contest). Michigan State’s defense has been bottom-25 on third down this season, surrendering a 43.2% third-down conversion percentage, which ranks 22nd-worst in the FBS. On the offensive side of the ball, it ranks 61st with a 43.2% third-down rate. With 12 forced turnovers (105th in the FBS) and 13 turnovers committed (29th in the FBS) this season, Michigan State ranks 100th in the FBS with a turnover margin of -1.

Penn State vs. Michigan State Betting Analysis

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Penn State Betting Insights

Penn State is 8-3-0 against the spread this season. Penn State has 1-2 ATS when playing as at least 19.5-point favorites. This season, eight Penn State games have gone over the point total. The Nittany Lions have won all nine of the games they have been favored on the moneyline this season. The Nittany Lions have played in four games as a moneyline favorite with odds of -1253 or shorter and won them all.

Spartans Betting Insights

Michigan State has gone 5-6-0 against the spread this season. In games they have played as 19.5-point underdogs or more, the Spartans have an ATS record of 1-1. Michigan State games have gone over the total five times this season. The Spartans have entered the game as underdogs seven times this season and won twice. The Spartans have not won as an underdog of +714 or more on the moneyline this season in two such games.

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Penn State vs. Michigan State Against The Spread & Betting Records

Penn State

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 52.0 54.4 49.0
Implied Total AVG 33.4 36.8 29.2
ATS Record 8-3-0 4-2-0 4-1-0
Over/Under Record 8-3-0 3-3-0 5-0-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 9-0 5-0 4-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-2 0-1 0-1

Spartans

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 52.3 51.9 52.9
Implied Total AVG 33.8 34.4 32.8
ATS Record 5-6-0 3-4-0 2-2-0
Over/Under Record 5-6-0 4-3-0 1-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 3-1 3-1 0-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-5 1-2 1-3

Players to Watch

Penn State

  • As part of the Nittany Lions’ defensive unit, Ji’Ayir Brown has recorded 58 tackles, 4.0 TFL, three sacks, and three interceptions in 11 games.
  • As part of the Nittany Lions’ defensive unit, Abdul Carter has posted 4.5 sacks to go with 6.0 TFL and 44 tackles in 11 games.
  • With 42 tackles, 4.0 TFL, two sacks, and one interception in 11 games, Curtis Jacobs has been a key part of the Nittany Lions’ defensive unit in 2022.
  • The Nittany Lions’ defensive unit has been helped by John Dixon, who has suited up for 11 games, posting 3.0 sacks to go with 4.0 TFL, 18 tackles, and two interceptions.

Spartans

  • On defense, Cal Haladay has helped keep opposing offenses in check with 102 tackles, 8.0 TFL, and 1.5 sacks in 11 games.
  • Jacoby Windmon has been causing chaos on defense, compiling one interception to go with 48 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 5.5 sacks, and one pass defended for the Spartans.
  • Kendell Brooks has posted 3.0 TFL and 89 tackles in 11 games for the Spartans.
  • Ben VanSumeren has collected 76 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and two sacks In 11 games for the Spartans.

Penn State vs. Michigan State Predictions and Pick

Penn State vs. Michigan State betting card

    Pick ATS:

    Nittany Lions (-19.5)

    Pick OU:

    Under (53.5)

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How to Bet on Penn State vs. Michigan State

You can bet on Penn State vs. Michigan State at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Penn State vs. Michigan State picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our pick to win this game is Penn State, and we predict that Penn State will cover the spread (Penn State -19.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 53.5 points.

WRITTEN BY

Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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