Celtics vs Heat Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – Eastern Conference Finals Game 1

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The Miami Heat (44-38) will try to pull off an upset as 8.5-point underdogs for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, and will face off against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden on Wednesday, beginning at 8:30 PM ET on TNT. The over/under is 212.5 points for the matchup.

How to bet Celtics vs. Heat

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 8.5 points, with sportsbooks listing the Celtics as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Celtics have -371 odds to pick up the win, while the Heat are listed at +295 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 212.5 points.

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Celtics vs. Heat Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Wednesday, May 17, 2023
  • Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: TNT
  • Location: Boston, Massachusetts
  • Arena: TD Garden

Celtics vs. Heat Betting Trends

The Celtics have played 82 games, with 44 wins against the spread. Boston has been the favorite in 74 games this season and has come away with the win 53 times (71.6%) in those contests. Celtics games this year have hit the over 52.4% of the time (43 out of 82 games with a set point total).

The Heat have 30 wins against the spread in 82 games this season. Miami has won 33.3% of the games this season it was the underdog on the moneyline (8-16). Heat games this year have hit the over on 40 of 82 set point totals (48.8%).

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Potential Starting Lineups and Key Players


Celtics Leaders
Jayson Tatum 74 30.1 8.8 4.6 1.1 0.7 3.2
Jaylen Brown 67 26.6 6.9 3.5 1.1 0.4 2.4
Malcolm Brogdon 67 14.9 4.2 3.7 0.7 0.3 2
Derrick White 82 12.4 3.6 3.9 0.7 0.9 1.8
Marcus Smart 61 11.5 3.1 6.3 1.5 0.4 1.9


Heat Leaders
Jimmy Butler 64 22.9 5.9 5.3 1.8 0.3 0.6
Bam Adebayo 75 20.4 9.2 3.2 1.2 0.8 0
Max Strus 80 11.5 3.2 2.1 0.5 0.2 2.5
Kyle Lowry 55 11.2 4.1 5.1 1 0.4 1.9
Caleb Martin 71 9.6 4.8 1.6 1 0.4 1.2
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Celtics vs. Heat Injury Report

Heat: Victor Oladipo: Out (Knee), Tyler Herro: Out (Hand)

What you need to know about the Boston Celtics

Boston has been thriving at both ends of the court this year, ranking fourth-best in the NBA in points per game (117.9) and fourth-best in points allowed per game (111.4). The Celtics are scoring 120.5 points per game this season when playing at home, which is 5.1 more points than they’re averaging away from home (115.4). The Celtics have been putting up 114.9 points per game in their last 10 appearances, an average that’s a little lower than the 117.9 they’ve scored over the course of the 2022-23 campaign.

Boston sports a 37.7% three-point percentage this season (sixth-ranked in NBA), but it has really provided a lift by sinking 16 threes per contest (second-best). Of the shots attempted by the Celtics in 2022-23, 52% of them have been two-pointers (62% of the team’s made baskets) and 48% have been from beyond the arc (38%).

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What you need to know about the Miami Heat

Offensively Miami is the worst squad in the league (109.5 points per game). But on defense it is second-best (109.8 points allowed per game). At home the Heat are putting up 111.4 points per game, 3.9 more than they are averaging on the road (107.5). While the Heat are putting up 109.5 points per game in 2022-23, they have improved that mark over their past 10 games, amassing 111.6 a contest.

Miami is 16th in the NBA in 3-pointers made (12 per game) and fourth-worst in 3-point percentage (34.4%). The Heat attempt 59.2% percent of their shots from inside the 3-point line, and 40.8% percent from beyond it. In terms of makes, 69.5% of the Heat’s baskets are 2-pointers, and 30.5% are 3-pointers.

Celtics vs. Heat Predictions and Pick

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You can bet on Celtics vs. Heat at every legal online sportsbook. For more NBA odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NBA prop odds, check out the latest NBA lines as well as our guide to the best NBA betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Celtics vs. Heat picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Luis Escalante

Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014 and is currently the Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. Luis comes from an analytics background, leveraging his data skills with multiple years of experience in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting.

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