Nuggets vs Heat Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – NBA Finals Game 6

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The Denver Nuggets lead 4-1 going into Game 6 of the NBA Finals. The Nuggets are 3.5-point favorites for the game, which airs on ABC at 8:30 PM ET. The point total is set as 210.5 points in the contest.

How to bet Nuggets vs. Heat

Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3.5 points, with bookmakers listing the Nuggets as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Nuggets have -162 odds to pick up the win, while the Heat are listed at +138 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 210.5 points.

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Nuggets vs. Heat Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Thursday, June 15, 2023
  • Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ABC
  • Location: Miami, Florida
  • Arena: FTX Arena

Nuggets vs. Heat Betting Trends

The Nuggets have played 82 games, with 44 wins against the spread. Denver has been chosen as the favorite in 61 games this year and has walked away with the win 43 times (70.5%) in those games. Nuggets games this year have gone over the total in 37 out of 82 opportunities (45.1%).

The Heat have 30 wins against the spread in 82 games this season. Miami has won 33.3% of the games this season it was the underdog on the moneyline (8-16). Heat games this season have hit the over 48.8% of the time (40 out of 82 games with a set point total).

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Potential Starting Lineups and Key Players


Nuggets Leaders
Nikola Jokic 69 24.5 11.8 9.8 1.3 0.7 0.8
Jamal Murray 65 20.0 4.0 6.2 1.0 0.2 2.6
Michael Porter Jr. 62 17.4 5.5 1.0 0.6 0.5 3.0
Aaron Gordon 68 16.3 6.6 3.0 0.8 0.8 0.9
Bruce Brown 80 11.5 4.1 3.4 1.1 0.6 1.1


Heat Leaders
Jimmy Butler 64 22.9 5.9 5.3 1.8 0.3 0.6
Bam Adebayo 75 20.4 9.2 3.2 1.2 0.8 0.0
Tyler Herro 67 20.1 5.4 4.2 0.8 0.2 3.0
Max Strus 80 11.5 3.2 2.1 0.5 0.2 2.5
Kyle Lowry 55 11.2 4.1 5.1 1.0 0.4 1.9
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Nuggets vs. Heat Injury Report

Heat: Victor Oladipo: Out (Knee)

What you need to know about the Denver Nuggets

On offense, Denver is scoring 115.8 points per game (12th-ranked in league). It is allowing 112.5 points per contest at the other end (eighth-ranked). The Nuggets post 119.4 points per game in home games, compared to 112.2 points per game away from home, a difference of 7.2 points per contest. The Nuggets have been racking up 112.0 points per contest in their last 10 times on the court, an average that’s slightly lower than the 115.8 they’ve scored over the course of the 2022-23 season.

Denver is draining 11.8 three-pointers per game this season (18th-ranked in NBA), and it has a 37.9% three-point percentage (fourth-best). Of the shots attempted by the Nuggets in 2022-23, 63.9% of them have been two-pointers (72.9% of the team’s made baskets) and 36.1% have been threes (27.1%).

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What you need to know about the Miami Heat

In 2022-23, Miami is worst in the league on offense (109.5 points scored per game) but second-best defensively (109.8 points allowed). The Heat are putting up more points at home (111.4 per game) than away (107.5). In their previous 10 games, the Heat are averaging 101.2 points per game, compared to their season average of 109.5.

Miami is 16th in the league in 3-pointers made (12.0 per game) and fourth-worst in 3-point percentage (34.4%). The Heat attempt 59.2% percent of their shots from inside the 3-point line, and 40.8% percent from beyond it. In terms of makes, 69.5% of the Heat’s buckets are 2-pointers, and 30.5% are 3-pointers.

Our pick to win this contest is the Nuggets, and we expect that Heat will cover the spread (Nuggets -3.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 210.5 points.

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You can bet on Nuggets vs. Heat at every legal online sportsbook. For more NBA odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NBA prop odds, check out the latest NBA lines as well as our guide to the best NBA betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Nuggets vs. Heat picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Austin Harper

Austin is a co-founders at Betsperts and a devoted father of 2. Born and raised in Atlanta Georgia, Austin is passionate about the Atlanta Hawks, Braves, and Falcons. Austin received his Bachelors of Science from Clemson University and gets back for Clemson football and basketball games every chance he gets!

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