Kentucky vs Florida Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Saturday, February 4, 2023

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The Kentucky Wildcats (15-7, 6-3 SEC) square off against the Florida Gators (13-9, 6-3 SEC) on Saturday at 8:30 PM ET in SEC play.

The Wildcats are currently 4.5-point favorites against the Gators. The matchup’s point total is 132.5.

Kentucky vs. Florida Odds

Point Spread for Kentucky vs. Florida

The spread for this matchup is set at 4.5 points, with oddsmakers listing Kentucky as the favorite.

Kentucky vs. Florida Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Kentucky has -203 odds to pick up the win, while Florida is listed at +169 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 132.5 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Saturday, February 4, 2023
  • Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • Location: Lexington, Kentucky
  • Arena: Rupp Arena

Kentucky vs. Florida Betting Trends

Against the spread, Kentucky is 9-13-0 this year. The Wildcats have won in 11, or 73.3%, of the 15 contests they have been named as odds-on favorites in this year. Kentucky’s games this year have hit the over on 13 of 22 set point totals.

In Florida’s 22 games this season, it has 12 wins against the spread. The Gators have been the moneyline underdog seven total times this season. They’ve gone 2-5 in those games. Florida’s games this season have hit the over on seven of 22 set point totals (31.8%).

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Kentucky vs. Florida Key Players to Watch


Oscar Tshiebwe paces his squad in both points (16.5) and rebounds (13.6) per game, and also posts 1.4 assists. At the other end, he posts 1.6 steals and 1 block. Cason Wallace puts up 11.3 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists per contest. At the other end, he puts up 2 steals and 0.4 blocked shots. Jacob Toppin is putting up 11.5 points, 2.1 assists and 6.3 rebounds per game. Antonio Reeves puts up 13.4 points, 2.2 rebounds and 1.2 assists per game. Defensively, he delivers 0.4 steals and 0.2 blocked shots.


Colin Castleton paces the Gators in scoring (15.1 points per game) and rebounding (7.7), and averages 2.6 assists. He also averages 1 steal and 3.1 blocked shots (third in the country). Will Richard gets the Gators 10.1 points, 4.6 rebounds and 0.9 assists per game. He also puts up 0.9 steals and 0.8 blocked shots. Kyle Lofton is posting a team-high 3 assists per game. And he is contributing 8.8 points and 3 rebounds, making 41.4% of his shots from the floor. The Gators get 7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 0.4 assists per game from Alex Fudge.

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What you need to know about the Kentucky Wildcats

So far this season, six out of Kentucky’s nine SEC games have gone over the point total. The Wildcats rank 92nd in college basketball with 75.3 points per game so far this season. At the other end of the court, they rank 100th with 66.8 points allowed per game. In terms of rebounding, it’s been a dominant stretch for Kentucky, who is grabbing 36.1 rebounds per game (20th-best in college basketball) and allowing 27.3 boards per contest (14th-best).

Offensively the Wildcats have fared better at home this season, scoring 80.6 points per game, compared to 66.8 per game in road games. Kentucky is draining 7 treys per game (228th-ranked in college basketball) this year, while owning a 36.6% three-point percentage (53rd-ranked). So far this season, the Wildcats are allowing 6.5 treys per game (100th-ranked in college basketball) and are allowing opposing teams to shoot 33.2% (161st-ranked) from three-point land.

The Wildcats have a 5-5 record against the spread while finishing 7-3 overall in their last 10 contests. Kentucky has hit the over in seven of its last 10 games. Kentucky’s offense has been less productive over its last 10 games, scoring 71.6 points a contest compared to the 75.3 it has averaged this year. Kentucky’s defense has been less stingy lately, as the team has allowed 67.3 points per game during its past 10 compared to the 66.8 points per game its opponents are averaging on the season.

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What you need to know about the Florida Gators

Florida has put together a 7-2-0 ATS record so far this year in conference action. At 71.5 points scored per game and 64.5 points allowed, the Gators are 177th in the nation on offense and 50th defensively. Florida collects 33.3 rebounds per game and give up 33.7 boards, ranking 113th and 322nd, respectively, in the nation.

The Gators are scoring more points at home (77.6 per game) than away (60.7). Beyond the arc, Florida is 252nd in the country in 3-pointers made per game (6.8). It is 273rd in 3-point percentage at 32.4%. Defensively, the Gators are 25th-best in the nation in 3-pointers conceded per game at 5.7. They are 38th in 3-point percentage allowed at 30.4%.

The Gators have gone 6-4 in their past 10 games, with a 7-3 record against the spread during that span. In its past 10 games, Florida has gone over the total twice. In its past 10 games, Florida is averaging 65.4 points per contest, 6.1 fewer points than its season average (71.5). The Gators are surrendering 61.3 points per contest over their last 10 games, which is 3.2 fewer points than they are allowing for the season (64.5).

Kentucky vs. Florida Prediction & Pick

Our pick to win this contest is Kentucky, and we expect that Kentucky will cover the spread (Kentucky -4.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 132.5 points.

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How to bet Kentucky vs. Florida

You can bet on Kentucky vs. Florida at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Kentucky vs. Florida picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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