UConn vs. San Diego State Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

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This Sweet 16 battle features the No. 1 seed UConn Huskies (33-3) playing against the No. 5 seed San Diego State Aztecs (26-10) on Thursday at TD Garden. It tips off at 7:39 PM ET, with the winner advancing to the East Region bracket final.

Thursday’s matchup between the Huskies and the Aztecs features the Huskies as double-digit 12-point favorites. The matchup’s over/under is 136.5.

UConn vs. San Diego State Odds

Point Spread for UConn vs. San Diego State

The spread for this matchup is set at 12 points, with bookmakers listing UConn as the favorite.

UConn vs. San Diego State Moneyline

As for the moneyline, UConn has -900 odds to pick up the win, while San Diego State is listed at +600 to claim victory.

UConn vs. San Diego State Over/Under

Finally, the total for the game is set at 136.5 points.

Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Thursday, March 28, 2024
  • Game Time: 7:39 PM ET
  • TV Channel: TBS
  • Location: Boston, Massachusetts
  • Arena: TD Garden

UConn vs. San Diego State Betting Trends

Against the spread, UConn is 24-12-0 this year. The Huskies have been victorious in 26, or 92.9%, of the 28 contests they have been chosen as moneyline favorites in this season. UConn’s games this year have hit the over 50% of the time (17 out of 34 games with a set point total).

Against the spread, San Diego State is 14-20-0 this year. The Aztecs have put together a 2-5 record in games they were listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 28.6% of those games). San Diego State’s games this season have hit the over on 17 of 34 set point totals (50%).

UConn vs. San Diego State Key Players to Watch

UConn

Tristen Newton posts 15.3 points and 6.2 assists per contest — both team highs. He is also putting up 6.8 rebounds, shooting 42.0% from the floor and 32.1% from beyond the arc with 1.8 made 3-pointers per contest. Cam Spencer averages 14.4 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.6 assists per contest, shooting 48.8% from the floor and 44.0% from downtown with 2.6 made 3-pointers per contest. Donovan Clingan is tops on his squad in rebounds per contest (7.4), and also averages 12.8 points and 1.5 assists. Defensively, he delivers 0.5 steals and 2.4 blocked shots (10th in the nation). Alex Karaban posts 13.7 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game. At the other end, he delivers 0.9 steals and 0.8 blocked shots.

San Diego State

Jaedon LeDee is averaging team highs in points (21.5 per game) and rebounds (8.4). And he is producing 1.3 assists, making 56.4% of his shots from the field. The Aztecs receive 9.3 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game from Micah Parrish. The Aztecs get 9.4 points, 2.6 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game from Lamont Butler. Darrion Trammell is the Aztecs’ top assist man (3.3 per game), and he produces 7.9 points and 2.5 rebounds.

What you need to know about the UConn Huskies

In terms of points, the Huskies are dominating on both offense and defense, as they rank 21st-best in college basketball in points scored (81.6 per game) and 12th-best in points allowed (63.9 per contest). When it comes to rebounding, things are clicking for UConn, who is grabbing boards per game (best in college basketball) and allowing boards per contest (best).

This season, UConn is making 8.7 three-pointers per game (55th-ranked in college basketball) and is shooting 36.1% (59th-ranked) from downtown. The Huskies rank 44th in the nation with 5.9 threes allowed per game this year. Meanwhile, they rank 38th with a 31.3% shooting percentage allowed from downtown.

The Huskies have an 8-2 record against the spread while going 9-1 overall over their last 10 contests. Three of UConn’s past 10 contests have gone over the total. On the offensive side of the ball, UConn has had a tough time putting the ball in the basket over its last 10 games, scoring 80.4 points per contest over that span as opposed to the 81.6 it has put up over the course of this year. UConn’s points-allowed average over its last 10 games (64.4) is 0.5 more points per game than the team is allowing over the entire season (63.9).

What you need to know about the San Diego State Aztecs

The Aztecs are 144th in college basketball in points scored (74.7 per game) and 28th in points conceded (66.3). San Diego State is the best team in the nation in rebounds per game () and best in rebounds allowed ().

San Diego State makes 7.0 3-pointers per game and shoots 31.7% from beyond the arc, ranking 225th and 298th, respectively, in college basketball. The Aztecs are 124th in the nation in 3-pointers conceded (6.7 per game) and 24th-best in 3-point percentage defensively (30.8%).

The Aztecs have a 3-7 record against the spread while finishing 6-4 overall in their last 10 games. Four of San Diego State’s past 10 contests have gone over the total. San Diego State has played worse offensively over its previous 10 games, tallying 71.8 points per contest, 2.9 fewer points its than season average of 74.7. While the Aztecs are surrendering 66.3 points per game in 2023-24, they have bettered that mark over their last 10 games, allowing 64.5 points per contest.

UConn vs. San Diego State Prediction & Pick

Our pick to win this contest is UConn, and we project that San Diego State will cover the spread (UConn -12). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 136.5 points.

How to bet UConn vs. San Diego State

You can bet on UConn vs. San Diego State at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s UConn vs. San Diego State picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

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WRITTEN BY

Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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