Troy vs. Duke 76 Birmingham Bowl Prediction: Picks & Start Time – December 23, 2023

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The 76 Birmingham Bowl will feature a matchup between the Troy Trojans and the Duke Blue Devils.

Troy vs. Duke Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 6.5 points, with sportsbooks listing Troy as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Troy has -243 odds to pick up the win, while Duke is listed at +195 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 44 points.

Game Info

How to Watch Troy vs. Duke Live?

  • Game Day: Saturday, December 23, 2023
  • Game Time: 12:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ABC
  • Location: Birmingham, Alabama
  • Stadium: Protective Stadium

Betting Preview

Troy

Troy owns the 36th-ranked offense this year (426.5 yards per game), and has been even more effective defensively, ranking 15th-best with just 306.7 yards allowed per game. Troy ranks 43rd in points scored this season (31.2 points per game), but has been thriving on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 10th-best in the FBS with 17.2 points allowed per game. Troy is averaging 267.0 passing yards per game on offense (32nd in the FBS), and ranks 34th on the other side of the ball with 203.9 passing yards allowed per game. Troy owns the 66th-ranked offense this season in terms of rushing yards (159.5 per game), and has been more effective on the other side of the ball, ranking 13th-best with only 102.8 rushing yards allowed per game. Troy owns the 46th-ranked offense this season in terms of third-down efficiency (41.8% conversion rate), and has been more effective on defense, ranking 19th-best with a 31.8% third-down conversion rate allowed. Troy ranks 65th in college football with an even turnover margin after forcing 12 turnovers (75th in the FBS) and committing 12 (50th in the FBS).

Duke

Duke ranks 94th with 350.6 total yards per contest on offense, and it ranks 46th with 355.1 total yards given up per contest on the defensive side of the ball. Duke’s defense has been leading the way for the team, as it ranks 22nd-best in the FBS with 19.8 points allowed per contest. In terms of offense, it is putting up 27.8 points per game, which ranks 62nd. Duke ranks 22nd-worst in passing yards per game (181.3), but it has been more productive on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 41st in the FBS with 208.3 passing yards allowed per contest. In terms of rushing, Duke ranks 56th in the FBS on offense (169.3 rushing yards per game) and 58th defensively (146.8 rushing yards allowed per game). In terms of third-down efficiency, Duke ranks 91st in the FBS (36.4% third-down conversion rate) and 62nd defensively (38.6% third-down rate allowed). After forcing 11 turnovers (87th in the FBS) and turning the ball over nine times (24th in the FBS) this season, Duke sports the 47th-ranked turnover margin of +2.

Troy vs. Duke Betting Analysis

Troy Betting Insights

Troy has covered the spread in a matchup eight times this season (8-5-0). In games they were favored in by 6.5 points or more so far this season, the Troy has gone 6-2 against the spread. Games involving Troy have hit the over six times this season. The Trojans have been favored on the moneyline 11 total times this season. They’ve finished 10-1 in those games. The Trojans have played seven times as a moneyline favorite with odds of -243 or shorter, and won in each game.

Duke Betting Insights

Duke have put together a 6-6-0 record against the spread this year. In games they have played as 6.5-point or bigger underdogs, Duke owns an ATS record of 2-1. Games involving Duke have hit the over on seven occasions this year. The Blue Devils have won one of the five games they’ve played as underdogs this season. The Blue Devils have entered four games this season as the underdog by +195 or more and are in those contests.

Troy vs. Duke Against The Spread & Betting Records

Troy

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 49.0 49.8 48.0
Implied Total AVG 29.9 30.4 29.3
ATS Record 8-5-0 3-4-0 5-1-0
Over/Under Record 6-7-0 3-4-0 3-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 10-1 6-1 4-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-1 0-0 1-1

Duke

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 47.3 47.1 47.6
Implied Total AVG 29.8 30.1 29.4
ATS Record 6-6-0 4-3-0 2-3-0
Over/Under Record 7-4-1 3-3-1 4-1-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 5-1 4-0 1-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-4 1-1 0-3

Players to Watch

Troy

  • Kimani Vidal has been getting things done on the ground, rushing for 1,583 yards and 14 touchdowns in 13 games.
  • In addition to the numbers he’s produced in the ground attack, Vidal has 17 grabs (on zero targets) for 198 yards and one touchdown.
  • Gunnar Watson has hit the gridiron for 13 games in 2023, and he’s tallied 3,327 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, five interceptions and a 61.2% completion percentage.
  • As part of the Trojans’ aerial attack, Chris Lewis has reeled in 32 balls on zero targets for 734 yards and 10 touchdowns.
  • As a key cog in the Trojans’ pass game, Jabre Barber has racked up 887 receiving yards and five touchdowns on 64 catches.
  • With 15 sacks to go with three TFL and 44 tackles in 11 games, Javon Solomon has been an important piece of the Trojans’ defensive unit in 2023.
  • With four interceptions to go with 43 tackles, two TFL, and five passes defended in 12 games, Reddy Steward has been a significant contributor to the Trojans’ defensive unit in 2023.
  • Richard Jibunor has played 10 games, collecting 42 tackles, two TFL, and nine sacks for the Trojans.
  • The Trojans’ defense has been aided by the play of Jayden McDonald, who has suited up for 12 games, collecting one sack to go with four TFL and 59 tackles.

Duke

  • Jordan Waters has rushed for 753 yards (62.8 per game) and 12 touchdowns in 12 games.
  • In addition, Waters has seven catches for 130 yards and zero touchdowns.
  • In 12 games, Jordan Moore has 59 catches for 794 yards (66.2 per game) and eight touchdowns.
  • In seven games, Riley Leonard has thrown for 1,102 yards (157.4 per game), with three touchdowns and three interceptions, and a completion percentage of 57.6%.
  • On the ground, Leonard has scored four touchdowns and picked up 352 yards.
  • Jaquez Moore has rushed for 601 yards (50.1 per game) and six touchdowns in 12 games.
  • In 11 games for the Blue Devils, Tre Freeman has registered one sack to go with one TFL, 87 tackles, and one interception.
  • In 11 games for the Blue Devils, Jaylen Stinson has compiled one interception to go with 65 tackles, one sack, and one pass defended.
  • Chandler Rivers has posted 45 tackles and one interception in 11 games for the Blue Devils.
  • Dorian Mausi has totaled 55 tackles and one interception in eight games for the Blue Devils.

Troy vs. Duke Predictions and Pick

Troy vs. Duke betting card

  • Pick ATS:

    Duke (+6.5)

  • Pick OU: Over (44)

How to Bet on Troy vs. Duke

You can bet on Troy vs. Duke at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Troy vs. Duke picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our prediction to win this game is Troy, and we predict that Duke will cover the spread (Troy -6.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 44 points.

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WRITTEN BY

Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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