North Carolina vs Virginia Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – Saturday, February 25, 2023

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The North Carolina Tar Heels (17-11, 9-8 ACC) square off against the Virginia Cavaliers (21-5, 13-4 ACC) on Saturday at 6:00 PM ET in ACC play, aiting on ESPN.

North Carolina is a 4.5-point favorite against Virginia when the Tar Heels face off against the Cavaliers on Saturday. The over/under is 132 points for the game.

North Carolina vs. Virginia Odds

Point Spread for North Carolina vs. Virginia

The spread for this matchup is set at 4.5 points, with sportsbooks listing North Carolina as the favorite.

North Carolina vs. Virginia Moneyline

As for the moneyline, North Carolina has -201 odds to pick up the win, while Virginia is listed at +166 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 132 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Saturday, February 25, 2023
  • Game Time: 6:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Location: Chapel Hill, North Carolina
  • Arena: Dean Smith Center

North Carolina vs. Virginia Betting Trends

Against the spread, North Carolina is 8-20-0 this year. The Tar Heels have been victorious in 17, or 77.3%, of the 22 contests they have been chosen as favorites in this season. North Carolina has hit the over in 46.2% of its opportunities this year (12 times over 26 games with a set point total).

Against the spread, Virginia is 10-15-1 this year. The Cavaliers have won two of the four games they were listed as the moneyline underdog this season (50%). Virginia’s games this season have hit the over on 13 of 26 set point totals (50%).

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North Carolina vs. Virginia Key Players to Watch

North Carolina

Armando Bacot is tops on his squad in both points (17.3) and rebounds (11.1) per game, and also posts 1.5 assists. Defensively, he puts up 0.7 steals and 1.1 blocked shots. RJ Davis puts up a team-high 3.2 assists per contest. He is also averaging 15.6 points and 4.9 rebounds, shooting 42.1% from the field and 32.6% from downtown with 1.7 made 3-pointers per game. Caleb Love posts 17.1 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.8 assists per contest, shooting 39% from the field and 31.2% from downtown with 2.3 made 3-pointers per game. Rechon ‘Leaky’ Black is posting 7.1 points, 1.4 assists and 6.5 rebounds per contest.


Kihei Clark tops the Cavaliers in assists (5.7 per game), and produces 11.6 points and 2.7 rebounds. He also posts 1.1 steals and 0.1 blocked shots. The Cavaliers receive 9.6 points, 3.1 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game from Reece Beekman. Armaan Franklin leads the Cavaliers in scoring (12.4 points per game) and assists (1.3), and produces 4.2 rebounds. He also averages 0.9 steals and 0.4 blocked shots. Jayden Gardner is putting up a team-leading 5.2 rebounds per contest. And he is delivering 11.3 points and 0.7 assists, making 51.3% of his shots from the floor.

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What you need to know about the North Carolina Tar Heels

In North Carolina’s 17 ACC games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total six times. With 77.3 points per game on offense, the Tar Heels rank 55th in the country. Defensively, they give up 72.1 points per contest, which ranks 245th in college basketball. North Carolina ranks sixth-best in the country by averaging 36.9 boards per game. In terms of rebounds allowed, it ranks 232nd in college basketball (31.8 allowed per contest).

Offensively, the Tar Heels have fared better when playing at home this season, averaging 80.5 points per game, compared to 69.5 per game on the road. North Carolina, who is 256th in college basketball with 6.7 made threes per game, is shooting just 29.9% from downtown, which is 14th-worst in college basketball. With 6.8 three-pointers conceded per game, the Tar Heels are 126th in the country. They are giving up a 33.5% shooting percentage from beyond the arc, which ranks 160th in college basketball.

The Tar Heels have two wins against the spread, and are 5-5 overall, over their past 10 contests. In its past 10 contests, North Carolina has gone over the total twice. North Carolina’s offense has been less effective over its last 10 games, scoring 72.5 points a contest compared to the 77.3 it has averaged this season. North Carolina’s points-allowed average over its last 10 games (70.8) is 1.3 fewer points per game than the team is allowing over the entire season (72.1).

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What you need to know about the Virginia Cavaliers

Virginia and its opponents have combined to go over the point total eight out of 17 times this season in ACC action. In 2022-23, the Cavaliers are 266th in college basketball offensively (68.3 points scored per game) and ninth-best defensively (60.2 points conceded). On the glass, Virginia is 303rd in college basketball in rebounds (29.3 per game). It is 47th in rebounds conceded (28.6 per game).

The Cavaliers average 68.5 points per game at home, and 66 away. Virginia makes 7.3 3-pointers per game and shoots 36.4% from beyond the arc, ranking 192nd and 67th, respectively, in college basketball. Giving up 7.1 3-pointers per game and conceding 34.3% from beyond the arc, the Cavaliers are 167th and 218th in college basketball, respectively, in those categories.

The Cavaliers have a 5-4-1 record against the spread while going 8-2 overall in their past 10 games. Five of Virginia’s past 10 contests have gone over the total. Virginia is posting 66.3 points per contest over its previous 10 games, which is two fewer points than its average for the season (68.3). While the Cavaliers are ceding 60.2 points per game in 2022-23, they have been worse over their past 10 games, allowing 61.6 points per contest.

North Carolina vs. Virginia Prediction & Pick

Our pick to win this contest is North Carolina, and we project that Virginia will cover the spread (North Carolina -4.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 132 points.

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How to bet North Carolina vs. Virginia

You can bet on North Carolina vs. Virginia at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s North Carolina vs. Virginia picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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