Cincinnati vs SMU Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – Sunday, March 5, 2023

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The Cincinnati Bearcats (19-11, 10-7 AAC) will be looking to build on a four-game home winning run when squaring off against the SMU Mustangs (10-20, 5-12 AAC) on Sunday, March 5, 2023 at Fifth Third Arena. It airs at 2:00 PM ET on ESPN+.

Sunday’s matchup between the Bearcats and the Mustangs sees the Bearcats as a double-digit favorite by 12.5 points. The game’s point total is 146.5.

Cincinnati vs. SMU Odds

Point Spread for Cincinnati vs. SMU

The spread for this matchup is set at 12.5 points, with sportsbooks listing Cincinnati as the favorite.

Cincinnati vs. SMU Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Cincinnati has -839 odds to pick up the win, while SMU is listed at +571 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 146.5 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Sunday, March 5, 2023
  • Game Time: 2:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN+
  • Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
  • Arena: Fifth Third Arena

Cincinnati vs. SMU Betting Trends

Against the spread, Cincinnati is 19-10-0 this year. The Bearcats have been chosen as favorites in 21 games this year and have walked away with the win 17 times (81%) in those games. Cincinnati’s games this year have eclipsed the over/under 15 times in 30 opportunities (50%).

In SMU’s 30 games this season, it has 11 wins against the spread. The Mustangs have been the moneyline underdog 18 total times this season. They’ve finished 3-15 in those games. SMU’s games this season have eclipsed the over/under 63.3% of the time (19 out of 30 games with a set point total).

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Cincinnati vs. SMU Key Players to Watch


Landers Nolley II averages a team-leading 16.3 points per contest. He is also averaging 5.8 rebounds and 2.7 assists, shooting 46.2% from the field and 41.4% from downtown with 2.6 made 3-pointers per contest. David Dejulius leads his team in assists per game (5.2), and also posts 14.6 points and 2.2 rebounds. At the other end, he posts 1.1 steals and 0 blocked shots. Viktor Lakhin is tops on the Bearcats at 7.1 rebounds per contest, while also posting 0.5 assists and 12.3 points. Jeremiah Davenport is putting up 9.8 points, 1.6 assists and 4.2 rebounds per contest.


Samuell Williamson tops the Mustangs in rebounding (7.3 per game), and produces 9.3 points and 2.6 assists. He also averages 1.5 steals and 0.8 blocked shots. Zach Nutall gets the Mustangs 13.4 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. He also posts 1.1 steals and 0.4 blocked shots. Efe Odigie gives the Mustangs 11.4 points, 7 rebounds and 1 assists per game. He also posts 0.5 steals and 0.3 blocked shots.

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What you need to know about the Cincinnati Bearcats

Cincinnati’s AAC games have gone over the point total eight out of 17 times this season. So far this season, the Bearcats are averaging 77.3 points per game (53rd-ranked in college basketball) and giving up 69.6 points per contest (166th-ranked). With 33.9 boards per game, Cincinnati ranks 58th in college basketball. It allows 31 rebounds per contest, which ranks 178th in college basketball.

The Bearcats are scoring 81.8 points per game this season at home, which is 11.7 more points than they’re averaging in road games (70.1). With 9 threes per game, Cincinnati is 33rd in college basketball. It owns a 35.7% shooting percentage from beyond the arc, which ranks 99th in college basketball. The Bearcats are ceding 6 treys per game (34th-ranked in college basketball) this year, while allowing a 32.2% three-point percentage (82nd-ranked).

The Bearcats are 6-4 against the spread and 5-5 overall over their past 10 contests. Cincinnati has hit the over in six of its last 10 games. Cincinnati’s offense has been better over its last 10 games, putting up 77.4 points per contest compared to the 77.3 it has averaged this season. Cincinnati’s defense has been less stingy lately, as the team has allowed 74 points per game over its last 10 compared to the 69.6 points per game its opponents are averaging on the season.

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What you need to know about the SMU Mustangs

SMU is 6-10-1 ATS in conference play this season. The Mustangs put up 70.1 points per game and give up 74.8, ranking them 214th in the country offensively and 310th defensively. SMU is 203rd in college basketball in rebounds per game (31.4) and 20th-worst in rebounds conceded (34.2).

At home the Mustangs are putting up 70.9 points per game, 3.4 more than they are averaging away (67.5). SMU makes 6.4 3-pointers per game and shoots 31.1% from beyond the arc, ranking 287th and 330th, respectively, in the country. In 2022-23, the Mustangs are 229th in the nation in 3-pointers conceded (7.6 per game) and 208th in defensive 3-point percentage (34.3%).

The Mustangs have gone 3-7 over their last 10 contests, with a 4-5-1 record against the spread during that span. Seven of SMU’s past 10 outings have hit the over. SMU is averaging 73.1 points per contest in its previous 10 games, compared to its season average of 70.1. The Mustangs have performed worse defensively in their previous 10 games, ceding 79.4 points per contest, 4.6 more points their than season average of 74.8.

Cincinnati vs. SMU Prediction & Pick

Our prediction to win this matchup is Cincinnati, and we expect that SMU will cover the spread (Cincinnati -12.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 146.5 points.

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How to bet Cincinnati vs. SMU

You can bet on Cincinnati vs. SMU at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Cincinnati vs. SMU picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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