Arkansas vs Mississippi State Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – Saturday, February 11, 2023

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The Arkansas Razorbacks (17-7, 6-6 SEC) carry a three-game winning streak into a home matchup against the Mississippi State Bulldogs (16-8, 5-7 SEC), winners of four straight. It starts at 6:00 PM ET (on ESPNU) on Saturday, February 11, 2023.

The Razorbacks are currently strong 6.5-point favorites against the Bulldogs. The game’s point total is 128.5.

Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Odds

Point Spread for Arkansas vs. Mississippi State

The spread for this matchup is set at 6.5 points, with bookmakers listing Arkansas as the favorite.

Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Arkansas has -282 odds to pick up the win, while Mississippi State is listed at +231 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 128.5 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Saturday, February 11, 2023
  • Game Time: 6:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPNU
  • Location: Fayetteville, Arkansas
  • Arena: Bud Walton Arena

Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Betting Trends

In the Arkansas’ 24 games this season, it has 12 wins against the spread. The Razorbacks have been favorites in 19 games this season and have come away with the win 15 times (78.9%) in those contests. Arkansas’ games this year have eclipsed the over/under eight times in 24 opportunities (33.3%).

Mississippi State is 12-12-0 against the spread this year. The Bulldogs have been the moneyline underdog six total times this season. They’ve finished 1-5 in those games. Mississippi State’s games this season have gone over the point total 25% of the time (six out of 24 games with a set point total).

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Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Key Players to Watch


Anthony Black puts up a team-best 4.1 assists per contest. He is also putting up 12.8 points and 5.3 rebounds, shooting 45.2% from the floor. Ricky Council IV is tops on the Razorbacks at 17.1 points per game, while also posting 2.5 assists and 3.2 rebounds. Davonte Davis averages 11.2 points, 4.1 rebounds and 3 assists per game. At the other end, he delivers 1.4 steals and 0.1 blocked shots.
Makhi Mitchell leads the Razorbacks at 5.7 rebounds per game, while also averaging 1 assists and 7.1 points.

Mississippi State

Tolu Smith leads the Bulldogs in scoring (14.7 points per game) and rebounding (8.3), and posts 1.8 assists. He also delivers 0.5 steals and 0.8 blocked shots. D.J. Jeffries gives the Bulldogs 9.2 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game. He also delivers 1.3 steals and 0.5 blocked shots. Cameron Matthews gets the Bulldogs 6.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2.1 assists per contest. He also averages 1.7 steals and 0.8 blocked shots. Shakeel Moore gives the Bulldogs 9 points, 3 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game. He also posts 2.1 steals and 0.2 blocked shots.

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What you need to know about the Arkansas Razorbacks

In Arkansas’ 11 SEC games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total four times. With 75 points per game on offense, the Razorbacks rank 103rd in the nation. At the other end of the court, they give up 65.5 points per contest, which ranks 60th in college basketball. Arkansas is 132nd in the country with 32.8 boards per game so far this season. Meanwhile, it ranks 44th with 28.4 rebounds allowed per game.

In home games, the Razorbacks are scoring 4.4 more points per game (74.8) than they are in road games (70.4). While Arkansas is in the bottom 25 in the country in threes per game with 4.9 (seventh-worst), it ranks 327th in college basketball with a 31% three-point percentage. The Razorbacks are allowing opponents to put up a 31.4% three-point percentage this year (59th-ranked in college basketball), but they’ve thrived by giving up just 5.4 treys per game (11th-best).

The Razorbacks have gone 5-5 over their last 10 contests, with a 5-5 record against the spread in that span. Four of Arkansas’ past 10 games have hit the over. Arkansas’ offense has been worse over its last 10 games, scoring 71.5 points a contest compared to the 75 it has averaged this year. Arkansas has been slightly suspect on the defensive end of the floor of late, giving up 70.2 points per game over its last 10 contests compared to the 65.5 it has surrendered this year.

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What you need to know about the Mississippi State Bulldogs

Mississippi State and its opponents have combined to go over the point total four out of 11 times this season in SEC action. In 2022-23, the Bulldogs are 326th in college basketball on offense (65.5 points scored per game) and fourth-best on defense (58.5 points conceded). In 2022-23, Mississippi State is 31st in the nation in rebounds (35.4 per game) and 129th in rebounds allowed (30.3).

At home the Bulldogs are scoring 69.5 points per game, 8.8 more than they are averaging away (60.7). Beyond the arc, Mississippi State is 328th in the country in 3-pointers made per game (5.7). It is 0-worst in 3-point percentage at 27.9%. In 2022-23, the Bulldogs are 195th in the nation in 3-pointers conceded (7.3 per game) and 40th in defensive 3-point percentage (30.9%).

The Bulldogs have gone 5-5 over their past 10 games, with a 7-3 record against the spread in that span. In its past 10 games, Mississippi State has gone over the total three times. In its previous 10 games, Mississippi State is scoring 63.2 points per game, compared to its season average of 65.5. The Bulldogs are giving up 60.8 points per game over their last 10 games, which is 2.3 more points than they are allowing for the season (58.5).

Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Prediction & Pick

Our pick to win this game is Arkansas, and we project that Arkansas will cover the spread (Arkansas -6.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 128.5 points.

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How to bet Arkansas vs. Mississippi State

You can bet on Arkansas vs. Mississippi State at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Arkansas vs. Mississippi State picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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