Purdue vs Illinois Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Sunday, March 5, 2023

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The Illinois Fighting Illini (20-10, 11-9 Big Ten) will try to stop a four-game road losing streak at the Purdue Boilermakers (25-5, 15-5 Big Ten) on Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 12:30 PM ET.

Sunday’s game between the Boilermakers and the Fighting Illini sees the Boilermakers as a solid, 6.5-point favorite. The over/under is 140 points for the game.

Purdue vs. Illinois Odds

Point Spread for Purdue vs. Illinois

The spread for this matchup is set at 6.5 points, with bookmakers listing Purdue as the favorite.

Purdue vs. Illinois Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Purdue has -319 odds to pick up the win, while Illinois is listed at +254 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 140 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Sunday, March 5, 2023
  • Game Time: 12:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: FOX
  • Location: West Lafayette, Indiana
  • Arena: Mackey Arena

Purdue vs. Illinois Betting Trends

Purdue is 12-17-1 against the spread this season. The Boilermakers have been victorious in 20, or 87%, of the 23 contests they have been chosen as favorites in this season. Purdue’s games this year have gone over the total in 12 out of 30 opportunities (40%).

Illinois is 17-13-0 against the spread this year. The Fighting Illini have been the moneyline underdog five total times this season. They’ve gone 2-3 in those games. Illinois has hit the over 43.3% of the time this year (13 of 30 games with a set point total).

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Purdue vs. Illinois Key Players to Watch


Zach Edey averages 22.1 points and 13.1 rebounds per contest — both team highs. He is also averaging 1.5 assists, shooting 61.6% from the floor. Braden Smith puts up a team-leading 4.2 assists per contest. He is also posting 9.8 points and 4.4 rebounds, shooting 44.5% from the field and 39.8% from downtown with 1.1 made 3-pointers per contest. Fletcher Loyer is posting 11.9 points, 2.5 assists and 1.7 rebounds per game. Caleb Furst puts up 6 points, 4.9 rebounds and 0.8 assists per game. At the other end, he puts up 0.4 steals and 0.4 blocked shots.


The Fighting Illini get 12.9 points, 5.4 rebounds and 1.2 assists per game from Matthew Mayer. Coleman Hawkins paces the Fighting Illini in rebounding (6.5 per game) and assists (2.9), and produces 9.8 points. He also delivers 1 steal and 1.1 blocked shots. Dain Dainja is posting 9.7 points, 5.6 rebounds and 0.5 assists per contest, making 64.7% of his shots from the floor.

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What you need to know about the Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue’s Big Ten games have gone over the point total nine out of 19 times this season. The Boilermakers have a top-25 defense this year, ranking 18th-best in college basketball with 62.2 points allowed per game. On offense, they rank 145th with 73.1 points scored per contest. Purdue has been getting things done in terms of rebounding this year, ranking eighth-best in the country in boards per game (36.7) and best in boards allowed per contest (24.2).

In home games, the Boilermakers are posting nine more points per game (76.3) than they are away from home (67.3). Purdue is sinking 6.9 threes per game (235th-ranked in college basketball) this year, while owning a 32.7% three-point percentage (263rd-ranked). With 6.3 threes conceded per game, the Boilermakers rank 65th in the nation. They are allowing a 31% shooting percentage from three-point land, which ranks 38th in college basketball.

The Boilermakers are 4-5-1 against the spread and 6-4 overall over their past 10 contests. Purdue has gone over the total in six of its last 10 contests. On offense, Purdue has struggled over its last 10 games, scoring 72.1 points per contest over that stretch as opposed to the 73.1 it has put up over the course of this year. Purdue’s points-allowed average over its past 10 games (67) is 4.8 more points per game than the team is allowing over the entire season (62.2).

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What you need to know about the Illinois Fighting Illini

Illinois’ conference games have hit the over seven out of 19 times this year. Offensively the Fighting Illini are the 113th-ranked squad in college basketball (74.7 points per game). Defensively they are 70th (66.3 points allowed per game). In 2022-23, Illinois is 15th-best in the country in rebounds (35.9 per game) and 128th in rebounds conceded (30.2).

In 2022-23 the Fighting Illini are scoring 7.6 more points per game at home (77.5) than on the road (69.9). Illinois is 139th in the nation in 3-pointers made (7.7 per game) and 22nd-worst in 3-point percentage (30.9%). The Fighting Illini are 34th in the country in 3-pointers allowed (6 per game) and 152nd in 3-point percentage defensively (33.4%).

The Fighting Illini are 5-5 against the spread and 6-4 overall over their last 10 games. In its past 10 games, Illinois has hit the over four times. Over its previous 10 games, Illinois is averaging 72.5 points per contest, 2.2 fewer points than its season average (74.7). Over their previous 10 games, the Fighting Illini are ceding 70.2 points per contest, 3.9 more points than their season average (66.3).

Purdue vs. Illinois Prediction & Pick

Our pick to win this matchup is Purdue, and we predict that Purdue will cover the spread (Purdue -6.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 140 points.

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How to bet Purdue vs. Illinois

You can bet on Purdue vs. Illinois at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Purdue vs. Illinois picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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