Florida vs LSU Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – Saturday, March 4, 2023

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The LSU Tigers (13-17, 2-15 SEC) hope to break an eight-game road losing skid at the Florida Gators (15-15, 8-9 SEC) on Saturday, March 4, 2023 at 6:00 PM ET.

The Gators face the Tigers in a game that Florida is currently a healthy favorite by 7.5 points. The over/under is 144.5 points for the game.

Florida vs. LSU Odds

Point Spread for Florida vs. LSU

The spread for this matchup is set at 7.5 points, with sportsbooks listing Florida as the favorite.

Florida vs. LSU Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Florida has -342 odds to pick up the win, while LSU is listed at +268 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 144.5 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Saturday, March 4, 2023
  • Game Time: 6:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: SEC Network
  • Location: Gainesville, Florida
  • Arena: Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O’Connell Center

Florida vs. LSU Betting Trends

Florida has 14 wins against the spread in 30 games this year. The Gators have won in 12, or 70.6%, of the 17 contests they have been named as odds-on favorites in this year. Florida’s games this year have gone over the point total 46.7% of the time (14 out of 30 games with a set point total).

In LSU’s 30 games this year, it has nine wins against the spread. The Tigers have won 15.8% of the games this season they were the moneyline underdog (3-16). LSU’s games this season have hit the over on 13 of 30 set point totals (43.3%).

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Florida vs. LSU Key Players to Watch


Colin Castleton leads his squad in both points (16) and rebounds (7.7) per contest, and also posts 2.7 assists. Defensively, he averages 0.9 steals and 3 blocked shots (third in the country). Will Richard averages 10.5 points, 4.4 rebounds and 0.8 assists per contest. Defensively, he averages 0.8 steals and 0.6 blocked shots. Kyle Lofton is tops on his team in assists per game (3.4), and also posts 8.8 points and 2.9 rebounds. At the other end, he delivers 1.1 steals and 0.1 blocked shots. Riley Kugel is posting 9.3 points, 1 assists and 2.8 rebounds per game.


K.J. Williams is the Tigers’ top scorer (17.3 points per game) and rebounder (7.5), and delivers 0.8 assists. The Tigers get 7.9 points, 5.3 rebounds and 0.9 assists per game from Derek Fountain. Adam Miller is posting 11.9 points, 2.3 rebounds and 1.7 assists per contest, making 34.3% of his shots from the field and 31.7% from 3-point range, with 2.3 triples per contest. Cam Hayes is putting up 8 points, 2.5 rebounds and 2.4 assists per contest, making 40.8% of his shots from the field and 34.3% from 3-point range, with 1.2 triples per game.

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What you need to know about the Florida Gators

So far this season, nine out of Florida’s 17 SEC games have hit the over. The Gators rank 181st in the nation with 71.8 points per game so far this season. At the other end of the court, they rank 134th with 68.7 points allowed per game. Florida ranks 163rd in the nation with 32 rebounds per contest, but it is giving up 34.4 rebounds per game, which ranks 17th-worst in college basketball.

Offensively, the Gators have performed better in home games this year, posting 77.6 points per game, compared to 64.9 per game in away games. With 6.6 treys per game, Florida is 266th in the country. It has a 32.1% shooting percentage from beyond the arc, which ranks 300th in college basketball. This year, the Gators are ceding 6 threes per game (34th-ranked in college basketball) and are allowing opponents to shoot 32.1% (78th-ranked) from three-point land.

The Gators are 3-7 against the spread and 3-7 overall in their past 10 contests. Seven of Florida’s past 10 contests have gone over the total. In its last 10 games, Florida has been putting up 70 points per contest, an average that’s slightly lower than the 71.8 it has scored over the course of the 2022-23 season. The past 10 games have seen Florida allow 7.3 more points per game (76) than its season-long average (68.7).

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What you need to know about the LSU Tigers

LSU and its opponents have combined to hit the over eight out of 17 times this season in SEC play. Offensively the Tigers are the 287th-ranked team in the nation (67.5 points per game). On defense they are 189th (70.4 points allowed per game). At 30.8 rebounds per game and 31.2 rebounds allowed, LSU is 241st and 191st in the country, respectively.

At home the Tigers are scoring 69.3 points per game, 7.4 more than they are averaging on the road (61.9). With 7.5 made 3-pointers per game and shooting 33.7% from downtown, LSU is 175th and 214th in the country, respectively, in those categories. The Tigers give up 8.1 3-pointers per game and concede 34.3% from beyond the arc, ranking 283rd and 212th, respectively, in the country.

The Tigers have a 3-6-1 record against the spread while finishing 1-9 overall over their past 10 contests. In its past 10 games, LSU has hit the over six times. LSU has performed better offensively in its previous 10 games, tallying 69.4 points per contest, 1.9 more than its season average of 67.5. The Tigers are surrendering 76.7 points per contest in their past 10 games, which is 6.3 more points than they are allowing for the season (70.4).

Florida vs. LSU Prediction & Pick

Our prediction to win this game is Florida, and we project that Florida will cover the spread (Florida -7.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 144.5 points.

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How to bet Florida vs. LSU

You can bet on Florida vs. LSU at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Florida vs. LSU picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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