Louisiana vs Texas State Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – Sunday, March 5, 2023

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The No. 2 seed Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (24-7, 13-5 Sun Belt) square off against the No. 11 seed Texas State Bobcats (16-18, 6-12 Sun Belt) in the Sun Belt Tournament Sunday at Pensacola Bay Center, tipping off at 8:30 PM. Both teams will try to get one step closer to earning an automatic place in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The Ragin’ Cajuns are currently healthy 7-point favorites over the Bobcats. The matchup’s over/under is 138.5.

Louisiana vs. Texas State Odds

Point Spread for Louisiana vs. Texas State

The spread for this matchup is set at 7 points, with oddsmakers listing Louisiana as the favorite.

Louisiana vs. Texas State Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Louisiana has -313 odds to pick up the win, while Texas State is listed at +248 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 138.5 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Sunday, March 5, 2023
  • Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN+
  • Location: Pensacola, Florida
  • Arena: Pensacola Bay Center

Louisiana vs. Texas State Betting Trends

In Louisiana’s 28 games this year, it has 15 wins against the spread. The Ragin’ Cajuns have come away with 20 wins in the 22 contests they have been listed as the favorites in this season. Louisiana’s games this year have gone over the total in 17 out of 31 opportunities (54.8%).

Texas State has played 31 games, with 12 wins, against the spread. The Bobcats have won 36.8% of the games this season they were the moneyline underdog (7-12). Texas State’s games this season have hit the over on 18 of 31 set point totals (58.1%).

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Louisiana vs. Texas State Key Players to Watch


Jordan Brown posts 19.7 points and 8.5 rebounds per game — both team highs. He is also posting 1.8 assists, shooting 58% from the floor. Terence Lewis II is averaging 11 points, 1.1 assists and 7.6 rebounds per game. Greg Williams Jr. averages 13.7 points, 3.6 rebounds and 1.4 assists per contest, shooting 49.3% from the field and 40.5% from beyond the arc with 1.9 made 3-pointers per game.
Themus Fulks leads his squad in assists per game (6), and also puts up 9.1 points and 2.9 rebounds. Defensively, he averages 1 steal and 0 blocked shots.

Texas State

Tyler Morgan is averaging a team-leading 6.2 rebounds per contest. And he is contributing 8.9 points and 1.5 assists, making 47.2% of his shots from the field. Nighael Ceaser is averaging 9.5 points, 6.3 rebounds and 1 assists per game, making 51.4% of his shots from the field. Nate Martin is putting up 8 points, 4.8 rebounds and 0.9 assists per contest, making 51.3% of his shots from the field.

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What you need to know about the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns

Louisiana has put together an 11-8-0 ATS record in conference games so far this year. With 78.7 points per game on offense, the Ragin’ Cajuns are 32nd in the country. Defensively, they cede 70.3 points per contest, which ranks 185th in college basketball. So far this season, Louisiana is pulling down 34.2 boards per game (49th-ranked in college basketball) and allowing 28.1 rebounds per contest (29th-ranked).

So far this year, Louisiana is sinking 7.1 treys per game (212th-ranked in college basketball) and is shooting 37.6% (27th-ranked) from beyond the arc. The Ragin’ Cajuns are surrendering 6.1 treys per game (41st-ranked in college basketball) this season, while allowing a 34.3% three-point percentage (208th-ranked).

The Ragin’ Cajuns are 5-5 against the spread and 7-3 overall in their past 10 contests. Six of Louisiana’s past 10 contests have hit the over. Louisiana’s offense has been less effective over its last 10 games, racking up 76.7 points a contest compared to the 78.7 it has averaged this season. The past 10 games have seen Louisiana give up 0.4 more points per game (70.7) than its season-long average (70.3).

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What you need to know about the Texas State Bobcats

Texas State has compiled an 8-12-1 ATS record so far this year in conference games. In 2022-23, the Bobcats are 318th in the country offensively (66.2 points scored per game) and 82nd defensively (66.8 points allowed). On the boards, Texas State is 280th in college basketball in rebounds (30 per game). It is 25th-best in rebounds conceded (27.9 per game).

In 2022-23 Texas State is 0-worst in the country in 3-point makes (4.5 per game) and rank 333rd in 3-point percentage (31%). Giving up 6.2 3-pointers per game and conceding 36.1% from downtown, the Bobcats are 53rd and 309th in the country, respectively, in those categories.

The Bobcats have gone 5-5 over their last 10 games, with a 5-5 record against the spread during that span. Texas State has hit the over in eight of its last 10 outings. Texas State has performed better offensively in its last 10 games, compiling 70.4 points per contest, 4.2 more than its season average of 66.2. The Bobcats are ceding 69.2 points per contest in their last 10 games, which is 2.4 more points than they are allowing for the season (66.8).

Louisiana vs. Texas State Prediction & Pick

Our pick to win this contest is Louisiana, and we predict that Texas State will cover the spread (Louisiana -7). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 138.5 points.

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How to bet Louisiana vs. Texas State

You can bet on Louisiana vs. Texas State at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Louisiana vs. Texas State picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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