Steelers vs Bills Prediction: Odds, Picks & Betting Preview Week 5 – October 2022

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When the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3) visit the Buffalo Bills (3-1) on Sunday, October 9, 2022 at Highmark Stadium, they will aim to squash a three-game losing streak.

Bills vs. Steelers Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 14 points, with oddsmakers listing the Bills as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Bills have -800 odds to pick up the win, while the Steelers are listed at +575 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 45.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Bills vs. Steelers Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, October 9, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Orchard Park, New York
  • Stadium: Highmark Stadium

Betting Preview


The Bills have been clicking on all fronts this year, as they rank third-best in total offense (412.5 yards per game) and best in total defense (234.5 yards allowed per game). The Bills have been making things happen on both sides of the ball this year, as they rank fifth-best in scoring offense (28.5 points per game) and second-best in scoring defense (14.5 points allowed per game).

The Bills have been a difficult matchup for opposing teams in the passing game, as they rank top-five in both passing offense (second-best with 297.0 passing yards per game) and passing defense (best with 150.8 passing yards allowed per game) this year. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bills have been a top-five unit in terms of rushing yards, ranking third-best by giving up only 83.8 per game. They rank 12th on offense (115.5 rushing yards per game).

The Bills rank 19th in third-down defense this year (41.3% third-down conversion rate allowed), but they’ve been thriving on offense, ranking best in the NFL with a 55.8% third-down percentage. This season, the Bills are gaining 6.0 yards per play on offense (sixth in the league), while featuring the second-best yards per play on defense in the NFL (4.2). With nine forced turnovers (third in NFL) against seven turnovers committed (22nd in NFL), the Bills (+2) have the sixth-ranked turnover margin in the NFL.


The Steelers have been sputtering on offense, ranking third-worst with 278.8 total yards per game. They have been more effective on the other side of the ball, giving up 383.0 total yards per contest (24th-ranked). The Steelers rank 23rd in the NFL with 18.5 points per game on offense, and they rank 15th with 22.5 points given up per contest on the defensive side of the ball.

The Steelers’ passing offense has been bottom-five this season, putting up 181.5 passing yards per game, which ranks fifth-worst in the NFL. On defense, they rank 21st with 251.5 passing yards surrendered per contest. From an offensive perspective, the Steelers are putting up 97.3 rushing yards per contest (23rd-ranked). They rank 24th in the NFL on defense (131.5 rushing yards given up per game).

In terms of third-down efficiency, the Steelers rank 19th in the NFL (37.3% third-down conversion rate) and 26th on defense (45.3% third-down rate allowed). The Steelers’ offense has been bottom-five in yards per play this season, posting 4.8, which ranks fifth-worst in the NFL. On the defensive side of the ball, they rank 11th, surrendering 5.1 yards per play. With eight forced turnovers (sixth in NFL) and seven turnovers committed (22nd in NFL) this season, the Steelers rank eighth in the NFL with a turnover margin of +1.

Bills vs. Steelers Injury Report


Player Pos. Injury Status
Jordan Poyer FB Undisclosed Out
Jake Kumerow WR Ankle Out
Dawson Knox TE Foot Out
Christian Benford CB Hand Out
Tremaine Edmunds LB Hamstring Questionable
Jamison Crowder WR Ankle Out
Jordan Phillips DT Hamstring Questionable
Isaiah McKenzie WR Concussion Questionable
Ed Oliver DT Ankle Questionable


Player Pos. Injury Status
Terrell Edmunds FB Concussion Out
Ahkello Witherspoon CB Hamstring Out
Calvin Austin III WR Foot Questionable
Cameron Sutton CB Groin Questionable

Bills vs. Steelers Betting Analysis

Bills Betting Insights

The Bills have gone 2-2-0 against the spread this season.

This season, Bills games have hit the over once. The Bills were the moneyline favorite 14 total times last season. They went 9-5 in those games.

When playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -800 or shorter, the Bills had a record of 5-1 (83.3%).

Steelers Betting Insights

The Steelers have covered the spread in a matchup one time this year (1-2-1).

Steelers games have gone over the total twice this year. The Steelers have been underdogs in three games this season and won one (33.3%) of those contests.

The Steelers have not entered a game this season with longer moneyline odds than +575.

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Bills vs. Steelers Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 51.1 47.5 52.3
Implied Total AVG 28.0 29.0 27.7
ATS Record 2-2-0 1-0-0 1-2-0
Over/Under Record 1-3-0 1-0-0 0-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 3-1 1-0 2-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 40.9 40.5 41.3
Implied Total AVG 22.8 22.0 23.5
ATS Record 1-2-1 0-1-1 1-1-0
Over/Under Record 2-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 0-1 0-1 0-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-2 0-1 1-1

Players to Watch


  • Josh Allen ranks fourth in the NFL with 1,227 passing yards through four games this year, averaging 306.8 per game with a 67.3% completion percentage and 10 touchdowns (fourth in the NFL) against three interceptions.
  • To go along with his passing stats, Allen has 183 rushing yards (first on the Bills), with two rushing touchdowns.
  • Stefon Diggs has caught 31 passes (second in the NFL) on 40 targets for 406 total yards (third in the NFL) and four touchdowns. He is averaging 7.8 catches and 101.5 yards per game through four games.
  • Through four games played, Isaiah McKenzie is averaging 38.3 yards and 3.8 receptions per game to total 153 receiving yards and 15 catches. He’s been targeted 21 times, and has three receiving touchdowns (third in the NFL).
  • In the running game, Devin Singletary averages 3.8 yards per attempt (39th in the NFL) and 32.3 yards per game for 129 total rushing yards. He’s still looking to score his first rushing TD of the season.
  • Singletary has been targeted 22 times and turned those targets into 17 receptions, 141 yards and one TD.
  • On the defensive side, Matt Milano has one interception to go with 27 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and three passes defended in 2022.
  • Gregory Rousseau has 15 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and 4.0 sacks so far this season.
  • Tremaine Edmunds has collected 26 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and one pass defended.
  • This season, Jordan Poyer has 12 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and four interceptions.


  • Mitchell Trubisky has thrown for 653 yards this year, with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He is completing 59.5% of his passes while averaging 163.3 yards per game and 5.6 per attempt.
  • On the ground, Trubisky has added one rushing touchdown and 24 rushing yards (fourth on the Steelers).
  • Najee Harris has 202 rushing yards (leading the Steelers) and one rushing touchdown, while averaging 50.5 yards per game and 3.5 per attempt (47th in the NFL).
  • Harris has also picked up 48 receiving yards (12.0 per game) on 10 catches (2.5 per game). He’s been targeted 11 times and has caught one touchdown pass.
  • Pat Freiermuth has totaled 223 receiving yards and one touchdown on 18 receptions, while being targeted 30 times on the season.
  • Diontae Johnson has 207 receiving yards from 23 receptions after getting 37 targets.
  • Alex Highsmith has put up 5.5 sacks (first on the Steelers and second in the NFL) to go with 4.0 TFL and 24 tackles over four games so far in 2022.
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick has totaled 32 tackles and three interceptions over four games.
  • In the 2022 season, Myles Jack has 43 tackles through four games.
  • Cameron Sutton’s stats include two interceptions (fifth in the NFL) as well as 12 tackles and five passes defended in four games

Bills vs. Steelers Predictions and Pick

Our pick to win this matchup is the Bills, and we predict that Bills will cover the spread (Bills -14). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 45.5 points.

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How to Bet on Bills vs. Steelers

You can bet on Bills vs. Steelers at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Bills vs. Steelers picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Luis Escalante

Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014 and is currently the Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. Luis comes from an analytics background, leveraging his data skills with multiple years of experience in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting.

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