Buccaneers vs. Panthers Prediction: Week 17 Odds, Picks & Moneyline – January 1, 2023

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Two NFC South opponents clash on Sunday, January 1, 2023 at Raymond James Stadium when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8) and the Carolina Panthers (6-9) go toe to toe.

Buccaneers vs. Panthers Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3 points, with sportsbooks listing the Buccaneers as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Buccaneers have -175 odds to pick up the win, while the Panthers are listed at +150 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 40.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Buccaneers vs. Panthers Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, January 1, 2023
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: FOX
  • Location: Tampa, Florida
  • Stadium: Raymond James Stadium

Betting Preview


On offense, the Buccaneers rank 15th in the NFL with 346.3 yards per game. Meanwhile, they rank sixth in total defense (315.4 yards allowed per contest). While the Buccaneers’ defense ranks seventh with 20.3 points allowed per game, they’ve been a little less successful on offense, ranking fifth-worst (17.7 points per game).

The Buccaneers have been a difficult matchup for opposing teams in the passing game, as they rank top-five in both passing offense (fourth-best with 269.3 passing yards per game) and passing defense (fourth-best with 195.0 passing yards allowed per game) this year. The Buccaneers rank worst in rushing offense (77.0 rushing yards per game), but they’ve been better on defense, ranking 17th with 120.4 rushing yards allowed per contest.

The Buccaneers rank 21st in third-down efficiency (37.6%) on offense and sixth in third-down conversion rate allowed (36.7%) on defense this season. The Buccaneers are putting up 5.0 yards per play on offense (25th in the league), while featuring the fifth-best yards per play on defense in the NFL (5.0) this season. With 16 forced turnovers (22nd in NFL) against 20 turnovers committed (19th in NFL), the Buccaneers’ -4 turnover margin ranks 26th in the NFL.

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The Panthers rank fourth-worst in total yards per game (306.9), but they’ve been better defensively, ranking 20th in the NFL with 344.7 total yards surrendered per contest. From an offensive perspective, the Panthers are generating 20.9 points per contest (18th-ranked). They rank 19th in the NFL defensively (22.5 points surrendered per game).

The Panthers’ passing offense has been bottom-five this season, registering 175.9 passing yards per game, which ranks fourth-worst in the NFL. On the defensive side of the ball, they rank 18th with 219.7 passing yards allowed per contest. The Panthers rank 10th in the NFL with 131.0 rushing yards per contest on offense, and they rank 21st with 125.0 rushing yards given up per game on defense.

The Panthers rank second-worst in third-down conversion rate (29.4%), but they’ve been better defensively, ranking 27th in the NFL with a 42.9% third-down rate allowed. From an offensive standpoint, the Panthers are posting 5.4 yards per play (15th-ranked). They rank 12th in the NFL on the other side of the ball (5.3 yards surrendered per play). With 15 forced turnovers (29th in NFL) and 16 turnovers committed (third in NFL) this season, the Panthers rank 17th in the NFL with a turnover margin of -1.

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Buccaneers vs. Panthers Injury Report


Player Pos. Injury Status
Julio Jones WR Knee Questionable
Cade Otton TE Quad Probable
Carlton Davis CB Shoulder Questionable
Jamel Dean CB Toe Questionable
Anthony Nelson OLB Illness Probable
Carl Nassib OLB Pectoral Questionable
Tristan Wirfs OT Ankle Questionable
Donovan Smith OT Foot Questionable
Josh Wells OT Knee Out
Ryan Jensen C Knee Questionable


Player Pos. Injury Status
Shi Smith WR Foot Probable
Stephen Sullivan TE Ankle Questionable
Jaycee Horn CB Wrist Out
Tommy Tremble TE Hip Questionable
Marquis Haynes DE Ankle Questionable
Shaq Thompson LB Hamstring Questionable

Buccaneers vs. Panthers Betting Analysis

Buccaneers Betting Insights

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The Buccaneers have put together a 3-11-1 record against the spread this season. The Buccaneers are 1-6-1 ATS when playing as at least 3-point favorites.

Buccaneers games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under four times this season. The Buccaneers won 13 of the 17 games they were the moneyline favorite last season (76.5%).

When playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -175 or shorter, the Buccaneers had an 11-3 record (winning 78.6% of their games).

Panthers Betting Insights

The Panthers have gone 8-7-0 against the spread this year. The Panthers are 4-3 ATS when playing as at least 3-point underdogs.

Games involving Panthers have hit the over seven times this year. The Panthers have entered the game as underdogs 11 times this season and won six, or 54.5%, of those games.

The Panthers have entered seven games this season as the underdog by +150 or more and are 2-5 in those contests.

Buccaneers vs. Panthers Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 43.8 44.7 42.9
Implied Total AVG 24.4 24.3 24.6
ATS Record 3-11-1 1-6-1 2-5-0
Over/Under Record 4-11-0 3-5-0 1-6-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 7-6 4-3 3-3
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-2 0-1 0-1


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 41.2 40.5 42.3
Implied Total AVG 22.9 21.9 24.5
ATS Record 8-7-0 5-4-0 3-3-0
Over/Under Record 7-8-0 4-5-0 3-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 0-4 0-3 0-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 6-5 5-1 1-4

Players to Watch


  • Tom Brady has passed for 4,178 yards (fourth in the NFL), 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions this year. He averages 278.5 yards per game and 6.2 per attempt, while completing 66.0% of his passes.
  • Leonard Fournette has recorded 640 rushing yards with three touchdowns (45.7 yards per game across 14 games). His 3.6 yards per attempt rank 44th in the league.
  • Fournette’s 78 targets as part of the passing attack have turned into 68 catches (4.9 per game) for 500 yards (35.7 per game) and three touchdowns.
  • In 14 games played, Mike Evans is averaging 65.5 yards and 4.8 receptions per game on the way to 917 receiving yards and 67 catches. He’s been targeted 116 times, and has three receiving touchdowns.
  • Chris Godwin averages 6.8 receptions and 65.2 yards per game, and has 848 total receiving yards and 89 catches (ninth in the NFL). He’s gotten 126 total targets, and has caught three touchdown passes.
  • On defense for the Buccaneers, Devin White has powered the unit with 115 tackles, 6.0 TFL, and 5.5 sacks in 2022.
  • Lavonte David has 112 tackles, 7.0 TFL, 3.0 sacks, and five passes defended.
  • Keanu Neal has totaled 60 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 0.5 sacks, and one interception this year.
  • Anthony Nelson has 36 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and 4.5 sacks.


  • D’Onta Foreman has rushed for five touchdowns this year, and has racked up 811 total rushing yards (54.1 per game and 4.6 per attempt).
  • D.J. Moore has 761 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 56 receptions, while being targeted 104 times.
  • Sam Darnold has thrown for 759 yards this year, four touchdowns and zero interceptions. He is completing 61.4% of his passes while averaging 189.8 yards per game and 8.6 per attempt.
  • Darnold has also rushed for two touchdowns and 54 yards (fifth on the Panthers).
  • Chuba Hubbard has scored two touchdowns on the ground, while running for 385 total yards (5.4 per attempt and 29.6 per game).
  • Frankie Luvu has intercepted one pass to go with 91 tackles, 14.0 TFL, 6.0 sacks, and three passes defended in 2022.
  • Brian Burns’ stats include 60 tackles, 16.0 TFL, 12.5 sacks, and three passes defended.
  • Over the 2022 campaign, Xavier Woods has 75 tackles through 13 games.
  • Derrick Brown has totaled 1.0 sack as well as 5.0 TFL, 57 tackles, and one interception.

Buccaneers vs. Panthers Predictions and Pick

Our pick to win this matchup is the Buccaneers, and we expect that Buccaneers will cover the spread (Buccaneers -3). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 40.5 points.

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How to Bet on Buccaneers vs. Panthers

You can bet on Buccaneers vs. Panthers at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Buccaneers vs. Panthers picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Luis Escalante

Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014 and is currently the Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. Luis comes from an analytics background, leveraging his data skills with multiple years of experience in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting.

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