Duke vs. UCF Military Bowl Prediction: Picks & Start Time – December 28, 2022

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The Duke Blue Devils will meet the UCF Knights in the Military Bowl.

Duke vs. UCF Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3 points, with bookmakers listing Duke as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, Duke has -162 odds to pick up the win, while UCF is listed at +134 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 62 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Duke vs. UCF Live?

  • Game Day: Wednesday, December 28, 2022
  • Game Time: 2:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Location: Annapolis, Maryland
  • Stadium: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium

Betting Preview


Duke is totaling 386.2 yards per game offensively this season (66th in the FBS), and are giving up 360.8 yards per game (48th) on the other side of the ball. On offense, Duke ranks 32nd in the FBS with 33.1 points per game. Meanwhile, the team’s defense ranks 36th in points allowed (360.8 points allowed per contest). Despite sporting a bottom-25 pass defense that ranks 25th-worst in the FBS (258.3 passing yards allowed per game), Duke has played better offensively, ranking 80th in the FBS by averaging 219.9 passing yards per game. Duke owns the 55th-ranked offense this year in terms of rushing yards (166.3 per game), and has been more effective defensively, ranking 12th-best with just 102.6 rushing yards allowed per game. Despite sporting a bottom-25 defense on third down that ranks 20th-worst in the FBS (43.1% third-down percentage), Duke has put up better results offensively, ranking 54th in the FBS by posting a 40.1% third-down percentage. With 22 forced turnovers (14th in the FBS) against nine turnovers committed (fifth in the FBS), Duke’s +13 turnover margin is the fourth-best in college football.

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UCF’s defense ranks 74th in the FBS with 382.3 total yards surrendered per contest, but it has been bolstered by its offense, which ranks 10th-best by accumulating 480.2 total yards per game. From an offensive perspective, UCF is posting 34.4 points per contest (26th-ranked). It ranks 39th in the FBS on defense (23.2 points given up per game). From an offensive angle, UCF is generating 244.5 passing yards per game (52nd-ranked). It ranks 72nd in the FBS on defense (226.1 passing yards surrendered per game). UCF’s rushing attack has been leading the charge for the team, as it ranks sixth-best in the FBS with 235.7 rushing yards per game. In terms of defense, it is ceding 156.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks 79th. UCF’s third-down offense has been leading the way for the team, as it ranks 15th-best in the FBS with a 47.2% third-down conversion percentage. In terms of defense, it is surrendering a 37.2% third-down rate, which ranks 57th. After forcing 16 turnovers (64th in the FBS) and turning the ball over 17 times (70th in the FBS) this season, UCF owns the 100th-ranked turnover margin of -1.

Duke vs. UCF Betting Analysis

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Duke Betting Insights

Duke has gone 8-4-0 against the spread this season. In games it has played as 3-point favorites or more, Duke has an ATS record of 2-3. Duke games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under six times this season. The Blue Devils are 4-1 in games they were favored on the moneyline (winning 80% of those games). The Blue Devils are 2-1 (winning 75% of their games) when they have played as a moneyline favorite of -162 or shorter.

Knights Betting Insights

UCF has covered the spread seven times in 13 games with a set total. UCF is winless against the spread when it is 3-point underdogs or more (0-1). UCF games have gone over the total six times this season. The Knights have split the two games they’ve played as underdogs this season. The Knights have a record of 0-1 when they’re set as an underdog of +134 or more by oddsmakers this season.

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Duke vs. UCF Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 56.4 57.8 55.1
Implied Total AVG 33.1 34.3 31.8
ATS Record 8-4-0 5-1-0 3-3-0
Over/Under Record 6-6-0 3-3-0 3-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 4-1 3-0 1-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 3-3 1-1 2-2


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 58.6 56.8 60.8
Implied Total AVG 35.3 36.6 33.8
ATS Record 7-6-0 4-3-0 3-3-0
Over/Under Record 6-7-0 2-5-0 4-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 7-3 4-2 3-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-1 0-0 1-1

Players to Watch


  • Shaka Heyward has helped lead the Blue Devils’ defense with 92 tackles, five TFL, two sacks, and two interceptions in 11 games.
  • Darius Joiner has suited up for 11 games, recording two interceptions to go along with 83 tackles, five TFL, three sacks, and three passes defended for the Blue Devils.
  • As part of the Blue Devils’ defensive unit, Brandon Johnson has recorded two interceptions to go along with 43 tackles, five TFL, four sacks, and seven passes defended in 11 games.
  • The Blue Devils’ defense has been helped by the contributions of Jaylen Stinson, who has suited up for 12 games, delivering 63 tackles and two interceptions.


  • Jason Johnson has been causing chaos on defense, recording 112 tackles, three TFL, and one sack for the Knights.
  • Tre’Mon Morris-Brash has compiled 47 tackles, 10 TFL, and six sacks in 12 games for the Knights.
  • Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste has been doing his part on defense, recording one sack to go with four TFL and 52 tackles for the Knights.
  • Divaad Wilson has amassed three interceptions to go with 39 tackles, one TFL, and four passes defended In 11 games for the Knights.

Duke vs. UCF Predictions and Pick

Duke vs. UCF betting card

    Pick ATS:

    Knights (+3)

    Pick OU:

    Under (62)

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How to Bet on Duke vs. UCF

You can bet on Duke vs. UCF at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Duke vs. UCF picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our pick to win this game is UCF, and we expect that UCF will cover the spread (Duke -3). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 62 points.


Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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