Nuggets vs Timberwolves Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – NBA Playoffs Game 4

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The Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40) will aim to prove the oddsmakers wrong as 4-point underdogs in a decisive Game 4 of the first round of the NBA Playoffs, and will face off against the Denver Nuggets at Target Center on Sunday, beginning at 9:30 PM ET on TNT. The Nuggets are up 3-0 in the series. The over/under is set at 222.5 points for the matchup.

How to bet Nuggets vs. Timberwolves

Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 4 points, with oddsmakers listing the Nuggets as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Nuggets have -181 odds to pick up the win, while the Timberwolves are listed at +153 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 222.5 points.

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Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Sunday, April 23, 2023
  • Game Time: 9:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: TNT
  • Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
  • Arena: Target Center

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Betting Trends

Against the spread, the Nuggets are 44-36-2 this season. Denver has been chosen as the favorite in 61 games this year and has walked away with the win 43 times (70.5%) in those games. Nuggets games this year have gone over the point total 37 times in 82 opportunities (45.1%).

The Timberwolves have played 82 games, with 39 wins against the spread. Minnesota has put together a 21-22 record in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 48.8% of those games). Timberwolves games this season have hit the over on 37 of 82 set point totals (45.1%).

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Potential Starting Lineups and Key Players


Nuggets Leaders
Nikola Jokic 69 24.5 11.8 9.8 1.3 0.7 0.8
Jamal Murray 65 20 4 6.2 1 0.2 2.6
Michael Porter Jr. 62 17.4 5.5 1 0.6 0.5 3
Aaron Gordon 68 16.3 6.6 3 0.8 0.8 0.9
Bruce Brown 80 11.5 4.1 3.4 1.1 0.6 1.1


Timberwolves Leaders
Anthony Edwards 79 24.6 5.8 4.4 1.6 0.7 2.7
Karl-Anthony Towns 29 20.8 8.1 4.8 0.7 0.6 2.1
Rudy Gobert 70 13.4 11.6 1.2 0.8 1.4 0
Mike Conley 67 11.9 2.7 6.7 1.1 0.2 2
Jaylen Nowell 65 10.8 2.6 2 0.6 0.1 1
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Nuggets: None

Timberwolves: Naz Reid: Out (Wrist), Jaden McDaniels: Out (Hand), Jaylen Nowell: Questionable (Knee), Josh Minott: Questionable (Ankle)

What you need to know about the Denver Nuggets

Denver ranks 12th in the NBA with 115.8 points per game this year. At the other end of the court, it ranks eighth with 112.5 points allowed per game. Offensively the Nuggets have played better at home this year, scoring 119.4 points per game, compared to 112.2 per game on the road. On offense, the Nuggets have had a hard time putting the ball in the basket over their last 10 games, scoring 108.5 points per contest over that span compared to the 115.8 they’ve put up over the course of this season.

With a 37.9% three-point percentage this season, Denver is fourth-best in the NBA. It ranks 18th in the league by draining 11.8 treys per contest. Of the shots taken by the Nuggets in 2022-23, 63.9% of them have been two-pointers (72.9% of the team’s made baskets) and 36.1% have been from beyond three-point land (27.1%).

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What you need to know about the Minnesota Timberwolves

In 2022-23, Minnesota is 12th in the league offensively (115.8 points scored per game) and 18th on defense (115.8 points allowed). The Timberwolves are putting up more points at home (115.9 per game) than away (115.6). In their previous 10 games, the Timberwolves are posting 111 points per contest, 4.8 fewer points than their season average (115.8).

Minnesota makes 12.2 3-pointers per game and shoots 36.5% from beyond the arc, ranking 13th and 13th, respectively, in the NBA. The Timberwolves take 38.1% percent of their shots from beyond the arc, and 28.4% of their made shots are from there. Inside the 3-point line, they attempt 61.9% of their shots, with 71.6% of their makes coming from there.

Our pick to win this game is the Nuggets, and we predict that Timberwolves will cover the spread (Nuggets -4). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 222.5 points.

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You can bet on Nuggets vs. Timberwolves at every legal online sportsbook. For more NBA odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NBA prop odds, check out the latest NBA lines as well as our guide to the best NBA betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Nuggets vs. Timberwolves picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Luis Escalante

Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014 and is currently the Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. Luis comes from an analytics background, leveraging his data skills with multiple years of experience in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting.

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