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The Isleta New Mexico Bowl will see the New Mexico State Aggies battle the Fresno State Bulldogs.
New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Odds
Point Spread
The spread for this matchup is set at 3.5 points, with bookmakers listing New Mexico State as the favorites.
Moneyline
As for the moneyline, New Mexico State has -167 odds to pick up the win, while Fresno State is listed at +134 to claim victory.
Over/Under
Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 51.5 points.
Game Info
How to Watch New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Live?
- Game Day: Saturday, December 16, 2023
- Game Time: 5:45 PM ET
- TV Channel: ESPN
- Location: Albuquerque, New Mexico
- Stadium: University Stadium
Betting Preview
New Mexico State
Offensively, New Mexico State ranks 34th in the FBS with 427.6 yards per game. Meanwhile, its defense ranks 77th in total defense (387.6 yards allowed per contest). New Mexico State ranks 57th in scoring offense (28.7 points per game) and 36th in scoring defense (21.8 points allowed per game) this season. From an offensive standpoint, New Mexico State ranks 64th in the FBS with 224.9 passing yards per game. Meanwhile, the defense ranks 99th in passing yards allowed per contest (241.8). On offense, New Mexico State has been a top-25 unit in terms of rushing yards, ranking 13th-best in the FBS by putting up 202.7 per game. The Aggies rank 53rd on defense (145.9 rushing yards allowed per game). On offense, New Mexico State ranks 34th in the FBS with a 43.9% third-down percentage. Meanwhile, the team’s defense ranks 40th in third-down conversion rate allowed (145.9). New Mexico State has the 80th-ranked turnover margin in college football at -2, forcing nine turnovers (111th in the FBS) while turning it over 11 times (40th in the FBS).
Fresno State
From an offensive perspective, Fresno State is compiling 379.1 total yards per contest (73rd-ranked). It ranks 75th in the FBS on the other side of the ball (386.2 total yards given up per game). Fresno State ranks 50th in the FBS with 29.9 points per contest on offense, and it ranks 56th with 24.6 points ceded per contest on defense. With 272.3 passing yards per game on offense, Fresno State ranks 28th in the FBS. Defensively, it ranks 54th, surrendering 216.9 passing yards per game. Fresno State’s rushing offense has been bottom-25 this season, compiling 106.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks 15th-worst in the FBS. Defensively, it ranks 99th with 169.3 rushing yards conceded per contest. Fresno State’s third-down offense has been excelling, posting a 47.1% third-down conversion percentage (13th-best) this season. Defensively, it ranks 78th by giving up a 39.9% third-down rate. Fresno State has excelled in terms of turnovers, as the team’s turnover margin of +9 ranks sixth-best in the FBS, with 20 forced turnovers (fifth in the nation) and 11 turnovers committed (40th in the nation).
New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Betting Analysis
New Mexico State Betting Insights
New Mexico State has covered the spread in a game 11 times this season (11-3-0). New Mexico State is 3-1 ATS when playing as at least 3.5-point favorites. New Mexico State games have gone over the total five times this season. The Aggies have won 83.3% of the games this season when they were favored on the moneyline (5-1). The Aggies have a 0-1 record (winning 75% of their games) when playing as a moneyline favorite of -167 or shorter.
Fresno State Betting Insights
Fresno State is 4-8-0 against the spread this season. In games it has played as 3.5-point underdogs or more, Fresno State has a perfect ATS record of 1-0. Fresno State games have gone over the total eight times this season. The Bulldogs have split the two games they’ve played as underdogs this season. The Bulldogs have been at least a +134 moneyline underdog two times this season and won each of those games.
New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Against The Spread & Betting Records
New Mexico State
| Overall | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Point Total AVG | 51.2 | 49.0 | 52.9 |
| Implied Total AVG | 29.4 | 28.2 | 30.4 |
| ATS Record | 11-3-0 | 5-1-0 | 6-2-0 |
| Over/Under Record | 5-9-0 | 3-3-0 | 2-6-0 |
| Moneyline Favorite Record | 5-1 | 4-1 | 1-0 |
| Moneyline Underdog Record | 5-3 | 1-0 | 4-3 |
Fresno State
| Overall | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Point Total AVG | 51.9 | 55.2 | 48.6 |
| Implied Total AVG | 32.1 | 37.3 | 26.8 |
| ATS Record | 4-8-0 | 2-4-0 | 2-4-0 |
| Over/Under Record | 8-4-0 | 3-3-0 | 5-1-0 |
| Moneyline Favorite Record | 6-3 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Moneyline Underdog Record | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 |
Players to Watch
New Mexico State
- In addition to his 2,915 passing yards and 61.6% completion percentage this season, Diego Pavia has connected on 26 touchdowns against eight interceptions.
- Pavia has been generating offense with his legs, as he’s rushed for 862 yards (5.5 YPC) and six rushing touchdowns in 14 games.
- As a runner, Star Thomas has generated 643 rushing yards with four rushing touchdowns in 14 games.
- As a receiver, Thomas has tallied 21 catches on zero targets for 194 yards and two touchdowns.
- Trent Hudson has been a key piece of the Aggies’ air attack in 2023, tallying 34 catches for 545 yards and 10 touchdowns.
- As an important contributor in the Aggies’ passing offense, Jonathan Brady has piled up 613 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 37 receptions.
- As part of the Aggies’ defense, Keyshaun Elliott has totaled 91 tackles, five TFL, and two sacks in 13 games.
- Myles Rowser has helped spur the Aggies’ defense with 60 tackles and one interception in 13 games.
- The Aggies’ defense has been aided by Jordan Vincent, who has played 12 games and delivered 59 tackles, two TFL, two sacks, and one pass defended.
- Mehki Miller has been a big contributor to the Aggies’ defense in 2023, with one interception to go with 46 tackles, one TFL, and two passes defended in nine games.
Fresno State
- In 11 games, Malik Sherrod has run for 877 yards (79.7 per game) and nine touchdowns.
- Also, Sherrod has 35 catches for 181 yards and one touchdown.
- In 12 games, Mikey Keene has passed for 2,590 yards (215.8 per game), with 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions, and a completion percentage of 65.8%.
- Erik Brooks has 53 catches for 686 yards (57.2 per game) and five touchdowns in 12 games.
- In the passing game, Jalen Moss has scored five TDs, hauling in 51 balls for 624 yards (52.0 per game).
- Levelle Bailey has been causing chaos on defense, recording three interceptions to go with 65 tackles, one TFL, one sack, and three passes defended for the Bulldogs.
- Dean Clark has been causing chaos on defense, collecting two interceptions to go with 67 tackles and two passes defended for the Bulldogs.
- The Bulldogs’ Morice Norris has compiled two interceptions to go with 47 tackles, five TFL, three sacks, and two passes defended in 11 games.
- With 66 tackles, one TFL, and one sack in 11 games, Malachi Langley has been making a big difference on defense for the Bulldogs.
New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Predictions and Pick
New Mexico State vs. Fresno State betting card
- Pick ATS:
Fresno State (+3.5)
- Pick OU: Under (51.5)
How to Bet on New Mexico State vs. Fresno State
You can bet on New Mexico State vs. Fresno State at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.
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Our prediction to win this matchup is New Mexico State, and we project that Fresno State will cover the spread (New Mexico State -3.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 51.5 points.