Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Friday, March 10, 2023

httpscdn.dataskrive.comapiasset6fG20rF Betsperts Media & Technology

The top-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide (26-5, 16-2 SEC) are taking on the No. 9 seed Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-11, 8-10 SEC) in the SEC Tournament on Friday at Bridgestone Arena. The game is scheduled for 1:00 PM.

Friday’s matchup between the Crimson Tide and the Bulldogs features the Crimson Tide as strong 8-point favorites. The point total for the game is set at 139.5.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Odds

Point Spread for Alabama vs. Mississippi State

The spread for this matchup is set at 8 points, with oddsmakers listing Alabama as the favorite.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Alabama has -365 odds to pick up the win, while Mississippi State is listed at +287 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 139.5 points.

First Bet Offer on this game up to $1,000

Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Friday, March 10, 2023
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Location: Nashville, Tennessee
  • Arena: Bridgestone Arena

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Betting Trends

In Alabama’s 31 games this season, it has 17 wins against the spread. The Crimson Tide have won in 23, or 88.5%, of the 26 contests they have been named as odds-on favorites in this year. Alabama’s games this year have gone over the total in 15 out of 32 opportunities (46.9%).

In Mississippi State’s 32 games this season, it has 16 wins against the spread. The Bulldogs have gone 2-6 in games they were the underdog on the moneyline (winning 25% of those games). Mississippi State’s games this year have gone over the point total 13 times in 32 opportunities (40.6%).

FanDuel NCAAB Promo
No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Key Players to Watch


Brandon Miller leads his team in both points (19.6) and assists (1.8) per game, and also posts 8 rebounds. At the other end, he averages 0.9 steals and 0.9 blocked shots. Noah Clowney registers a team-best 8.2 rebounds per game. In addition, he’s averaging 10 points and 0.9 assists, shooting 48.8% from the floor. Mark Sears posts 13.3 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists per contest. At the other end, he posts 1.3 steals and 0.1 blocked shots. Charles Bediako is putting up 5.7 points, 0.6 assists and 5.6 rebounds per game.

Mississippi State

Tolu Smith is posting team highs in points (15.8 per game) and rebounds (8.4). And he is contributing 1.8 assists, making 57.6% of his shots from the floor. The Bulldogs receive 8.9 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game from D.J. Jeffries. Cameron Matthews gets the Bulldogs 7.2 points, 5.7 rebounds and 2.3 assists per contest. He also posts 1.5 steals and 0.6 blocked shots. Shakeel Moore is putting up 9.9 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2.3 assists per contest, making 42.2% of his shots from the field and 26.8% from beyond the arc, with 1.1 treys per game.

DraftKings NCAAB Promo
Bet $5, Win $150

What you need to know about the Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama and its SEC opponents have combined to hit the over seven out of 18 times this season. The Crimson Tide have been carried by their offense, as they rank fifth-best in the country by putting up 82.8 points per game. They rank 157th in college basketball in points allowed (69.5 per contest). Alabama is allowing 33 boards per game this year (299th-ranked in college basketball), but it has provided a lift by averaging 40.8 rebounds per game (best).

Alabama ranks 11th-best in the nation by making 10 treys per game. In terms of three-point percentage, it ranks 196th in college basketball at 33.9%. The Crimson Tide have been shining when it comes to defending against three-point shooting this season, ranking 16th-best in college basketball in threes allowed per game (5.6) and third-best in three-point percentage allowed (28.4%).

The Crimson Tide have gone 8-2 over their last 10 contests, with a 4-6 record against the spread in that span. Five of Alabama’s past 10 games have hit the over. Alabama has been racking up 83.6 points per contest in its last 10 appearances, an average that’s slightly higher than the 82.8 it has scored over the course of the 2022-23 campaign. Alabama’s points-allowed average over its past 10 games (68.9) is 0.6 fewer points per game than the team is allowing over the entire season (69.5).

Caesars NCAAB Promo
$1,250 bet on Caesars on this game

What you need to know about the Mississippi State Bulldogs

So far this year, 11 out of Mississippi State’s 19 SEC games with an over/under have hit the over. In 2022-23, the Bulldogs are 314th in the nation on offense (66.4 points scored per game) and 11th-best on defense (60.7 points conceded). Mississippi State is 32nd in the country in rebounds per game (35) and 123rd in rebounds allowed (30.2).

In 2022-23 Mississippi State is 16th-worst in the country in 3-point makes (5.3 per game) and -4-worst in 3-point percentage (27%). In 2022-23, the Bulldogs are 178th in the nation in 3-pointers conceded (7.2 per game) and 27th in defensive 3-point percentage (30.5%).

The Bulldogs have a 6-4 record against the spread while going 7-3 overall over their past 10 contests. In its past 10 contests, Mississippi State has hit the over seven times. Mississippi State is putting up 68.2 points per game over its last 10 games, which is 1.8 more than its average for the season (66.4). While the Bulldogs are ceding 60.7 points per game in 2022-23, they have been worse over their previous 10 games, allowing 64.2 points per contest.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Prediction & Pick

Our pick to win this game is Alabama, and we project that Alabama will cover the spread (Alabama -8). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 139.5 points.

BetMGM First Bet Offer up to $1000
First Bet Offer

How to bet Alabama vs. Mississippi State

You can bet on Alabama vs. Mississippi State at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Alabama vs. Mississippi State picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

Deals of the Day

See All