Mississippi State vs. Bowling Green Prediction: Picks & Start Time – September 2022

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The Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-1) will battle the Bowling Green Falcons (1-2) at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field in Starkville, Mississippi.

Mississippi State vs. Bowling Green Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 31 points, with sportsbooks listing Mississippi State as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, Mississippi State has -10000 odds to pick up the win, while Bowling Green is listed at +2400 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 52.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Mississippi State vs. Bowling Green Live?

  • Game Day: Saturday, September 24, 2022
  • Game Time: 12:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: SEC Network
  • Location: Starkville, Mississippi
  • Stadium: Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field

Betting Preview

Mississippi State

Mississippi State is averaging 420.7 yards per game on offense, which ranks 67th in the FBS. On the other side of the ball, the Bulldogs rank 50th, surrendering 342.0 yards per game. Mississippi State ranks 56th in scoring offense (34.7 points per game) and 62nd in scoring defense (23.7 points allowed per game) this season. Mississippi State owns the 70th-ranked defense this year in terms of passing yards (217.0 allowed per game), and has been better offensively, ranking 12th-best with 328.0 passing yards per game. While Mississippi State’s run defense ranks 55th with 125.0 rushing yards allowed per game, the offense has been worse, ranking 15th-worst (92.7 rushing yards per game). Mississippi State is putting up a 48.7% third-down conversion rate offensively this season (34th in the FBS), and is surrendering a 31.7% third-down percentage (42nd) on the other side of the ball. With five forced turnovers (48th in the FBS) against seven turnovers committed (103rd in the FBS), Mississippi State’s -2-2 turnover margin ranks 100th in college football.

Bowling Green

Bowling Green’s defense has been a bottom-25 unit in total defense this season, ceding 538.3 total yards per game, which ranks second-worst. Offensively, it ranks 104th with 323.3 total yards per contest. Bowling Green’s defense has been a bottom-25 unit in scoring defense this season, surrendering 45.0 points per game, which ranks fourth-worst in the FBS. On the offensive side of the ball, it ranks 52nd with 36.0 points per contest. Bowling Green ranks 82nd in passing yards per game (236.0), but it has been less effective defensively, ranking second-worst in the FBS with 345.7 passing yards surrendered per contest. In terms of rushing, this season has been rough for Bowling Green on both offense and defense, as it is compiling only 87.3 rushing yards per game (13th-worst) and allowing 192.7 rushing yards per game (22nd-worst). Bowling Green has been struggling on third down, ranking ninth-worst with a 53.8% third-down conversion percentage allowed per game. It has been better on the other side of the ball, posting a 35.2% third-down rate (95th-ranked). Bowling Green has a top-25 turnover margin this season, ranking 10th-best at +5.

Mississippi State vs. Bowling Green Betting Analysis

Mississippi State Betting Insights

Mississippi State has covered the spread two times over three games with a set spread. Games involving Mississippi State have hit the over once this season. The Bulldogs have a 2-1 record in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite (winning 66.7% of those games). The Bulldogs have not yet played as a moneyline favorite of -10000 or shorter.

Falcons Betting Insights

Bowling Green has covered the spread one time this season (1-2-0). Every game involving Bowling Green has hit the over so far this year. The Falcons have split the two games they’ve played as underdogs this season. The Falcons have not entered a game this season with longer moneyline odds than +2400.

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Mississippi State vs. Bowling Green Against The Spread & Betting Records

Mississippi State

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 56.3 58.0 55.5
Implied Total AVG 33.7 38.0 31.5
ATS Record 2-1-0 1-0-0 1-1-0
Over/Under Record 1-2-0 1-0-0 0-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 2-1 1-0 1-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 53.8 52.5 56.5
Implied Total AVG 35.0 32.5 40.0
ATS Record 1-2-0 1-1-0 0-1-0
Over/Under Record 3-0-0 2-0-0 1-0-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 0-1 0-1 0-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-1 1-0 0-1

Players to Watch

Mississippi State

  • Nathaniel Watson has helped spur the Bulldogs’ defense with 19 tackles, 2.0 TFL, one sack, and one interception in three games.
  • The Bulldogs’ defensive unit has been aided by the contributions of Jett Johnson, who has suited up for three games and recorded 1.0 TFL and 25 tackles.
  • Tyrus Wheat has played three games, compiling 13 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and one sack for the Bulldogs.
  • A significant piece of the Bulldogs’ defense, Nathan Pickering has eight tackles, 2.0 TFL, and two sacks in three games.


  • JB Brown has recorded eight tackles, 1.0 TFL, and one sack in three games for the Falcons.
  • In three games for the Falcons, Karl Brooks has delivered four tackles, 3.0 TFL, and two sacks.
  • Demetrius Hardamon has been wreaking havoc on defense, recording 2.0 sacks to go with 3.0 TFL and three tackles for the Falcons.
  • Brock Horne has totaled 1.0 sack to go with 1.0 TFL and eight tackles in three games for the Falcons.

Mississippi State vs. Bowling Green Predictions and Pick

Mississippi State vs. Bowling Green betting card

    Pick ATS:

    Falcons (+31)

    Pick OU:

    Over (52.5)

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How to Bet on Mississippi State vs. Bowling Green

You can bet on Mississippi State vs. Bowling Green at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Mississippi State vs. Bowling Green picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our pick to win this game is Mississippi State, and we expect that Bowling Green will cover the spread (Mississippi State -31). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 52.5 points.


Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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