Celtics vs Heat Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – Eastern Conference Finals Game 6

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The Miami Heat (44-38) are looking to pull off an upset as slight 2-point underdogs for a decisive Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals, and will face off against the Boston Celtics at FTX Arena on Saturday, beginning at 8:30 PM ET on TNT. The Heat hold a 3-2 lead in the series. The over/under for the matchup is 209.5 points.

How to bet Celtics vs. Heat

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 2 points, with sportsbooks listing the Celtics as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Celtics have -131 odds to pick up the win, while the Heat are listed at +110 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 209.5 points.

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Celtics vs. Heat Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Saturday, May 27, 2023
  • Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: TNT
  • Location: Miami, Florida
  • Arena: FTX Arena

Celtics vs. Heat Betting Trends

Against the spread, the Celtics are 44-35-3 this year. Boston has won 53, or 71.6%, of the 74 contests in which it was the favorite this year. Celtics games this year have eclipsed the over/under 52.4% of the time (43 out of 82 games with a set point total).

The Heat are 30-48-4 against the spread this season. Miami has won eight of the 24 games it was listed as the moneyline underdog this season (33.3%). The Heat have eclipsed the over/under 48.8% of the time this year (40 of 82 games with a set point total).

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Potential Starting Lineups and Key Players


Celtics Leaders
Jayson Tatum 74 30.1 8.8 4.6 1.1 0.7 3.2
Jaylen Brown 67 26.6 6.9 3.5 1.1 0.4 2.4
Malcolm Brogdon 67 14.9 4.2 3.7 0.7 0.3 2
Derrick White 82 12.4 3.6 3.9 0.7 0.9 1.8
Marcus Smart 61 11.5 3.1 6.3 1.5 0.4 1.9


Heat Leaders
Jimmy Butler 64 22.9 5.9 5.3 1.8 0.3 0.6
Bam Adebayo 75 20.4 9.2 3.2 1.2 0.8 0
Max Strus 80 11.5 3.2 2.1 0.5 0.2 2.5
Kyle Lowry 55 11.2 4.1 5.1 1 0.4 1.9
Caleb Martin 71 9.6 4.8 1.6 1 0.4 1.2
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Celtics vs. Heat Injury Report

Heat: Victor Oladipo: Out (Knee), Tyler Herro: Out (Hand), Gabe Vincent: Probable (Ankle)

What you need to know about the Boston Celtics

When it comes to points, Boston is thriving on both offense and defense, as it ranks fourth-best in the league in points scored (117.9 per game) and fourth-best in points allowed (111.4 per contest). Offensively the Celtics have performed better in home games this year, scoring 120.5 points per game, compared to 115.4 per game when playing on the road. The Celtics have seen a downturn in scoring recently, putting up 108.8 points per game in their last 10 contests, 9.1 points fewer than the 117.9 they’ve scored this year.

Boston ranks top-five this year in three-point shooting, ranking second-best in the league with 16 treys per game. Meanwhile, it ranks sixth with a 37.7% shooting percentage from downtown. So far this year, the Celtics have taken 52% two-pointers, accounting for 62% of the team’s buckets. They have shot 48% three-pointers (38% of the team’s baskets).

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What you need to know about the Miami Heat

In 2022-23, Miami is worst in the NBA on offense (109.5 points scored per game) but second-best on defense (109.8 points conceded). The Heat score 111.4 points per game at home, and 107.5 away. In their last 10 games, the Heat are scoring 107.6 points per contest, 1.9 fewer points than their season average (109.5).

Beyond the arc, Miami is 16th in the NBA in 3-pointers made per game (12). It is fourth-worst in 3-point percentage at 34.4%. The Heat take 40.8% percent of their shots from beyond the arc, and 30.5% of their made shots are from there. Inside the arc, they attempt 59.2% of their shots, with 69.5% of their makes coming from there.

Our prediction to win this game is the Celtics, and we expect that Celtics will cover the spread (Celtics -2). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 209.5 points.

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You can bet on Celtics vs. Heat at every legal online sportsbook. For more NBA odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NBA prop odds, check out the latest NBA lines as well as our guide to the best NBA betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Celtics vs. Heat picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Luis Escalante

Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014 and is currently the Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. Luis comes from an analytics background, leveraging his data skills with multiple years of experience in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting.

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