Virginia vs Louisville Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – Wednesday, February 15, 2023

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The Louisville Cardinals (3-22, 1-14 ACC) will be looking to break a three-game losing skid when hosting the Virginia Cavaliers (19-4, 12-3 ACC) on Wednesday, February 15, 2023 at KFC Yum! Center. It airs at 7:00 PM ET on ESPNU.

Wednesday’s matchup between the Cavaliers and the Cardinals features the Cavaliers as colossal 16.5-point favorites. The matchup has an over/under of 127.5.

Virginia vs. Louisville Odds

Point Spread for Virginia vs. Louisville

The spread for this matchup is set at 16.5 points, with sportsbooks listing Virginia as the favorite.

Virginia vs. Louisville Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Virginia has -2016 odds to pick up the win, while Louisville is listed at +1000 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 127.5 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Wednesday, February 15, 2023
  • Game Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPNU
  • Location: Louisville, Kentucky
  • Arena: KFC Yum! Center

Virginia vs. Louisville Betting Trends

Virginia has 10 wins against the spread in 23 games this season. The Cavaliers have come away with 14 wins in the 16 contests they have been listed as the favorites in this season. Virginia’s games this year have hit the over 52% of the time (13 out of 25 games with a set point total).

Louisville has played 25 games, with nine wins, against the spread. The Cardinals have put together a 2-18 record in games they were listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 10% of those games). Louisville’s games this year have gone over the total in 11 of 25 opportunities (44%).

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Virginia vs. Louisville Key Players to Watch


Kihei Clark leads his squad in assists per game (5.9), and also averages 11.6 points and 2.7 rebounds. At the other end, he delivers 1.2 steals and 0.1 blocked shots. Reece Beekman posts 10.0 points, 3.3 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game. At the other end, he averages 1.4 steals and 0.5 blocked shots. Armaan Franklin paces his squad in points per contest (12.7), and also averages 4.2 rebounds and 1.2 assists. Defensively, he delivers 1.0 steal and 0.4 blocked shots.
Jayden Gardner is tops on the Cavaliers at 5.0 rebounds per contest, while also averaging 0.6 assists and 11.3 points.


Jae’Lyn Withers is No. 1 on the Cardinals in rebounding (5.0 per game), and produces 9.6 points and 0.7 assists. He also posts 0.7 steals and 0.4 blocked shots. The Cardinals get 9.3 points, 3.2 rebounds and 1.2 assists per game from Mike James. Sydney Curry gets the Cardinals 5.5 points, 4.8 rebounds and 0.3 assists per contest. He also averages 0.2 steals and 0.3 blocked shots.

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What you need to know about the Virginia Cavaliers

Virginia has won seven games against the spread in conference action this season, while failing to cover or pushing seven times. The Cavaliers are posting 70.0 points per game this year (219th-ranked in college basketball), but they’ve really thrived on defense, surrendering only 60.4 points per game (10th-best). Virginia ranks 304th in college basketball with 29.3 boards per game so far this year. Meanwhile, it ranks 44th with 28.4 rebounds allowed per contest.

At home, the Cavaliers are posting 0.5 more points per game (69.4) than they are when playing on the road (68.9). This season, Virginia is draining 7.5 threes per game (173rd-ranked in college basketball) and is shooting 37.7% (27th-ranked) from beyond the arc. The Cavaliers are allowing 7.1 treys per game (172nd-ranked in college basketball). They are allowing opposing teams to shoot 34.2% (216th-ranked) from downtown.

The Cavaliers have gone 9-1 over their past 10 contests, with a 6-3-1 record against the spread during that span. Six of Virginia’s past 10 games have hit the over. In its last 10 games, Virginia has been scoring 70.2 points per game, an average that’s slightly higher than the 70.0 it has scored over the course of the 2022-23 season. The last 10 games have seen Virginia give up 1.8 more points per game (62.2) than its season-long average (60.4).

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What you need to know about the Louisville Cardinals

A total of seven Louisville conference games this season have hit the over. The Cardinals are the 18th-worst squad in college basketball in points scored (64.0 per game) and 25th-worst in points conceded (76.1). In 2022-23, Louisville is 282nd in the country in rebounds (30.0 per game) and 199th in rebounds conceded (31.4).

In 2022-23 the Cardinals are scoring 1.3 more points per game at home (66.2) than away (64.9). Louisville makes 6.6 3-pointers per game and shoots 33.5% from beyond the arc, ranking 268th and 226th, respectively, in the country. The Cardinals are 302nd in the country in 3-pointers allowed (8.3 per game) and 307th in 3-point percentage defensively (35.9%).

The Cardinals have a 5-5 record against the spread while going 1-9 overall over their last 10 contests. Louisville has gone over the total in six of its last 10 contests. Louisville is compiling 67.0 points per game in its past 10 games, compared to its season average of 64.0. The Cardinals have played worse defensively over their past 10 games, ceding 79.2 points per contest, 3.1 more points their than season average of 76.1.

Virginia vs. Louisville Prediction & Pick

Our prediction to win this game is Virginia, and we project that Virginia will cover the spread (Virginia -16.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 127.5 points.

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How to bet Virginia vs. Louisville

You can bet on Virginia vs. Louisville at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Virginia vs. Louisville picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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