Heat vs Hawks Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Saturday, March 4, 2023

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The Miami Heat (33-31) host the Atlanta Hawks (32-31) on March 4, 2023 at FTX Arena. The Heat are favorites, by one point, in a matchup pitting one of the league’s top defensive squads in the NBA versus one of the best offensive teams. The Heat are second in points allowed per contest (108.8), while the Hawks are fifth in points scored (117.1). The point total in this contest is 225.

How to bet Heat vs. Hawks

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 1 point, with bookmakers listing the Heat as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Heat have -116 odds to pick up the win, while the Hawks are listed at -104 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 225 points.

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Heat vs. Hawks Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Saturday, March 4, 2023
  • Game Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: BSSU
  • Location: Miami, Florida
  • Arena: FTX Arena

Heat vs. Hawks Betting Trends

Against the spread, the Heat are 22-39-3 this season. Miami has been the favorite in 45 games this season and has come away with the win 27 times (60%) in those contests. Heat games this year have gone over the total in 28 out of 63 opportunities (44.4%).

The Hawks have 28 wins against the spread in 63 games this year. Atlanta is 11-16 in games it was the underdog on the moneyline (winning 40.7% of those games). Hawks games this year have hit the over on 35 of 63 set point totals (55.6%).

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Potential Starting Lineups and Key Players


Heat Leaders
Jimmy Butler 49 22 5.9 5 2 0.3 0.5
Bam Adebayo 59 21.2 9.7 3.2 1.2 0.8 0
Tyler Herro 50 20.4 5.6 4.4 0.8 0.3 3
Max Strus 62 12.2 3.5 2.2 0.6 0.2 2.5
Victor Oladipo 31 10.3 3.4 3.5 1.5 0.2 1.4


Hawks Leaders
Trae Young 56 27 3 10.1 1.1 0.2 2.2
Dejounte Murray 58 21.2 5.4 6.1 1.5 0.3 2.1
De’Andre Hunter 53 15.6 4.3 1.4 0.5 0.2 1.6
Bogdan Bogdanovic 38 14.5 3.3 2.9 0.8 0.4 2.8
Saddiq Bey 58 14.3 4.6 1.5 0.9 0.2 2
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Heat vs. Hawks Injury Report

Hawks: None

What you need to know about the Miami Heat

Because of Miami’s offensive struggles this season, ranking worst in the NBA with 108 points per game, it has been forced to lean on its defense, which ranks second-best in the league by surrendering 108.8 points per game. The Heat are putting up 108.6 points per game when playing at home. Away from home, they are averaging 107.4 points per contest. The Heat’s offense has been worse over their last 10 games, scoring 105.2 points a contest compared to the 108 they’ve averaged this season.

Miami, who is 17th in the league with 11.6 made threes per game, is shooting just 33.3% from three-point land, which is third-worst in the NBA. When it comes to shot breakdown, the Heat have taken 59.7% two-pointers (accounting for 70.2% of the team’s buckets) and 40.3% from beyond the arc (29.8%).

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What you need to know about the Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta is the fifth-best squad in the league in points scored (117.1 per game) and 21st in points conceded (116.9). At home, the Hawks average 117.1 points per game. On the road, they average the same number. The Hawks have fared better offensively in their previous 10 games, averaging 120.5 points per contest, 3.4 more than their season average of 117.1.

Beyond the arc, Atlanta is 22nd in the NBA in 3-pointers made per game (10.8). It is 19th in 3-point percentage at 35.4%. In 2022-23, the Hawks have taken 33% percent of their shots from beyond the arc, and 67% percent from inside it. In terms of makes, 24.3% of the Hawks’ baskets have been 3-pointers, and 75.7% have been 2-pointers.

Heat vs. Hawks Predictions and Pick

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You can bet on Heat vs. Hawks at every legal online sportsbook. For more NBA odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NBA prop odds, check out the latest NBA lines as well as our guide to the best NBA betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Heat vs. Hawks picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Austin Harper

Austin is a co-founders at Betsperts and a devoted father of 2. Born and raised in Atlanta Georgia, Austin is passionate about the Atlanta Hawks, Braves, and Falcons. Austin received his Bachelors of Science from Clemson University and gets back for Clemson football and basketball games every chance he gets!

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