Toledo vs. Miami (OH) Prediction: Picks & Start Time – December 2, 2023

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Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan will host the No. 23 Toledo Rockets (11-1) as they take on the Miami (OH) RedHawks (10-2).

Toledo vs. Miami (OH) Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 6.5 points, with bookmakers listing Toledo as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Toledo has -252 odds to pick up the win, while Miami (OH) is listed at +202 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the total for the game is set at 43 points.

Game Info

How to Watch Toledo vs. Miami (OH) Live?

  • Game Day: Saturday, December 2, 2023
  • Game Time: 12:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Location: Detroit, Michigan
  • Stadium: Ford Field

Betting Preview

Toledo

Toledo is averaging 433.5 yards per game on offense (30th in the FBS), and ranks 32nd on defense, yielding 331.5 yards allowed per game. Toledo sports the 27th-ranked defense this season (20.4 points allowed per game), and has been more effective on the other side of the ball, ranking 20th-best with 35.3 points per game. Toledo owns the 76th-ranked offense this year in terms of passing yards (218.6 passing yards per game), and has been better on the other side of the ball, ranking 22nd-best with only 189.5 passing yards allowed per game. Toledo sports the 49th-ranked defense this year in terms of rushing yards (142.0 rushing yards allowed per game), and has been more effective on the other side of the ball, ranking seventh-best with 214.9 rushing yards per game. Toledo ranks 55th in third-down defense this season (37.2% third-down conversion rate allowed), but has been thriving on the other side of the ball, ranking 17th-best in the FBS with a 46.7% third-down percentage. With 15 forced turnovers (34th in the FBS) against 13 turnovers committed (72nd in the FBS), Toledo (+2) owns the 46th-ranked turnover margin in college football.

Miami (OH)

Miami (OH) has been excelling on defense, allowing only 323.2 total yards per contest (24th-best). On offense, it ranks 100th by putting up 335.2 total yards per game. Miami (OH)’s defense has been leading the charge for the team, as it ranks seventh-best in the FBS with 16.3 points allowed per contest. In terms of offense, it is accumulating 27.3 points per game, which ranks 67th. While Miami (OH)’s pass offense has been stuck in neutral, ranking 21st-worst with 180.3 passing yards per game, its defense ranks 23rd-best with just 190.9 passing yards surrendered per contest. In terms of rushing, Miami (OH) ranks 69th in the FBS on offense (154.9 rushing yards per game) and 37th defensively (132.3 rushing yards allowed per contest). Miami (OH)’s defense has been excelling on third down, allowing a 29.9% third-down conversion rate (11th-best). On offense, it ranks 81st in the FBS with a 37.3% third-down rate. Miami (OH) owns a +1 turnover margin this season, which ranks 57th in the FBS.

Toledo vs. Miami (OH) Betting Analysis

Toledo Betting Insights

Toledo has covered the spread six times in 12 games with a set spread. In games this season when favored by 6.5 points or more, Toledo has gone 4-6 against the spread. Toledo games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under seven times this season. The Rockets have been listed as the moneyline favorite a total of 10 times this season, and they’ve won each of those games. The Rockets have played nine times as a moneyline favorite with odds of -252 or shorter, and earned a victory in each game.

Miami (OH) Betting Insights

Miami (OH) has covered the spread nine times over 12 games with a set total. Miami (OH) has an ATS record of 2-1 when playing as at least 6.5-point underdogs. Miami (OH)’s games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under five times this year. The RedHawks have won two of the four games they’ve played as underdogs this season. This season, the RedHawks have won three of their four games when they’re the underdog by at least +202 on the moneyline.

Toledo vs. Miami (OH) Against The Spread & Betting Records

Toledo

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 50.9 51.8 49.9
Implied Total AVG 33.3 36.0 30.5
ATS Record 6-6-0 3-3-0 3-3-0
Over/Under Record 7-5-0 4-2-0 3-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 10-0 5-0 5-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-1 0-0 0-1

Miami (OH)

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 42.9 42.8 42.9
Implied Total AVG 27.5 29.0 26.4
ATS Record 9-3-0 4-1-0 5-2-0
Over/Under Record 5-7-0 1-4-0 4-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 7-0 3-0 4-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-2 0-1 2-1

Players to Watch

Toledo

  • In 12 games for the Rockets, DeQuan Finn has led the charge with 2,375 yards (197.9 yards per game) while putting up 21 touchdowns, eight interceptions and a 65.1% completion percentage.
  • In addition to the stats he’s put up through the air, Finn has also chipped in 530 rushing yards and six touchdowns in 12 games.
  • As part of the Rockets’ ground game, Peny Boone has run for 1,359 yards and 15 touchdowns on 7.4 YPC.
  • Boone has 13 receptions (1.1 per game) for 186 yards (15.5 per game) and one touchdown in 12 games for the Rockets.
  • Jerjuan Newton has been an integral part of the Rockets’ passing offense in 2023, registering 43 catches for 570 yards and nine touchdowns.
  • Jacquez Stuart has picked up 459 rushing yards (45.9 per game) with five rushing touchdowns in 10 games.
  • The pass-catching skills of Stuart have led to nine catches (on zero targets) for 118 yards and one touchdown.
  • Dallas Gant has hit the gridiron for 10 games, compiling one sack to go with one TFL, 74 tackles, and one interception for the Rockets.
  • With three interceptions to go with 52 tackles and three passes defended in seven games, Maxen Hook has been a big contributor to the Rockets’ defensive unit in 2023.
  • Daniel Bolden has helped spur the Rockets’ defense with 67 tackles and one TFL in 11 games.
  • Judge Culpepper has been a big part of the Rockets’ defense in 2023, with 27 tackles, five TFL, and seven sacks in 10 games.

Miami (OH)

  • Rashad Amos has rushed for 813 yards (67.8 per game) and 10 touchdowns in 12 games.
  • In nine games, Brett Gabbert has passed for 1,634 yards (181.6 per game), with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions, and a completion percentage of 59.0%.
  • On the ground, Gabbert has scored two touchdowns and picked up 140 yards.
  • In the passing game, Gage Larvadain has scored seven TDs, hauling in 37 balls for 642 yards (80.3 per game).
  • In 11 games, Kenny Tracy has rushed for 250 yards (22.7 per game) and two TDs.
  • Tracy also has 10 catches for 126 yards and one TD.
  • As a playmaker on defense, the RedHawks’ Matt Salopek has totaled 94 tackles, three TFL, three sacks, and one interception in 11 games.
  • The RedHawks’ Ty Wise has totaled seven sacks to go with three TFL, 81 tackles, and one interception in 10 games.
  • Brian Ugwu has been providing a big boost on defense, registering six sacks to go with two TFL and 50 tackles for the RedHawks.
  • Yahsyn McKee has delivered two interceptions to go with 46 tackles, one TFL, and four passes defended In 10 games for the RedHawks.

Toledo vs. Miami (OH) Predictions and Pick

Toledo vs. Miami (OH) betting card

  • Pick ATS:

    Miami (OH) (+6.5)

  • Pick OU: Over (43)

How to Bet on Toledo vs. Miami (OH)

You can bet on Toledo vs. Miami (OH) at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Toledo vs. Miami (OH) picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our prediction to win this game is Toledo, and we predict that Miami (OH) will cover the spread (Toledo -6.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 43 points.

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WRITTEN BY

Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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