Dallas vs. Oklahoma City Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Saturday, May 18, 2024

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The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder are facing off in the second round of the NBA Playoffs, with a decisive Game 6 next to come.

The Mavericks enter their game as a 4-point favorite against the Thunder. The matchup features an over/under of 209.

Mavericks vs. Thunder Odds

Point Spread for Mavericks vs. Thunder

The spread for this matchup is set at 4 points, with oddsmakers listing the Mavericks as the favorite.

Dallas vs. Oklahoma City Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Dallas has -180 odds to win the game, while Oklahoma City is listed at +150 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 209 points.

Game Time and How to Watch

  • When: Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 8:00 PM ET
  • Where: American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas
  • TV: ABC

Mavericks vs. Thunder Betting Trends

The Mavericks have registered a 48-34-0 record against the spread this season. Dallas has been the favorite in 49 games this season and won 37 (75.5%) of those contests. This season, Mavericks games have hit the over 36 times.

The Thunder have covered the spread 46 times over 82 games with a set spread. Oklahoma City has been victorious in 10, or 47.6%, of the 21 contests it has been chosen as an underdog in this season. Games involving the Thunder have hit the over 43 times this season.

Mavericks vs. Thunder Key Players to Watch

Mavericks

Luka Doncic is putting up 33.9 points, 9.8 assists and 9.2 boards per contest. Kyrie Irving’s numbers for the season are 25.6 points, 5.0 boards and 5.2 assists per game, shooting 49.7% from the floor and 41.1% from beyond the arc, with 3.0 made 3-pointers per contest (ninth in NBA). Daniel Gafford’s numbers on the season are 11.0 points, 1.6 assists and 7.6 boards per game. P.J. Washington’s numbers for the season are 12.9 points, 5.6 boards and 1.9 assists per contest, shooting 43.6% from the floor and 32.0% from downtown, with 1.8 made 3-pointers per contest.

Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander provides the Thunder 30.1 points, 5.5 boards and 6.2 assists per game. He also averages 2.0 steals (first in league) and 0.9 blocks. Chet Holmgren adds 16.5 points per game, plus 7.9 boards and 2.4 assists. The Thunder get 19.1 points per game from Jalen Williams, plus 4.0 boards and 4.5 assists. The Thunder get 12.3 points, 6.4 boards and 4.8 assists per game from Josh Giddey.

What you need to know about the Mavericks

The Mavericks rank seventh in the NBA with 117.9 points per game so far this season. At the other end, they rank 20th with 115.6 points allowed per game. The Mavericks rank 21st in the NBA with 42.9 rebounds per game this season. Meanwhile, they rank 25th with 45.1 rebounds allowed per game. The Mavericks rank 19th in the NBA with 25.7 dimes per game.

Dallas posts 118.7 points per game at home, compared to 117.0 points per game on the road, a difference of 1.7 points per contest. Dallas is top-five this season in three-point shooting, ranking third-best in the league with 14.6 treys per game. Meanwhile, it ranks 13th with a 36.9% shooting percentage from three-point land. This season, Dallas is ceding 13.1 threes per game (18th-ranked in NBA) and is allowing opposing teams to shoot 36.8% (18th-ranked) from beyond the arc.

The Mavericks have gone 7-3 in their past 10 contests, with a 7-3 record against the spread in that span. Dallas has gone over the total in four of its last 10 contests. On offense, the Mavericks have had a tough time putting the ball in the basket over their last 10 games, scoring 106.4 points per contest over that stretch as opposed to the 117.9 they’ve put up over the course of this season. Dallas’ defense has been more stingy as of late, as the team has allowed 101.3 points per game over its past 10 compared to the 115.6 points per game its opponents average this season.

What you need to know about the Thunder

In 2023-24, the Thunder are third-best in the league offensively (120.1 points scored per game) and ranked 11th defensively (112.7 points allowed). On the boards, Oklahoma City is fourth-worst in the NBA in rebounds (42.0 per game). It is 23rd in rebounds allowed (44.7 per game). This season the Thunder are ranked 11th in the league in assists at 27.1 per game.

The Thunder are scoring more points at home (123.1 per game) than on the road (117.0). In 2023-24 the Thunder are eighth in the league in 3-point makes (13.3 per game) and best in 3-point percentage (38.9%). Giving up 13.4 3-pointers per game and conceding 36.1% from downtown, Oklahoma City is 22nd and 12th in the NBA, respectively, in those categories.

The Thunder have a 6-4 record against the spread while finishing 7-3 overall over their last 10 contests. In Oklahoma City’s past 10 games, it has hit the over twice. While Oklahoma City is putting up 120.1 points per game in 2023-24, it has fallen short of that in its past 10 games, producing 107.6 points per contest. Over their last 10 games, the Thunder are surrendering 96.3 points per contest, 16.4 fewer points than their season average (112.7).

Mavericks vs. Thunder Prediction & Pick

Our pick to win this game is Thunder, and we predict that Thunder will cover the spread (Mavericks -4). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 209 points.

How to bet Mavericks vs. Thunder

You can bet on Dallas vs. Oklahoma City at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Dallas vs. Oklahoma City picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

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WRITTEN BY

Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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