Cincinnati vs. SMU Prediction: Picks & Start Time – October 2022

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AAC foes will clash when the No. 21 Cincinnati Bearcats (5-1) battle the SMU Mustangs (3-3).

Cincinnati vs. SMU Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3.5 points, with sportsbooks listing Cincinnati as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, Cincinnati has -168 odds to pick up the win, while SMU is listed at +137 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 59.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Cincinnati vs. SMU Live?

  • Game Day: Saturday, October 22, 2022
  • Game Time: 12:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Location: University Park, Texas
  • Stadium: Gerald J. Ford Stadium

Betting Preview


Cincinnati ranks 47th in total offense this year (432.0 yards per game), but has been playing really well on defense, ranking 19th-best in the FBS with 432.0 yards allowed per game. On offense, Cincinnati has been a top-25 unit, ranking 23rd-best in the FBS by averaging 38.2 points per game. The Bearcats rank 31st on defense (21.2 points allowed per game). Cincinnati owns the 32nd-ranked offense this season in terms of passing yards (278.0 passing yards per game), and has been better on the other side of the ball, ranking 19th-best with only 186.3 passing yards allowed per game. Cincinnati ranks 66th in run offense (154.0 rushing yards per game) and 44th in run defense (126.8 rushing yards allowed per game) this year. Despite sporting a bottom-25 defense on third down that ranks 21st-worst in the FBS (44.3% third-down percentage), Cincinnati has put up better results on offense, ranking 76th in the FBS by posting a 38.7% third-down percentage. With nine forced turnovers (69th in the FBS) against 10 turnovers committed (72nd in the FBS), Cincinnati’s -1-1 turnover margin ranks 100th in college football.


While SMU’s defense has been stuck in neutral, ranking 23rd-worst by allowing 432.3 total yards per game, its offense ranks 15th-best with 490.3 total yards per contest. SMU ranks 32nd in the FBS with 35.5 points per contest on offense, and it ranks 91st with 29.5 points surrendered per game on the defensive side of the ball. SMU’s passing attack has been leading the way for the team, as it ranks fourth-best in the FBS with 351.8 passing yards per contest. In terms of defense, it is allowing 223.3 passing yards per game, which ranks 60th. SMU has been struggling to stop the run, ranking 10th-worst with 209.0 rushing yards surrendered per game. It has been more effective on offense, posting 138.5 rushing yards per contest (83rd-ranked). From an offensive standpoint, SMU is posting a 46.2% third-down conversion percentage (32nd-ranked). It ranks 51st in the FBS defensively (35.8% third-down rate allowed). SMU owns a -3 turnover margin this season, which ranks 100th in the FBS.

Cincinnati vs. SMU Betting Analysis

Cincinnati Betting Insights

Cincinnati has covered the spread in a game two times this season (2-3-1). Cincinnati has an ATS record of 2-2-1 when playing as at least 3.5-point favorites. This season, Cincinnati games have hit the over four times. The Bearcats have yet to lose a game they played as the moneyline favorite this season, going 5-0. The Bearcats have played in five games as a moneyline favorite with odds of -168 or shorter and won each of them.

Mustangs Betting Insights

SMU has covered the spread one time this year (1-5-0). Games involving SMU have hit the over twice this year. The Mustangs have been listed as the underdog three times this season and have failed to win any of those games. The Mustangs have played as an underdog of +137 or more once this season and won that game.

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Cincinnati vs. SMU Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 55.1 55.7 54.5
Implied Total AVG 37.2 40.0 34.3
ATS Record 2-3-1 2-1-0 0-2-1
Over/Under Record 4-2-0 2-1-0 2-1-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 5-0 3-0 2-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-1 0-0 0-1


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 66.5 64.7 68.3
Implied Total AVG 40.2 43.3 37.0
ATS Record 1-5-0 0-3-0 1-2-0
Over/Under Record 2-4-0 2-1-0 0-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 2-0 1-0 1-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-3 0-1 0-2

Players to Watch


  • The Bearcats’ defensive unit has been aided by the contributions of Ivan Pace Jr., who has suited up for six games and amassed 46 tackles, 9.0 TFL, and six sacks.
  • Jabari Taylor has played six games, compiling 17 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and 2.5 sacks for the Bearcats.
  • As part of the Bearcats’ defense, Jowon Briggs has recorded 22 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and three sacks in six games.
  • Bryon Threats has been an important piece of the Bearcats’ defense in 2022, with one interception to go with 19 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and one pass defended in six games.


  • On defense, Nelson Paul has helped set the tone with 26 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and three sacks in six games.
  • On defense, Nick Roberts has helped lead the charge with 22 tackles and one interception in six games.
  • Shanon Reid has been providing a big boost on defense, amassing 3.0 TFL, 20 tackles, and one interception for the Mustangs.
  • Elijah Chatman has compiled 3.0 sacks to go with 3.0 TFL and 14 tackles in six games for the Mustangs.

Cincinnati vs. SMU Predictions and Pick

Cincinnati vs. SMU betting card

    Pick ATS:

    Mustangs (+3.5)

    Pick OU:

    Over (59.5)

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5 Second Chance Bets up to $50 each

How to Bet on Cincinnati vs. SMU

You can bet on Cincinnati vs. SMU at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Cincinnati vs. SMU picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our pick to win this game is SMU, and we project that SMU will cover the spread (Cincinnati -3.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 59.5 points.


Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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