Nascar Odds, Picks, & Best Bet: Ambetter 301 in New Hampshire

Tyler Reddick celebrating his first career Nascar victory

Nascar heads to Louden New Hampshire and the New Hampshire Motor Speedway for this Sunday’s Ambetter 301. The green flag drops at 3:00 pm et for this 301-lap/318.46-mile long race which saw Aric Almirola win last year, and at a track where Ford and Toyota have won 14 of the last 15 events. I shopped the odds over at Fanduel Sportsbook and found my favorite bets to make for the race. Check out my Ambetter 301 betting card and Best Bet below.

Top 10 Finish: Cole Custer +850

Custer is by no means among the top drivers in the Cup Series and isn’t normally someone competing for a top 10. He has just one such finish this season and a total of only three since the beginning of last year. However, Custer has run well at short tracks during his short career.

  • 8th and 14th place finishes in Cup Series here
  • Runner-up in Xfinity back in 2019
  • Avg finish of 11.5 at similar sized Dover
  • Last two trips to Phoenix have resulted in 16th and 13th place finishes

Odds this high are usually reserved for guys with “no shot” but Cole has more than enough career success here and at similar tracks to indicate this being a possibility for the Ambetter 301. He is routinely running around the mid to low teens at these style of tracks and Ford’s have historically performed extremely well here. The fact that teammate’s Kevin Harvick and Aric Almirola have won three of the last four races here also doesn’t hurt.

Outright: Ross Chastain +1000

There is a lot of controversy surrounding the watermelon man right now regarding his driving style. Say what you will about him, but it’s producing results and Chastain has elevated himself to an every-week contender. He was even able to finish runner-up last week in Atlanta with a completely torn-up front end just showcasing how good he and the Trackhouse team has been in 2022. In terms of potential this weekend, Ross finished 8th last year and hasn’t been the greatest in New Hampshire historically, but he’s clearly a different and much better driver this year as evidenced below. 

  • Runner-up in Phoenix, 3rd at the similar sized Dover, and 8th at Gateway this year
  • 8th best total speed ranking at similar tracks in 2022
  • Top-5 finishes in three consecutive races ahead of Sunday
  • Season best 10 top-5’s on the year

Although Chevy’s have had a tough time finding victory lane here, a driver like Chastain is just the guy to throw a wrench in that trend. At 10/1, he’s more than worth a gamble to win the Ambetter 301.

Ambetter 301 Best Bet: Tyler Reddick Top 10 -135

Reddick is one of the best young drivers in the sport and has proven that this season. He’s already set a career-high with five top-5 finishes and notched his first ever victory back at Road America. Reddick is used to running near the front and has shown this by leading laps in 9 of the season’s 19 total races. This should be no different this Sunday at New Hampshire.

  • Finished 10th and 13th in Cup Series
  • 4th in Xfinity Series back in 2019

He’s also been really good at similar tracks during 2022:

  • Placed 3rd in Phoenix
  • 6th best speed rating at shorter flat tracks (Phoenix, Richmond, Gateway)

In addition to his potential of cashing this bet, Reddick has routinely qualified inside the top 10 which has only shortened his odds. This number will likely creep closer to -150 to -175 after qualifying so jump on it now.

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Featured Image credit: Logan Riely/Getty Images


Brian Twining

Sports, of all kind, have been a huge part of my life and daily routine for as long as I can remember. My favorite sports to watch are College Basketball, College Football, the NFL, MLB, Nascar, & the FIFA World Cup. My favorite sports to bet on are the NFL, Nascar, College Hoops, and College Football.

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