Air Force vs. James Madison Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Prediction: Picks & Start Time – December 23, 2023

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The Air Force Falcons will meet the James Madison Dukes in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl.

Air Force vs. James Madison Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 2.5 points, with oddsmakers listing Air Force as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, Air Force has -131 odds to pick up the win, while James Madison is listed at +108 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 44 points.

Game Info

How to Watch Air Force vs. James Madison Live?

  • Game Day: Saturday, December 23, 2023
  • Game Time: 3:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ABC
  • Location: Fort Worth, Texas
  • Stadium: Amon G. Carter Stadium

Betting Preview

Air Force

Air Force ranks 81st in total offense this year (365.5 yards per game), but has been shining on defense, ranking seventh-best in the FBS with 365.5 yards allowed per game. On defense, Air Force has been a top-25 unit, ranking 14th-best by allowing just 17.9 points per game. The offense ranks 64th (27.6 points per game). Air Force owns the 12th-best pass defense this season (181.0 passing yards allowed per game), but ranks worst offensively (88.3 passing yards per game). Air Force has been making things happen on both sides of the ball in the running game this year, ranking second-best in rushing offense (277.2 rushing yards per game) and 12th-best in rushing defense (98.2 rushing yards allowed per game). Air Force ranks 33rd in third-down defense this year (35.1% third-down conversion rate allowed), but has been shining on offense, ranking 19th-best in the FBS with a 45.8% third-down conversion rate. Air Force has forced 11 total turnovers (87th in the FBS) this season and have turned it over eight times (16th in the FBS) for +3a turnover margin of +3, 39th-ranked in college football.

James Madison

With 431.3 total yards per game on offense, James Madison ranks 28th in the FBS in 2023. On defense, it ranks 29th, allowing 330.3 total yards per game. James Madison has been productive on both sides of the ball this season, ranking 18th-best in points per game (35.2) and 18th-best in points surrendered per game (18.5). James Madison ranks 10th-worst in passing yards allowed per game (267.0), but at least it has been surging on offense, ranking 18th-best in passing yards per game (288.2). James Madison ranks 87th in the FBS with 143.2 rushing yards per contest, but it has been carried by its defense, which ranks best by surrendering only 63.3 rushing yards per game. From an offensive standpoint, James Madison is posting a 36.6% third-down conversion percentage (89th-ranked). It ranks 33rd in the FBS on defense (35.1% third-down rate allowed). At +1, James Madison sports the 56th-ranked turnover margin in the FBS, with 14 forced turnovers (43rd in the FBS) and 13 turnovers committed (70th in the FBS).

Air Force vs. James Madison Betting Analysis

Air Force Betting Insights

Air Force has gone 4-7-1 against the spread this season. In games it is played as 2.5-point favorites or more, Air Force has an ATS record of 4-6-1. Games involving Air Force have hit the over six times this season. The Falcons have won seven of the 10 games they were favored on the moneyline this season (70%). When playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -131 or shorter, the Falcons have gone 5-2 (70%).

James Madison Betting Insights

James Madison has covered the spread eight times this year (8-4-0). James Madison is a perfect 1-0 ATS when playing as at least 2.5-point underdogs. James Madison games have gone over the total seven times this year. The Dukes won the only game they’ve played as the underdog this season. The Dukes have entered two games this season as the underdog by +108 or more and won each of those games.

Air Force vs. James Madison Against The Spread & Betting Records

Air Force

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 43.4 44.3 42.5
Implied Total AVG 29.1 30.8 27.3
ATS Record 4-7-1 2-4-0 2-3-1
Over/Under Record 6-6-0 4-2-0 2-4-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 7-3 3-2 4-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-1 0-0 0-1

James Madison

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 50.6 52.5 48.7
Implied Total AVG 30.9 35.0 26.8
ATS Record 8-4-0 3-3-0 5-1-0
Over/Under Record 7-5-0 3-3-0 4-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 9-1 4-1 5-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-0 0-0 1-0

Players to Watch

Air Force

  • To go along with his 744 passing yards and 59.7% completion percentage this season, Zachary Larrier has thrown for six touchdowns against two interceptions.
  • Larrier has made an impact with his legs, running for 579 yards and five TDs in 10 games.
  • As a runner, Emmanuel Michel has picked up 747 yards in the ground game with nine rushing touchdowns in 10 games.
  • John Lee Eldridge III has scampered for 518 rushing yards (43.2 yards per game) and six touchdowns while averaging 6.7 yards per carry in 12 games for the Falcons.
  • As a pass-catcher, Eldridge III has reeled in six balls on zero targets for 42 yards and one touchdown.
  • In 10 games for the Falcons, Owen Burk has accumulated 427 rushing yards (5.5 yards per carry) and three touchdowns.
  • With two sacks to go with four TFL, 66 tackles, and one interception in 10 games, Alec Mock has been an important contributor to the Falcons’ defense in 2023.
  • With three interceptions to go with 61 tackles, three TFL, and three passes defended in 11 games, Trey Taylor has been a significant contributor to the Falcons’ defensive unit in 2023.
  • Johnathan Youngblood has helped spur the Falcons’ defense with two interceptions to go along with 71 tackles and two passes defended in 11 games.
  • Jayden Goodwin, as part of the Falcons’ defense, has posted one sack to go with 60 tackles and one interception in 12 games.

James Madison

  • Jordan McCloud has 32 touchdown passes and nine interceptions in 12 games, completing 68.9% of his throws for 3,413 yards (284.4 per game).
  • On the ground, McCloud has scored eight touchdowns and picked up 311 yards.
  • In the passing game, Elijah Sarratt has scored eight TDs, hauling in 74 balls for 1,076 yards (89.7 per game).
  • Reggie Brown has 51 receptions for 1,010 yards (84.2 per game) and nine touchdowns in 12 games.
  • On the ground, Ty Son Lawton has scored five touchdowns and accumulated 568 yards (47.3 per game).
  • Son Lawton also has 19 receptions for 174 yards and one TD.
  • Jalen Green has registered one interception to go with 46 tackles, 11 TFL, 13 sacks, and one pass defended in nine games for the Dukes.
  • In 12 games for the Dukes, Aiden Fisher has collected one interception to go with 89 tackles, two TFL, one sack, and one pass defended.
  • Mikail Kamara has seven sacks to go with nine TFL and 45 tackles in 12 games.
  • Jamree Kromah has totaled seven sacks to go with six TFL and 48 tackles in 12 games for the Dukes.

Air Force vs. James Madison Predictions and Pick

Air Force vs. James Madison betting card

  • Pick ATS:

    James Madison (+2.5)

  • Pick OU: Over (44)

How to Bet on Air Force vs. James Madison

You can bet on Air Force vs. James Madison at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Air Force vs. James Madison picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our pick to win this matchup is James Madison, and we project that James Madison will cover the spread (Air Force -2.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 44 points.

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Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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