Warriors vs Bucks Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Saturday, March 11, 2023

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A matchup pitting one of the NBA’s highest-scoring squads versus one of the strongest teams defensively, the Golden State Warriors (34-33) host the Milwaukee Bucks (48-18) at Chase Center on March 11, 2023. The Warriors are third in points per game (118), and the Bucks are fifth in points allowed (111.7). Golden State is a favorite, by 3.5 points. The point total in the game is set at 240.5.

How to bet Warriors vs. Bucks

Golden State Warriors vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3.5 points, with oddsmakers listing the Warriors as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Warriors have -155 odds to pick up the win, while the Bucks are listed at +133 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 240.5 points.

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Warriors vs. Bucks Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Saturday, March 11, 2023
  • Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ABC
  • Location: San Francisco, California
  • Arena: Chase Center

Warriors vs. Bucks Betting Trends

In the Warriors’ 67 games this season, they have 31 wins against the spread. Golden State has been chosen as the favorite in 45 games this year and has walked away with the win 27 times (60%) in those games. Warriors games this year have gone over the total in 37 out of 66 opportunities (56.1%).

The Bucks have played 66 games, with 36 wins against the spread. Milwaukee has won four of the 12 games it was the underdog on the moneyline this season (33.3%). The Bucks have eclipsed the over/under 47% of the time this season (31 of 66 games with a set point total).

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Potential Starting Lineups and Key Players


Warriors Leaders
Stephen Curry 41 29.6 6.2 6.4 1 0.4 5
Klay Thompson 55 22 4.1 2.5 0.7 0.3 4.3
Jordan Poole 67 20.7 2.8 4.6 0.8 0.2 2.6
Donte DiVincenzo 57 9.1 4.4 3.4 1.3 0.2 2.1
Draymond Green 59 8.5 7.3 6.8 1 0.8 0.6


Bucks Leaders
Giannis Antetokounmpo 52 31.2 11.9 5.5 0.7 0.8 0.8
Jrue Holiday 54 19.7 5 7.3 1.2 0.4 2.4
Brook Lopez 65 15.2 6.6 1.3 0.5 2.5 1.9
Bobby Portis 55 14 9.7 1.7 0.4 0.2 1.2
Khris Middleton 23 13.6 4.2 4.5 0.7 0.1 1.3
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Warriors: Andrew Wiggins: Out (Personal), Gary Payton: Out (Abdominal), Jonathan Kuminga: Questionable (Ankle), Ryan Rollins: Out (Foot)

Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo: Questionable (Illness), Goran Dragic: Probable (Knee), Serge Ibaka: Out (Personal), Wesley Matthews: Out (Calf)

What you need to know about the Golden State Warriors

Golden State has a top-five offense this year, ranking third-best in the league with 118 points per game. At the other end, it ranks 25th with 117.6 points allowed per contest. Offensively the Warriors have performed better when playing at home this year, scoring 119.4 points per game, compared to 116.6 per game in road games. The Warriors’ offense has been worse over their last 10 games, putting up 114.9 points a contest compared to the 118 they’ve averaged this season.

Golden State is dominating when it comes to three-point shooting, as it ranks best in the league in three-pointers (16.5 per game) and fourth-best in shooting percentage from three-point land (38.2%). In terms of shot breakdown, the Warriors have taken 51.9% two-pointers (accounting for 61.3% of the team’s buckets) and 48.1% threes (38.7%).

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What you need to know about the Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee is ninth in the NBA in points scored (115.9 per game) and fifth-best in points allowed (111.7). In 2022-23 the Bucks are scoring 7.7 more points per game at home (119.6) than away (111.9). The Bucks are scoring 123.1 points per game in their last 10 games, compared to their season average of 115.9.

In 2022-23 Milwaukee is fourth-best in the NBA in 3-point makes (14.8 per game), and it ranks No. 11 in 3-point percentage (36.5%). The Bucks attempt 44.7% percent of their shots from behind the 3-point line, and 55.3% percent from inside it. In terms of makes, 35% of the Bucks’ buckets are 3-pointers, and 65% are 2-pointers.

Our prediction to win this matchup is the Bucks, and we project that Bucks will cover the spread (Warriors -3.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 240.5 points.

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You can bet on Warriors vs. Bucks at every legal online sportsbook. For more NBA odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NBA prop odds, check out the latest NBA lines as well as our guide to the best NBA betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Warriors vs. Bucks picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Dan Smullen

Hailing all the way from Dublin, Ireland, Dan Smullen has BSC. in the Sports and Exercise Sciences from the University of Limerick. He is data obsessed. In the past he has worked both as a video performance analyst and provided biometric performance testing and analysis for professional rugby teams. Dan is obsessed about helping the average punter become more successful at sports betting through the assistance of good sports betting data analysis. He has worked with over 200 journalists at multiple editorial teams in his previous role as Head of Search for the largest national news publisher in Ireland.

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