Western Kentucky vs. UTEP Prediction: Picks & Start Time – November 4, 2023

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CUSA foes will clash when the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (4-4) meet the UTEP Miners (3-6).

Western Kentucky vs. UTEP Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 9 points, with sportsbooks listing Western Kentucky as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Western Kentucky has -385 odds to pick up the win, while UTEP is listed at +280 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 54.5 points.

Game Info

How to Watch Western Kentucky vs. UTEP Live?

  • Game Day: Saturday, November 4, 2023
  • Game Time: 9:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN+
  • Location: El Paso, Texas
  • Stadium: Sun Bowl

Betting Preview

Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky owns the 62nd-ranked offense this season (395.4 yards per game), and have been less effective on defense, ranking third-worst with 467.6 yards allowed per game. Western Kentucky ranks 58th in scoring offense (29.9 points per game) and 100th in scoring defense (29.5 points allowed per game) this year. On offense, Western Kentucky has been a top-25 unit in terms of passing yards, ranking 20th-best in the FBS by compiling 292.8 per game. The Hilltoppers rank 104th on defense (248.5 passing yards allowed per game). It’s been a rough stretch for Western Kentucky in terms of running the ball, ranking 14th-worst in rushing offense (102.6 rushing yards per game) and third-worst in rushing defense (219.1 rushing yards per game allowed) in 2023. Western Kentucky is putting up a 37.9% third-down percentage offensively this season (81st in the FBS), and is allowing a 40.3% third-down conversion rate (88th) on the defensive side of the ball. With 17 forced turnovers (second in the FBS) against 10 turnovers committed (68th in the FBS), Western Kentucky’s +7 turnover margin is the 11th-best in college football.

UTEP

From an offensive angle, UTEP is accumulating 360.9 total yards per contest (87th-ranked). It ranks 83rd in the FBS defensively (385.2 total yards surrendered per game). UTEP has been sputtering on offense, ranking 14th-worst in the FBS with 18.7 points per game. It has been more productive on the other side of the ball, giving up 27.2 points per contest (79th-ranked). In terms of passing, UTEP ranks 100th in the FBS (201.4 passing yards per game) and 42nd on defense (204.9 passing yards allowed per game). UTEP has been struggling against the run, ranking 19th-worst with 180.3 rushing yards surrendered per game. It has been better on the other side of the ball, regstering 159.4 rushing yards per contest (64th-ranked). UTEP’s third-down offense has been bottom-25 this season, posting a 31.6% third-down percentage, which ranks 11th-worst in the FBS. On defense, it ranks 105th with a 43.6% third-down rate ceded. UTEP has a bottom-25 turnover margin this season, 11th-worst at -6.

Western Kentucky vs. UTEP Betting Analysis

Western Kentucky Betting Insights

Western Kentucky has covered the spread in a matchup four times this season (4-4-0). Western Kentucky has 1-1 ATS when playing as at least 9-point favorites. Western Kentucky games have gone over the total four times this season. The Hilltoppers have won three of the four games they were the moneyline favorite this season (75%). The Hilltoppers have played as a moneyline favorite of -385 or shorter in just one game this season, which they won.

UTEP Betting Insights

UTEP is 3-6-0 against the spread this season. UTEP is winless against the spread when it’s 9-point underdogs or more (0-1). This year, UTEP games have hit the over three times. The Miners have entered the game as underdogs six times this season and won twice. The Miners have played as an underdog of +280 or more once this season and lost that game.

Western Kentucky vs. UTEP Against The Spread & Betting Records

Western Kentucky

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 62.4 64.3 60.6
Implied Total AVG 38.4 40.5 36.3
ATS Record 4-4-0 2-2-0 2-2-0
Over/Under Record 4-4-0 2-2-0 2-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 3-1 2-0 1-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-3 0-1 0-2

UTEP

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 48.8 51.5 46.6
Implied Total AVG 26.4 27.3 25.8
ATS Record 3-6-0 1-3-0 2-3-0
Over/Under Record 3-6-0 1-3-0 2-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 1-2 1-1 0-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-4 0-2 2-2

Players to Watch

Western Kentucky

  • Austin Reed has led the charge for the Hilltoppers’ offense this season, posting 2,273 passing yards with 20 passing touchdowns, five interceptions and a 60.2% completion percentage.
  • In addition to the stats he’s posted in the passing game, Reed has also chipped in 94 rushing yards and three touchdowns in eight games.
  • On zero targets, Malachi Corley has 49 grabs (7.0 per game) for 652 yards and seven TDs in seven games.
  • Easton Messer has been an integral part of the Hilltoppers’ passing attack in 2023, registering 27 receptions for 335 yards and three touchdowns.
  • As an important piece of the Hilltoppers’ passing game, River Helms has piled up 217 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 14 catches.
  • The Hilltoppers’ defense has been helped by Kendrick Simpkins, who has suited up for seven games and posted 34 tackles, seven TFL, and five sacks.
  • Talique Allen has helped lead the Hilltoppers’ defense with 39 tackles in eight games.
  • With 31 tackles, two TFL, and two sacks in eight games, Kylan Guidry has been a key piece of the Hilltoppers’ defense in 2023.
  • Anthony Johnson Jr. has been an important piece of the Hilltoppers’ defense in 2023, with two interceptions to go with 26 tackles, one TFL, and two passes defended in six games.

UTEP

  • In eight games, Kelly Akharaiyi has 32 receptions for 645 yards (80.6 per game) and four touchdowns.
  • Deion Hankins has rushed for 679 yards (75.4 per game) and three touchdowns in nine games.
  • On the ground, Torrance Burgess Jr. has scored two touchdowns and picked up 529 yards (58.8 per game).
  • In the passing game, Burgess Jr. has scored zero touchdowns, with 13 catches for 184 yards.
  • In five games, Gavin Hardison has passed for 947 yards (189.4 per game), with five touchdowns and seven interceptions, and a completion percentage of 56.6%.
  • In nine games for the Miners, Tyrice Knight has posted two sacks to go with seven TFL and 86 tackles.
  • In nine games for the Miners, James Neal has totaled one interception to go with 55 tackles, one TFL, and two passes defended.
  • Maurice Westmoreland has delivered five sacks to go with two TFL and 29 tackles in nine games for the Miners.
  • With one interception to go with 26 tackles, one TFL, five sacks, and two passes defended in seven games, Praise Amaewhule has been making a big difference on defense for the Miners.

Western Kentucky vs. UTEP Predictions and Pick

Western Kentucky vs. UTEP betting card

  • Pick ATS:

    Western Kentucky (-9)

  • Pick OU: Under (54.5)

How to Bet on Western Kentucky vs. UTEP

You can bet on Western Kentucky vs. UTEP at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Western Kentucky vs. UTEP picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our pick to win this game is Western Kentucky, and we project that Western Kentucky will cover the spread (Western Kentucky -9). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 54.5 points.

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WRITTEN BY

Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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