Baylor vs Iowa State Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – Thursday, March 9, 2023

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The No. 4 seed Baylor Bears (22-9, 11-7 Big 12) and the No. 5 seed Iowa State Cyclones (18-12, 9-9 Big 12) face off in the Big 12 Tournament Thursday at T-Mobile Center. Gametime is at 12:30 PM.

Baylor is a 4.5-point favorite against Iowa State when the Bears hit the court against the Cyclones on Thursday. The over/under is 134.5 points for the game.

Baylor vs. Iowa State Odds

Point Spread for Baylor vs. Iowa State

The spread for this matchup is set at 4.5 points, with oddsmakers listing Baylor as the favorite.

Baylor vs. Iowa State Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Baylor has -196 odds to pick up the win, while Iowa State is listed at +165 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 134.5 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Thursday, March 9, 2023
  • Game Time: 12:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Location: Kansas City, Missouri
  • Arena: T-Mobile Center

Baylor vs. Iowa State Betting Trends

In Baylor’s 31 games this year, it has 16 wins against the spread. The Bears have won in 18, or 72%, of the 25 contests they have been named as odds-on favorites in this year. Baylor’s games this year have hit the over on 16 of 30 set point totals.

Against the spread, Iowa State is 15-15-0 this season. The Cyclones have been the moneyline underdog 15 total times this season. They’ve finished 7-8 in those games. Iowa State’s games this season have eclipsed the over/under 10 times in 30 opportunities (33.3%).

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Baylor vs. Iowa State Key Players to Watch


Adam Flagler puts up a team-high 4.7 assists per game. He is also putting up 15.6 points and 2.5 rebounds, shooting 42.3% from the field and 41.1% from downtown with 2.6 made 3-pointers per game. Keyonte George posts 16 points and 2.8 assists per game — both team highs. He is also posting 4.2 rebounds, shooting 38.9% from the floor and 34.9% from beyond the arc with 2.4 made 3-pointers per game. Jalen Bridges posts a team-best 5.8 rebounds per contest. He is also averaging 9.7 points and 1 assists, shooting 47.3% from the floor. LJ Cryer averages 14.6 points, 2.2 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game. Defensively, he delivers 0.5 steals and 0 blocked shots.

Iowa State

Jaren Holmes paces the Cyclones in scoring (13.2 points per game) and assists (3.3), and puts up 3.7 rebounds. He also posts 1.1 steals and 0.1 blocked shots. Tamin Lipsey leads the Cyclones in assists (4.6 per game), and posts 7.3 points and 3.6 rebounds. He also posts 2.1 steals and 0.1 blocked shots. Gabe Kalscheur gets the Cyclones 12.7 points, 2.4 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game. He also averages 1.5 steals and 0.2 blocked shots. Osun Osunniyi is the Cyclones’ top rebounder (4 per game), and he delivers 8.6 points and 1.1 assists.

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What you need to know about the Baylor Bears

Baylor’s Big 12 games have gone over the point total 10 out of 18 times this season. This season, the Bears are averaging 77.3 points per game (53rd-ranked in college basketball) and surrendering 70 points per contest (176th-ranked). So far this year, Baylor is grabbing 30.7 boards per game (247th-ranked in college basketball) and giving up 28.8 rebounds per contest (52nd-ranked).

Baylor ranks top-25 this season in three-point shooting, ranking 18th-best in college basketball with 9.5 three-pointers per game. Meanwhile, it ranks 48th with a 36.8% shooting percentage from beyond the arc. This year, the Bears are allowing 6.8 three-pointers per game (128th-ranked in college basketball) and are allowing opponents to shoot 32% (73rd-ranked) from downtown.

The Bears are 6-4 against the spread and 6-4 overall over their last 10 games. In its past 10 contests, Baylor has hit the over five times. Baylor’s offense has been less productive over its last 10 games, racking up 74.2 points a contest compared to the 77.3 it has averaged this season. Baylor has been a little suspect on the defensive end of the floor of late, allowing 72 points per game over its last 10 contests compared to the 70 it has surrendered this year.

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What you need to know about the Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State has won nine games against the spread this year in conference play, while failing to cover nine times. On offense, the Cyclones are the 263rd-ranked squad in the nation (68.5 points per game). Defensively, they are 16th-best (62.2 points conceded per game). Iowa State is 266th in the nation in rebounds per game (30.2) and 26th in rebounds conceded (28).

In 2022-23, Iowa State is 277th in the country in 3-point makes (6.5 per game) and 214th in 3-point percentage (33.6%). The Cyclones are 219th in the country in 3-pointers conceded (7.5 per game) and 139th in 3-point percentage defensively (33.2%).

The Cyclones have a 3-7 record against the spread while finishing 3-7 overall in their last 10 contests. In its past 10 games, Iowa State has gone over the total three times. While Iowa State is scoring 68.5 points per game in 2022-23, it has fallen short of that over its last 10 games, producing 64.3 points per contest. While the Cyclones are surrendering 62.2 points per game in 2022-23, they have been worse in their last 10 games, allowing 65.6 points per contest.

Baylor vs. Iowa State Prediction & Pick

Our pick to win this game is Baylor, and we project that Iowa State will cover the spread (Baylor -4.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 134.5 points.

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How to bet Baylor vs. Iowa State

You can bet on Baylor vs. Iowa State at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Baylor vs. Iowa State picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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