Saint Mary’s (CA) vs VCU Prediction: Live Odds, Stats, History & Picks – Friday, March 17, 2023

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The No. 5 seed Saint Mary’s Gaels (26-7) and the No. 12 seed VCU Rams (27-7) will meet in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday at 2:00 PM. The matchup airs on TBS.

Saint Mary’s (CA) is a moderate 4-point favorite against VCU when the Gaels face off with the Rams on Friday. The over/under is 123 points for the game.

Saint Mary’s (CA) vs. VCU Odds

Point Spread for Saint Mary’s (CA) vs. VCU

The spread for this matchup is set at 4 points, with oddsmakers listing Saint Mary’s (CA) as the favorite.

Saint Mary’s (CA) vs. VCU Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Saint Mary’s (CA) has -188 odds to pick up the win, while VCU is listed at +157 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 123 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Friday, March 17, 2023
  • Game Time: 2:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: TBS
  • Location: Albany, New York
  • Arena: MVP Arena

Saint Mary’s (CA) vs. VCU Betting Trends

Saint Mary’s (CA) has played 32 games, with 17 wins against the spread. The Gaels have won in 24, or 85.7%, of the 28 contests they have been named as odds-on favorites in this year. Saint Mary’s (CA)’s games this year have gone over the total in 16 out of 34 opportunities (47.1%).

VCU has 19 wins against the spread in 34 games this year. The Rams have put together a 3-3 record in games they were listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 50% of those games). VCU has gone over the point total 41.2% of the time this year (14 of 34 games with a set point total).

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Saint Mary’s (CA) vs. VCU Key Players to Watch

Saint Mary’s (CA)

Mitchell Saxen paces his team in rebounds per game (7.8), and also posts 11.6 points and 1.7 assists. At the other end, he puts up 0.8 steals and 1.1 blocked shots. Aidan Mahaney puts up 14.5 points, 2.3 rebounds and 2 assists per contest. Defensively, he delivers 0.9 steals and 0.1 blocked shots. Alex Ducas averages 12.5 points, 4.2 rebounds and 0.9 assists per game, shooting 43.1% from the field and 41.8% from beyond the arc with 2.5 made 3-pointers per contest.


Jalen DeLoach paces the Rams in rebounding (7 per game), and puts up 10 points and 1.1 assists. He also delivers 1.1 steals and 1.4 blocked shots. Brandon Johns Jr. gets the Rams 11.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 0.8 assists per contest. He also averages 1 steal and 0.8 blocked shots. Jamir Watkins gets the Rams 9.6 points, 5.4 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game. He also posts 1.2 steals and 0.7 blocked shots.

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What you need to know about the Saint Mary’s Gaels

The Gaels are posting 71.4 points per game this season (184th-ranked in college basketball), but they’ve really thrived on defense, allowing just 60.1 points per contest (fifth-best). Saint Mary’s (CA) ranks third-best in the nation by allowing only 26.1 rebounds per game. It ranks 131st in college basketball by grabbing 32.5 boards per contest.

Saint Mary’s (CA) is sinking 7.8 three-pointers per game (125th-ranked in college basketball). It owns a 37.1% shooting percentage (39th-ranked) from three-point land. The Gaels are top-25 this season in three-pointers allowed, currently 10th-best in college basketball with 5.3 treys allowed per game. Meanwhile, they rank 105th with a 32.5% shooting percentage allowed from beyond the arc.

The Gaels have gone 7-3 over their last 10 games, with a 3-6-1 record against the spread in that span. In its past 10 games, Saint Mary’s (CA) has gone over the total six times. On the offensive side of the ball, Saint Mary’s (CA) has had a tough time putting the ball in the basket over its last 10 games, scoring 71.2 points per contest over that span as opposed to the 71.4 it has racked up over the course of this year. Saint Mary’s (CA)’s points-allowed average over its past 10 games (67) is 6.9 more points per game than the team is allowing over the entire season (60.1).

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What you need to know about the VCU Rams

In 2022-23, the Rams are 184th in the country offensively (71.4 points scored per game) and 24th-best on defense (62.9 points conceded). At 30.5 rebounds per game and 30.1 rebounds allowed, VCU is 257th and 108th in college basketball, respectively.

In 2022-23, VCU is 311th in the nation in 3-point makes (6.1 per game) and 154th in 3-point percentage (34.7%). Giving up 6 3-pointers per game and conceding 32.3% from downtown, the Rams are 37th and 89th in the nation, respectively, in those categories.

The Rams are 7-3 against the spread and 9-1 overall in their past 10 games. Four of VCU’s last 10 outings have gone over the total. VCU has fared better offensively in its previous 10 games, compiling 73.6 points per contest, 2.2 more than its season average of 71.4. The Rams have played better defensively over their past 10 games, surrendering 62 points per contest, 0.9 fewer points than their season average of 62.9 allowed.

Saint Mary’s (CA) vs. VCU Prediction & Pick

Our prediction to win this contest is Saint Mary’s (CA), and we expect that Saint Mary’s (CA) will cover the spread (Saint Mary’s (CA) -4). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 123 points.

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How to bet Saint Mary’s (CA) vs. VCU

You can bet on Saint Mary’s (CA) vs. VCU at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Saint Mary’s (CA) vs. VCU picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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